Bad MMA Bets

Model-driven MMA fight handicapping. Get data-backed picks before every card YTD: 279-623 (30.9%) Total Risked 660.35u✅+74.65u (11.3% ROI)...

Location hidden

•

•Created by

Gabcast

2 joined

Home

Products Reviews

Gabcast

@gabcast·6d

Pinned post

Model Edge & Card Preview | Bad MMA Bets

Free breakdown: this season’s mathematical edge

YTD: 279-623 (30.9%)

Total Risked 660.35u✅+74.65u (11.3% ROI)

ML: 209-166(55.7%)✅+67.88u (11% ROI)

Parlays: 52-394(11.7%)✅+8.73u(24.1% ROI)

Prop: 18-63(22%)❌ -1.96u (-23.1% ROI)

The model does not chase winners. It prices each fight independently, then flags spots where the market is off our number. That is why a ~31% overall hit rate can still print double-digit ROI: we size into overlay, not into public favorites.

How it works in short:

We generate a fair probability for each side.
We compare that to the posted line.
We only fire when the gap is large enough to cover juice and still leave expected value.

Full card breakdowns, unit sizes, and live adjustments live in the member Discord and Fight Chat. Join Bad MMA Picks for the rest of the card.

Gabcast

@gabcast·6d

UFC EDMONTON

Joaquin Buckley 2u +111

Kyle daukaus 3u -195

Joel faglier 1u -112

Mackenzie Stiller .45u +227

Steven Koslow 3u -147

Cody Chovancek 3u -131

Gabcast

@gabcast·Oct 14

Recap for DWCS

2-0✅+2.03u

Gabcast

@gabcast·Oct 13

Dropping some free plays for everyone!

DWCS Week 10

Luis Francischinelli 1u -245

Douglas da Lapa 3u -185

Lines have moved for the better.

If I see interest on here, I’ll keep dropping these!

Gabcast

@gabcast·Apr 6

Pinned post

Gambling is a fickle thing. That's exactly why I built the model, to remove my own bias and just follow the data.

With a betting sample size of almost 3,000 bets, I've been able to identify exactly which parts of the model are profitable and which aren't. Cold streaks happen. Hot streaks happen. I can't promise immediate success (nobody can). What I can offer is a system that has proven profitable long term.

No guarantees in gambling. But you can take emotion out of it and play the numbers. That's how you beat the books. Not with one massive parlay but with consistent, disciplined results.

YTD results are in my bio but here are lifetime results -

As of 10/12/2026

Total:1643-2330✅️207.95u

Some plays are tracked on Betmma.tips/badmma, Dubclub, and Juice reel. All can’t be tracked because I also bet regional MMA which isn't always supported but there is a time stamp for every single bet.

Gabcast

@gabcast·Apr 6

Pinned post

This is where the model lives.

Bad MMA Bets is built around a proprietary data model I've been developing and refining to find real edge in UFC and MMA betting.

YTD: 279-623 (30.9%)

Total Risked 660.35u✅+74.65u (11.3% ROI)

ML: 209-166(55.7%)✅+67.88u (11% ROI)

Parlays: 52-394(11.7%)✅+8.73u(24.1% ROI)

Prop: 18-63(22%)❌ -1.96u (-23.1% ROI)

Every bet is logged and posted publicly.

Welcome to the group. Let's eat. 🤙