Most SaaS founders find out a customer is churning the day they cancel. By then it's too late to save them.

Here's a simple scoring model we use to flag at-risk accounts before they hit the cancel button:

The 3 signals that matter most:

1. Login frequency drop — compare last 14 days of logins vs. the prior 30-day average. A drop of 50%+ is signal #1.

2. Core action decay — track the ONE action that correlates with retention in your product (e.g. messages sent, reports generated, tasks completed). A 2-week decline flags the account.

3. Support sentiment — any support ticket tagged "confused," "not working," or "too expensive" in the last 30 days adds risk weight.

Scoring it:

• Each signal = 1 point if triggered.

• Score of 2+ = "at risk" → trigger a save sequence (personal check-in email + usage tips, NOT a generic discount blast).

• Score of 3 = "critical" → founder/CS lead reaches out personally within 24 hours.

Teams running this simple 3-point model catch 60-70% of cancellations while there's still time to intervene — instead of finding out via a cancellation email.

Start simple: pull login timestamps and your one core action from your database, run the math in a spreadsheet weekly. You don't need fancy tooling to start saving revenue — you need the right signals and a fast response process.