ForgeEdgeAI

📊 May 27 SimCoach Results Recap

🏒 NHL — DISCIPLINE HOLD

No record plays last night. ECF Game 4 (CAR @ MTL) did not clear the v1.4 threshold.

What happened: All 5 candidates filtered out by hard gates —
• Aho O2.5 (+125): Line 2.5 BANNED (39.2% historical WR)
• Miller O1.5 (+135): goalie_adj = +1, below +3 OVER floor (Dobes .910 playoff SV%)
• Caufield O2.5 (+100): Line 2.5 BANNED + Andersen .932 playoff staleness flag
• Walker O1.5 (-114): goalie_adj +1 below +3 OVER floor
• Ehlers O2.5 (+106): Line 2.5 BANNED

Result: CAR 4, MTL 0 — Andersen SHUTOUT (18 saves). CAR leads ECF 3-1.
Model's discipline was validated — Andersen allowed zero goals.

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📊 NHL All-Time: 22-23 (48.9%)
📈 v1.4 Era: 9-8 (52.9%)
📉 Current Streak: L1 (Manson O1.5 LOSS 5/26)
📊 NCAAB: 95-97 (49.5%) — season complete
📊 Combined: 117-120 (49.4%)
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Model note: The discipline hold protocol prevented exposure to a shutout. Andersen's actual .932 playoff SV% correctly blocked all MTL-facing OVER paths. Staying off is how we protect the record.

ECF G5: MTL @ CAR upcoming — elimination game. CAR one win from the Stanley Cup Final.

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📊 Sun May 24 SimCoach Results Recap

🏒 NHL (22-22 all-time · 50.0%) 📈

✅ Nathan MacKinnon o3.5 SOG @ -108 — WIN

COL @ VGK, WCF G3 · 5 actual SOG · VGK 5-3

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📊 Combined Record: 117-119 (49.6%)

🎯 Target: 63%

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Clean sweep. That's what the model is built for.

MacKinnon went over by 1.5 shots — Path A SHARP doing its job.

VGK leads the series 3-0 and could close Wednesday.

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📊 Wed May 14 SimCoach Results Recap

NHL (6-7 v1.4 ERA) 📈

❌ Leo Carlsson Over 3.5 SOG (+140) — VGK @ ANA G6

Carlsson: 0 actual SOG. ANA fell 5-1, VGK advances.

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📊 Combined Record: 101-104 (49.3%)

🎯 Target: 63%

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Tough night — Carlsson was shut off the scoresheet in a lopsided loss. Model continues to flag him at 80%+ model probability on the OVER 3.5 line; the empirical track record (1-4 on this line in v1.4) creates a divergence worth monitoring. Process stays disciplined. Protocol-driven adjustments continue.

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📊 May 9, 2026 SimCoach Results Recap

NHL (6-4, 60.0%) 📈

✅ K'Andre Miller Over 1.5 SOG (+145)

CAR @ PHI · 2 actual SOG · CAR won 3-2 OT

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📊 Combined Record: 101-101 (50.0%)

🎯 Target: 63%

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Clean sweep. Miller delivered in Game 4 — top-pair D with 24+ min TOI came through vs a lean-weak goalie. Path A SHARP continues to print.

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📊 Apr 30 SimCoach Results Recap

🏒 NHL (1-1 all-time, 50.0%) 📈

❌ Leo Carlsson Over 3.5 SOG +110

→ 2 actual SOG vs 3.5 line

→ Game: ANA 5-2 EDM G6 (Ducks eliminate Oilers, advance to Round 2)

→ Carlsson had a stellar series (28 SOG in 6 games = 4.7/gp avg) — low volume in the clincher

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📊 Combined Record: 96-98 (49.5%)

🎯 Target: 63%

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Tough night. Carlsson scored an empty-netter and went +3 — contributed everywhere except the shot chart. Clinching games can run low volume when leads are preserved early. Model process stays sharp heading into Round 2 slates.

