Strategic Fuel Planner

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Sheryl Mendoza

@sherylmendoza·7h

⛽ Weekly Fuel Forecast: Oct 16–23 — Third Weekly Drop to $4.33 as Crude Nears $100

The third weekly drop is here. Crude is not playing along.

AAA’s national average fell about 4 cents this week to $4.33 as of October 16. That is still the first $4 October on record, and the 158th day this year above $4. A year ago regular was $3.06. That’s still +$1.27 per gallon. Diesel went the other way, up to $6.33/gal from $6.28 last week, off a $6.53 record on September 22.

The pump is still working off last week’s $88 crude. This week WTI is back near $97, Brent near $106. That lag will not last.

📊 This Week's Numbers

National average: $4.33/gal (down ~4¢ week-over-week, +$1.27 year-over-year, roughly flat month-over-month)
Cheapest states: North Carolina ($3.67), Georgia ($3.76), Texas ($3.82), Tennessee ($3.87)
Most expensive: California ($6.22), Hawaii ($5.64), Nevada ($5.42), Washington ($5.41)
Crude oil: WTI ~$97/bbl (Thursday settle $97.97), Brent ~$106/bbl
Diesel: $6.33/gal, up this week, still historically extreme

🔥 3 Things Driving Prices Right Now

The pump dropped. Crude rallied. Last week WTI settled at $88. This week it printed $95, then $98. AAA says prices “aren’t budging much as crude oil prices remain high, once again nearing $100 per barrel.” Retail lags crude by 1–3 weeks. This 4-cent cut is old oil. The new oil is expensive.

Hormuz got worse. A container ship and a dry bulk carrier sank near the strait after projectile strikes. Iran said it is stepping up attacks. Kpler put daily Gulf flows at 11.62 million b/d in the week to October 13, down from a 17.15 million baseline. IEA members are speeding the remaining 100 million barrels of emergency stocks, including 20 million barrels of diesel. That caps the spike. It does not reopen the waterway.

Hurricane Isaias hit the crude tape. EIA crude inventories fell 8.6 million barrels to 415.6 million, 3% below the 5-year average, the steepest draw since February. Gasoline stocks built 3.5 million barrels as demand faded to 8.40 million b/d. Distillate drew 2.5 million barrels and sits ~12% below seasonal. Gasoline can ease a little more. Diesel cannot.

🌍 Find the Cheapest Gas Anywhere in the World

Our Smart Gas Finder works worldwide, not just the US. Type in Manila, London, São Paulo, Tokyo, or any city on Earth and instantly find the cheapest and nearest stations.

Pro members get full access to the Smart Gas Finder, detailed 2-week forecasts, regional breakdowns, and fill-up timing strategies.

👉 Upgrade to Fuel Planner Pro — stop overpaying at the pump.

Sheryl Mendoza

@sherylmendoza·Oct 9

⛽ Weekly Fuel Forecast: Oct 9–16 — National Average $4.36, First $4 October on Record

The second weekly drop is here. October is still making history.

AAA’s national average fell about 5 cents this week to $4.36 as of October 8. That is the first time US regular has ever averaged above $4 in October. A year ago it was $3.12. That’s still +$1.25 per gallon. Diesel eased to $6.28/gal from a $6.53 record on September 22.

Crude dipped into the $80s, then bounced back above $90. OPEC+ held November quotas. Hormuz is shooting again.

📊 This Week's Numbers

National average: $4.36/gal (down ~5¢ week-over-week, +$1.25 year-over-year, +21¢ month-over-month)
Cheapest states: Ohio ($3.71), Indiana ($3.72), Georgia ($3.84), Texas ($3.87)
Most expensive: California ($6.35), Hawaii ($5.64), Washington ($5.47), Nevada ($5.46)
Crude oil: WTI Wednesday settle $88.28, then back above $90
Diesel: $6.28/gal, off the $6.53 US record but still historically extreme

🔥 3 Things Driving Prices Right Now

The drop slowed. October is still a record. Last week was ~10 cents. This week is ~5. AAA calls these the highest prices ever for this time of year, and the first $4 October on record. A 5-cent cut after a record September is relief, not a new regime.

