
The Looming Pension Crisis
The Pension Time Bomb: Inflation, Bonds & Bitcoin
Demographics flipped the pyramid. Fewer workers, more retirees, growing liabilities. For decades, the 60/40 playbook hid the problem falling rates lifted bonds, equities did the rest. That regime is over. We’re living with sticky inflation, policy whiplash, and “safe” bonds delivering negative real returns. When your base asset bleeds purchasing power, every liability promise becomes fragile.
This briefing connects the dots: aging societies, upside-down dependency ratios, rate volatility, and the mechanical limits of the old hedge (bonds). It’s not about panic, it’s about math. If your liability stream is denominated in fiat and your hedge no longer hedges, you need a new base assumption.
Enter Bitcoin: not as a bet on price but as a neutral, fixed-supply reserve asset that isn’t anyone’s liability. The point is not “up only.” It’s convexity, diversification of monetary risk, and the option value of a parallel settlement layer.
Inside: the three signals that matter (real yields vs liabilities, solvency gaps, policy drift), a scenario map for the next decade, and long-horizon principles for portfolios that must actually pay out in real terms.
No dopamine trading. No hero calls. Just positioning for a world where the old hedges don’t work like they used to.
Read it in minutes, think about it for weeks.
Education, not financial or tax advice. Size positions responsibly.