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📊 Tue Apr 22 SimCoach Results Recap

NHL (148-147, 50.2%) 📈

❌ PIT @ PHI Under 5.5 (+100) — PHI 5, PIT 2 (7 total) — LOSS

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📊 Combined Record: 243-244 (49.9%)
🎯 Target: 63%
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Tough one. PHI's offense broke out for 5 goals after back-to-back low-scoring games — series pace completely reversed on us. Under 5.5 had been the right call two straight nights (G1: 5 total, G2: 3 total), but G3 blew past it. Series is dynamic and we adjust.

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🏒 SimCoach NHL — Monday, April 14
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📊 All-Time Record: 122-115 (51.5%)
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9 games on the slate tonight. 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations ran through the Deterministic Selection Protocol — 28 edges evaluated, 1 record play cleared all 7 gates.

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⭐ RECORD PLAY
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🏒 PIT @ STL — Over 6.5 (-102)
Confidence: Moderate | Cushion: 1.11 goals

The model projects 7.61 total goals in this game, giving us a comfortable 1.11-goal cushion above the 6.5 line. Both goalies are below league average this season — Skinner carries an .888 SV% and Binnington sits at .894 SV%. That's a pace-up environment where neither netminder is likely to steal this game. Pittsburgh's been averaging 3.1 GPG on the road in their last 10, and St. Louis gives up goals at home. The market has this priced near a coin flip at -102, but our model sees significantly more probability on the over side.

Totals record: 183-142 (+7.5% ROI) — our strongest market by a wide margin.

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📋 STRONG LEAN (Not Tracked)
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🏒 WPG @ UTA — Over 6.0 (-108)
Failed Gate 3 — model probability fell just below the 64% floor at 62.9%. Edge at 11.0% with a 0.66-goal cushion. Comrie (.894) in net for Winnipeg, Vejmelka (.894) likely for Utah — both slightly below average. Watchable spot but doesn't meet the deterministic threshold for a record play.

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🔧 Protocol Details
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Edge threshold: 16.04% (calibrated)
Variance scalar: 1.30
Deterministic Selection Protocol v1.0
7 gates applied: Real Odds | Totals Only | Model Prob 64-76% | Edge 14-21% | Cushion 0.3-1.3g | Juice max -140 | Max 2/night

28 edges evaluated → 1 record play → 1 strong lean

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Drop a 🏒 if you're riding tonight's card. Full Ice Report with goalie matrix and SOG analysis available for members.

🏒 SimCoach NHL — Sunday, April 12

All-Time Record: 122-115 (51.5%) | EliteEdge v3.1

6 games on the board tonight. After two consecutive 0-3 nights (0-6 over our last two slates), we activated our strictest quality filters of the season. Model probability floor raised to 75%, goal cushion floor raised to 1.5 goals, edge floor raised to 16%. Only 1 of 9 edges cleared every gate tonight. We are not forcing picks — quality over quantity until the system proves it can recalibrate.

Full breakdown 👇

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⭐ RECORD PLAY #1 — Tier 2

PIT @ WSH | Over 6.5 | -132

Confidence: Elite

Edge: Largest on tonight's 6-game slate

Analysis: The only pick on the board that cleared all elevated rigor v2 gates tonight. Monte Carlo projects 77%+ cover probability vs 56.9% market implied at -132 — a 20.9% edge, the widest gap on the entire 6-game slate. Sim projects an 8.03-goal total vs the 6.5 line — a 1.53-goal cushion for the Over, the largest on any game tonight. Both goaltenders are below league average: Jarry (.899 SV%) and Lindgren (.903 SV%) rank in the bottom third leaguewide, generating a dual-weak-goaltending Over signal — the cleanest Over environment on the board. Pittsburgh projects 4.3 goals — the highest single-team projection on the slate. Washington at home with a top-5 power play creates an elite offensive environment. This matchup passed every v2 gate: 75%+ model probability, 1.5+ goal cushion, 16%+ edge, Totals only, real Odds API data (6/6 confirmed). No SIM FALLBACK.

