Edge Analytics

NRL try scorer tips and betting analytics for Australia — powered by the Mismatch Model. We map where teams attack vs. where opponents conce...
Marlow, GB
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EAAProfile picture@edgeanalyticsadmin·Mar 26

Round 4 is live — and the tool just got a major upgrade.

We've rolled out a fully updated interface for Round 4, and it's the biggest improvement yet. Both the free tier and full access members have been upgraded with the new layout, making it easier than ever to read signals, dig into positional mismatches, and back your picks with data.

What's new in the updated interface:

  • Cleaner round summary with strong signals surfaced at the top — sorted by signal strength so you know exactly where the edge is

  • Per-game positional breakdown tables with Attack Rank, Defence Rank, and analyst notes for every position

  • Try Location Heat Maps for both teams in every game, showing where tries are being scored and conceded across the 2026 season

  • Player name data layered into position rows for full context

  • Colour-coded rank system (green = strong, orange = mid, red = weak) for instant visual reads

  • Season-level performance stats displayed at the top: 56.1% win rate, +34.64u profit, +52.2% ROI through 3 rounds

Free tier this week: Sea Eagles vs Roosters is fully unlocked for everyone. Two strong signals flagged on the Roosters — Right Winger (#2 ATT vs #17 DEF) and Front Row (#2 ATT vs #16 DEF). That's the data, free, no subscription needed.

Full access unlocks all 8 games, all 15 signals, every heat map, and the complete positional breakdown for Round 4.

Please note: Manly's centre position are mixed up. There is no edge for either player, so both Garrick and Koula aren't very relevant.

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EAAProfile picture@edgeanalyticsadmin·Mar 23

🏉 NRL Round 3 Results — Try Scorer Mismatch Model


17/32 ✅ | +7.87U | +$393.50


Another profitable round. The model continues to find structural edges that the market underprices — not gut feel, not hot takes, just positional mismatch data doing its thing.


📊 Season record: 46/82 ✅ | +34.64U | +$1,732 for a $50 unit punter


Standout wins this round:

🟢 Robert Toia (RC) — $4.00 +1.50U | Roosters ranked #4 for RC attack, Panthers #12 for conceding

🟢 Tom Jenkins (LW) — $1.80 +0.80U | 4 tries in first 2 games, Roosters conceded 2 last week

🟢 Jacob Preston (2R) — $2.80 +0.90U | 0.8 TR (rank 1) vs opponent rank 13 conceding


Round 4 analysis drops Tuesday for Full Access members 🔍

Changes are coming to the tool this week. DON'T MISS OUT!!

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EAAProfile picture@edgeanalyticsadmin·Mar 18

🏉 Round 3 Analysis — Now Live

This week's Try Scorer Mismatch Model is live for Full Access members.

You'll find two versions inside this week:

📊 Primary Table (recommended) Based on 2025 full season data combined with 2026 Rounds 1-2. This is the most reliable version at this stage of the season — larger sample size means more stable rankings and more trustworthy signals.

📊 Early Season Table Based on 2026 Rounds 1-2 only. Rankings are volatile with just 2 rounds of data but worth cross-referencing against the primary table. As the season progresses this version will become increasingly valuable.

How to use them: Start with the Primary Table to identify strong signals. Cross-reference with the Early Season Table — if a player ranks highly in both, that's your highest confidence pick this week.

As always, the Strong Signal badges ⚡ highlight the standout mismatches. Back your own judgement from there.

Good luck for Round 3 🔥

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EAAProfile picture@edgeanalyticsadmin·Mar 12

🏉 NRL Round 2 Tonight: Broncos vs Eels — Matchup Breakdown & Bet Finder Live

Game kicks off in a couple of hours — here's what the data is telling us.


Key Matchup Plays


Josiah Karapani (Broncos Left Winger) — Try Rate of 0.80 last season (Rank 4 across all left wingers). The Eels are conceding at 0.92 tries per game to opposing left wingers, ranking them 16th in the league on that edge. That's one of the worst defensive records against that position. Eels could've easily conceded to the Left Wing last week.


Josh Addo-Carr (Eels Left Winger) — Try Rate of 0.76 (Rank 5). Broncos have been leaking on their right edge defensively, Jenkins had a double last week. Another quality play on the left wing tonight.


If you're looking to build a multi — stacking both left wingers is not a bad shout at all. The data supports both sides of the field being active tonight.


Bet Finders Are Live 🔍


The bet finders for tonight's game are available now on the free tier. If you haven't checked them out yet, jump in — they'll highlight the best value plays across the market based on these matchup edges.


Get your bets locked in before kickoff. Let's have a night. 🤝

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EAAProfile picture@edgeanalyticsadmin·Mar 9
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📊 NRL Round 1 Results: +20.39 Units Profit

The Try Scorer analysis tool went live for NRL Round 1 this weekend. Here are the verified results across all 8 games:


31 bets tracked 18 Wins, 13 lossed. 20.39 units profit.


At $50/unit, that's $1,019 profit in a single round. At $100/unit, that's $2,039.


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Standout picks:


🏉 Tom Trbojevic (Sea Eagles v Raiders) — Odds: 3.2, Result: ✅ W (+2.2u)

🏉 Tolu Koula (Sea Eagles v Raiders) — Odds: 3.9, Result: ✅ W (+2.9u)

🏉 Alex Johnson (Dolphins v Rabbitohs) — Odds: 2.25, Result: ✅ W (+1.25u)

🏉 Kulikefu Finefeuiaki (Dolphins v Rabbitohs) — Odds: 5.0, Result: ✅ W (+2.0u)

🏉 Graham/Wighton 2+ (Dolphins v Rabbitohs) — Odds: 4.5, Result: ✅ W (+1.75u)


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How it works:


The tool analyses try rates, positional matchups and opposition defensive records to flag bets with a statistical edge. You get every flagged pick with the reasoning behind it — not just "back this player", but exactly why the data says there's value.


This isn't tipping. It's a tool that does the analysis for you.


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What Full Access members get:


✅ Full breakdown of the data behind each selection for every single game for the 2026 NRL season

✅ Real-time bet tracker with running P&L


The free tier gives you a taste. Full Access gives you the edge.


7-day free trial — cancel anytime if the tool doesn't deliver.


👉 Weekly access ($19.99/wk):

👉 Monthly access ($64.99/mo):


Round 2 Drops Tuesday. Don't miss out!!

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EAAProfile picture@edgeanalyticsadmin·Mar 5
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EAAProfile picture@edgeanalyticsadmin·Mar 5
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EAAProfile picture@edgeanalyticsadmin·Mar 5
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