Polymarket Bot is a desktop trading app for 5m/15m UP-DOWN markets. It streams live orderbook, trades, spot, and implied prices, estimates fair probability with selectable models, then executes rule-based strategies in Paper or Live mode across multiple symbols.

How It Works

1. Ingests real-time market data (book, trades, spot, implied).

2. Computes model fair value for UP vs DOWN.

3. Converts fair value into executable edge after fee, spread, liquidity, and lag checks.

4. Applies risk/execution rules: TP/SL, partial TP, hold-winner, cutoff, force-exit, cooldown.

5. Places orders, tracks positions, logs events, and updates telemetry.

Features

• Supports 5m and 15m market workflows.

• Multi-model engine (regime, order-flow, execution-aware, spread-based).

• Unified Paper/Live logic for realistic testing before deployment.

• Advanced controls: threshold, TP/SL, partial TP, cooldown, max entries, min hold.

• Filters: Meta-labeling, online calibration (Platt/Isotonic), SPRT, Kelly sizing.

• Orderbook-aware risk gates and restart recovery for operational continuity.

Safety Notice

• Trading prediction markets is high risk and can result in full loss of capital.

• Always validate in Paper mode before enabling Live mode.

• Live fills can differ from expected due to spread, slippage, latency, and liquidity gaps.

• Monitor continuously; do not assume unattended operation is safe.

• This software is a tooling system, not financial advice.