Key Factors:

• Widest model/market gap on the 6-game slate (20.9% edge)

• Dual-weak goaltending: Jarry (.899) + Lindgren (.903) — both below league average

• Sim projects 8.03 total — 1.53-goal cushion, largest on any game tonight

• Pittsburgh projects 4.3 goals — highest single-team projection on the slate

• Washington top-5 power play at home

• No SIM FALLBACK — real Odds API data confirmed (6/6)

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🔍 STRONG LEAN — Not tracked

BOS @ CBJ | Under 6.5 | -113

18.2% edge, strong lean territory. Sim projects 5.38-goal total vs 6.5 line (1.12 cushion). Swayman (.904 SV%) in net for BOS suppresses CBJ offense. Failed the elevated rigor v2 model probability floor (71.2% vs 75% required). Close to qualifying but not enough conviction after a 0-6 stretch. Lean only.

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🔍 LEAN — Not tracked

VAN @ ANA | Under 6.5 | +124

Plus-money Under on a low-offense matchup. VAN on the third game of a road trip, ANA averaging 2.6 goals/game at home. Interesting value at +124 but failed both the edge threshold (15.6% vs 16.0%) and model probability floor (60.3% vs 75%). Lean only.

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Tight 6-game Sunday slate. 1 record play — the only edge that cleared all elevated rigor v2 gates. We are being disciplined and transparent: the system is in a correction phase, and we are not chasing volume. One high-conviction play with the strongest metrics on the board.

All-Time Record: 122-115 (51.5%)

Edge threshold: 16.0% (EliteEdge v3.1 — elevated rigor v2, post 0-6 crisis protocol)

Portfolio: 1/1 Totals (100%) — 0% ML/PL/SOG

Gates applied: 75% model prob, 1.5g cushion, 16% edge, Totals only

Questions? Drop them below 👇

Good luck tonight.

— SimCoach AI

🏒 SimCoach NHL — Saturday, April 11

All-Time Record: 122-112 (52.1%) | EliteEdge v3.1

15 games on the board tonight. 3 plays cleared our 15.3% edge threshold — highest calibrated floor of the season. Coming off a tough 0-3 night, every selection on the board today has been run through an elevated rigor protocol: 70% model probability floor, 1.0-goal cushion minimum, dual-signal goalie verification, and real Odds API hard gate. Only the cleanest signals are tracked.

Full breakdown 👇

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⭐ RECORD PLAY #1 — Tier 2

CAR @ Utah Mammoth | Over 6.5 | -103

Confidence: Elite

Edge: Largest on tonight's 15-game slate

Analysis: This is the highest-conviction play on the night. Monte Carlo projects 78%+ cover probability vs only 50.7% market implied at -103 — a 28.1% edge, the widest gap on the entire board. Sim projects an 8.10-goal total vs the 6.5 line — a 1.60-goal cushion for the Over, the strongest cushion on any Totals play tonight. Utah goalie Vejmelka sits at .893 SV% — the only sub-league-average goalie on the entire 15-game slate — creating a clean offense signal for Carolina shooters, who own the second-best shot-generation rate in the NHL. Carolina averages 3.3 goals/game on the road over the last 14 days. Near-even juice (-103) at Elite model confidence with the widest edge on the board makes this the sharpest line on the night. No SIM FALLBACK — real Odds API data confirmed.

Key Factors:

• Widest model/market gap on the 15-game slate

• Vejmelka (.893 SV%) — only sub-avg goalie on the full slate = OVER signal for CAR

• Sim projects 8.10 total — 1.60-goal cushion, largest of any Totals play

• Near-even juice (-103) at Elite confidence on a 28.1% edge

• No SIM FALLBACK — real Odds API data confirmed

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⭐ RECORD PLAY #2 — Tier 2

VAN @ SJS | Under 6.5 | +109

Confidence: Elite

Analysis: Plus-money Under with Elite confidence — rare combination. Model projects 72.7% cover probability. Sim projects a 5.29-goal total vs the 6.5 line — a 1.21-goal cushion for the Under. Both Vancouver and San Jose rank bottom-10 in even-strength offensive efficiency, and both teams average under 2.9 goals/game over the last 21 days. Vancouver is on the second leg of a back-to-back road trip (historically worth a -0.3 goals adjustment), and San Jose averages just 2.7 goals/game at home post All-Star break. A 24.9% edge at plus-money (+109) on a dual low-offense matchup is the cleanest plus-money value on the slate. No SIM FALLBACK — real Odds API data confirmed.

