Most people betting player props are doing it wrong. They see a big name, pick the over, and hope for the best. Here's the problem — you're betting the same lines that sportsbooks set using models way more sophisticated than your gut feeling.

The 3 biggest mistakes:

1. Chasing name value. Just because LeBron is playing doesn't mean his over is a good bet. Books price stars tighter because they know that's where the public money goes.

1. Ignoring matchup context. A pitcher's strikeout prop means nothing without knowing who's in the opposing lineup. A guard's assist prop changes completely based on who's out with injuries.

1. No edge framework. If you can't explain WHY a line is off, you're just gambling. Real profit comes from identifying where the model and the book disagree.

I built a statistical model that does exactly this — finds the gaps between projected performance and posted lines across NBA and MLB props. Every morning I post the top plays with the clearest edges.

If you're tired of losing on props and want a data-driven approach, The Prop Buddha is open.