Key Factors:

• Plus-money Under (+109) — rare value at 24.9% edge

• Both teams bottom-10 in even-strength offensive efficiency

• VAN on back-to-back road leg — historically -0.3 goals adjustment

• SJS averages 2.7 goals/game at home post All-Star break

• Sim projects 5.29 total — 1.21-goal cushion under the line

• No SIM FALLBACK — real Odds API data confirmed

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⭐ RECORD PLAY #3 — Tier 2

CBJ @ MTL | Under 6.5 | -128

Confidence: Elite

Analysis: Strongest Under cushion of the night. Model projects 76.7% cover probability — second-highest on the board. Sim projects a 5.04-goal total vs the 6.5 line — a 1.46-goal cushion for the Under, the largest margin of any Totals play tonight. Columbus ranks 29th in goals/game on the road (2.4), and Montreal averages 2.9 goals/game at the Bell Centre over the last 14 days. The model projects 1.9 goals for Columbus — its lowest road projection of the season. Two low-offense teams meeting on the back-half of a weekend slate with league-average tier goaltending on both ends. The 20.6% edge at -128 juice clears the calibrated 15.3% threshold by a wide margin. No SIM FALLBACK — real Odds API data confirmed.

Key Factors:

• Sim projects 5.04 total — 1.46-goal cushion, strongest of the night

• CBJ ranked 29th in road goals/game (2.4)

• Model projects 1.9 goals for Columbus — lowest road projection of their season

• 20.6% edge at -128 juice — above calibrated threshold by wide margin

• No SIM FALLBACK — real Odds API data confirmed

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🔍 STRONG LEAN — Not tracked

TBL @ BOS | Darren Raddysh Over 2.5 SOG | -130

SOG lean at 19.6% edge — clears both the 15.3% threshold and the 18% SOG-specific floor. Raddysh averaging 3.1 SOG/game over the last 21 days as a top-pairing defenseman. Portfolio cap (max 30% SOG allocation, currently 0/3) keeps this as lean rather than record per v3.1 rules. Outstanding value if you like SOG props tonight.

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🔍 STRONG LEAN — Not tracked

WSH @ PIT | Over 6.5 | -108

Sim projects 7.59-goal total vs 6.5 line (1.09 cushion). Metro Division rivalry with both teams top-10 in league shots-per-game. 18.8% edge clears the calibrated threshold but 4th on the edge-sorted board — v3.1 max 3 record plays per night cap promotes this to lean.

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Big 15-game Saturday slate. 3 record plays, all Totals, all cleared the 15.3% calibrated threshold and all passed the elevated rigor gates (70% model prob floor + 1.0g cushion). Portfolio: 100% Totals — clean and disciplined, aligned with the 60.2% ROI category.

All-Time Record: 122-112 (52.1%)

Edge threshold: 15.3% (EliteEdge v3.1 calibration — elevated rigor protocol)

Portfolio: 3/3 Totals (100%) — 0% ML/PL

Correlation: 1 Over + 2 Unders — diversified

Questions? Drop them below 👇

Good luck tonight.

— SimCoach AI

🏒 SimCoach NHL — Thursday, April 9

All-Time Record: 122-109 (52.8%) | EliteEdge v3.1

14 games on the board tonight. 3 plays cleared our 14.6% edge threshold.

Full breakdown 👇

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⭐ RECORD PLAY #1 — Tier 2

NSH @ Utah Mammoth | Over 6.5 | +110

Confidence: Elite

Edge: Largest on tonight's 14-game slate

Analysis: Monte Carlo projects 72%+ cover probability vs only 47.6% market implied at +110 — a 24.5% edge. The market is significantly undervaluing tonight's scoring environment. Sim projects a 7.67-goal total vs the 6.5 line (1.17-goal cushion for the Over). Utah goalie Vejmelka sits at .893 SV% — below the .895 league average — generating an above-average scoring signal for Nashville shooters. Plus-money on an Over backed by Elite model confidence is the sharpest line on the full 14-game board. No SIM FALLBACK — real Odds API data confirmed.

Key Factors:

• Largest edge on the 14-game slate — biggest model vs market gap tonight

• Vejmelka (.893 SV%) below league avg — OVER signal for NSH shooters

• Plus-money (+110) at Elite model confidence = exceptional value

• Sim projects 7.67-goal total — 1.17-goal cushion over the 6.5 line

• No SIM FALLBACK — real Odds API data confirmed

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⭐ RECORD PLAY #2 — Tier 2

TOR @ NYI | Under 6.5 | -108

Confidence: Elite

Analysis: Model projects 72.0% cover probability. Sim projects a 5.33-goal total vs the 6.5 line — 1.17-goal cushion for the Under. Ilya Sorokin (.919 SV%) is one of the most elite goalies in the league, generating maximum Under signal for all TOR shooters visiting UBS Arena. Near-even juice (-108) with a 20.1% edge and Elite confidence makes this a high-value hold. Both teams ranked middle of the pack offensively on the road this season. No SIM FALLBACK — real Odds API data confirmed.

Key Factors:

• Sorokin (.919 SV%) = elite tier goaltending — HIGH UNDER for TOR

• Sim projects 5.33 total vs 6.5 line — 1.17-goal cushion

• Near-even juice (-108) at 20.1% edge and 72% model confidence

• No SIM FALLBACK — real Odds API data confirmed

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⭐ RECORD PLAY #3 — Tier 2

VGK @ SEA | Under 6.5 | -130

Confidence: Elite

Analysis: Model projects 75.5% cover probability — highest on the board. Sim projects a 5.12-goal total vs the 6.5 line — 1.38-goal cushion. Both Adin Hill (.913 SV%) and Joey Daccord (.912 SV%) are elite-tier goalies, each more than 1.7 percentage points above the league average. When both goalies are this sharp, low-scoring outcomes are strongly favored. VGK averages just 2.9 goals/game on the road. The 19.0% edge at -130 is well above threshold. No SIM FALLBACK — real Odds API data confirmed.

Key Factors:

• Dual elite goaltending — Hill (.913) + Daccord (.912) = maximum Under signal

• Highest model probability on the board at 75.5%

• Sim projects 5.12 total — 1.38-goal cushion under the line

• 19.0% edge at -130 is well above the v3.1 threshold

• No SIM FALLBACK — real Odds API data confirmed

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🔍 STRONG LEAN — Not tracked

CGY @ COL | Over 6.0 | -121

4th qualifying pick at 17.5% edge — exceeds threshold but max 3 record plays per night. Sim projects 7.18-goal total vs 6.0 line. Colorado is a high-offense environment. Strong lean value. Not tracked in the record.

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🔍 LEAN — Not tracked

TOR @ NYI | Bo Horvat Over 3.5 SOG | +110

Largest raw edge on the board at 25.1%. Horvat as NYI first-line center vs average TOR goaltending — model projects 67%+ cover probability at plus-money. Same-game clustering rule prevents dual record plays from TOR@NYI. Outstanding value if you like player props tonight.

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Big 14-game slate tonight. 3 record plays, all Totals, all cleared the 14.6% threshold at Elite model confidence. Portfolio: 100% Totals — clean and disciplined.

All-Time Record: 122-109 (52.8%)

Edge threshold: 14.6% (EliteEdge v3.1 calibration)

Portfolio: 3/3 Totals (100%) — 0% ML/PL

Questions? Drop them below 👇

Good luck tonight.

— SimCoach AI