OPEC+ held. Hormuz started shooting again. The seven core members left November quotas unchanged at 31.01 million b/d on October 4. The same week, a tanker was hit off Qatar, Iran said the Hormuz oil route will be “closed,” and detectable transits fell to 7 vessels, the lowest since July 23. Quotas are not the constraint. Ships are.

G7 barrels vs a Gulf storm. G7 countries are releasing 100 million barrels of diesel and crude over four months. China halted most October fuel exports. Russia’s diesel ban runs through October 31. Hurricane Isaias is now a Gulf production and refinery risk. Stock releases can cap crude. A Gulf storm can undo that at the pump in days.

🌍 Find the Cheapest Gas Anywhere in the World

Our Smart Gas Finder works worldwide, not just the US. Type in Manila, London, São Paulo, Tokyo, or any city on Earth and instantly find the cheapest and nearest stations.

Pro members get full access to the Smart Gas Finder, detailed 2-week forecasts, regional breakdowns, and fill-up timing strategies.

👉 Upgrade to Fuel Planner Pro — stop overpaying at the pump.

Sheryl Mendoza

@sherylmendoza·Oct 2

⛽ Weekly Fuel Forecast: Oct 2–9 — National Average Dips to $4.40 After Record September

The first weekly drop is here. It is not a crash.

AAA’s national average fell about 10 cents this week to $4.40 as of October 2, after a record-setting September (monthly average $4.33, 50 cents above the old September record of $3.83 in 2023). Diesel came off its all-time high too, to $6.37/gal from a $6.53 record on September 22. A year ago, regular was $3.16. That’s still +$1.24 per gallon.

Crude is back in the $89–$90 range. The pump is finally following, except on the West Coast.

📊 This Week's Numbers

National average: $4.40/gal (down ~10¢ week-over-week, +$1.24 year-over-year, +28¢ month-over-month)
Cheapest states: Indiana ($3.79), Georgia ($3.91), Texas ($3.94), Louisiana ($3.96)
Most expensive: California ($6.40), Hawaii ($5.63), Washington ($5.49), Nevada ($5.49)
Crude oil: WTI ~$89/bbl, Brent ~$100/bbl (spread ~$10, down from ~$13 last week)
Diesel: $6.37/gal, off the $6.53 US record but still historically extreme

🔥 3 Things Driving Prices Right Now

Crude cracked. The pump is lagging, not collapsing. WTI settled near $90 midweek and is trading around $89 today after the EU floated an emergency stockpile release. Retail usually trails crude by 1–3 weeks. This week’s 10-cent drop is that lag starting to show. AAA still calls these the highest prices ever for this time of year.

Hormuz is “reopening” on paper and still shooting in the water. Gulf export flows bounced back enough to knock Brent off $102. The same week, three tankers (including a VLCC) were hit by unknown projectiles in the Strait of Hormuz. OPEC+ meets this weekend and is expected to leave November quotas unchanged. They cannot put extra barrels on the water while the strait is still a shooting gallery.

The diesel crunch went global. China halted October fuel exports. Russia extended its diesel export ban through October 31. Trump is still talking up a US diesel export ban, and admitted it could raise gasoline prices. EIA gasoline stocks fell again, to 204.4 million barrels, even as demand eased to 8.68 million b/d.

🌍 Find the Cheapest Gas Anywhere in the World

Our Smart Gas Finder works worldwide, not just the US. Type in Manila, London, São Paulo, Tokyo, or any city on Earth and instantly find the cheapest and nearest stations.

Pro members get full access to the Smart Gas Finder, detailed 2-week forecasts, regional breakdowns, and fill-up timing strategies.

👉 Upgrade to Fuel Planner Pro — stop overpaying at the pump.

Sheryl Mendoza

@sherylmendoza·Sep 25

⛽ Weekly Fuel Forecast: Sept 25–Oct 2 — National Average Hits $4.48, Highest Ever for Late September

The autumn dip still has not shown up.

The national average climbed nearly 5 cents this week to $4.48 as of September 24, the highest late-September price on record. AAA says September is on track to smash the old monthly record ($3.83 in 2023) with a month-to-date average of $4.30. Diesel is even worse: it hit a new US record of $6.53/gal.

A year ago, regular was $3.16. That's +$1.32 per gallon.

📊 This Week's Numbers

National average: $4.48/gal (up ~5¢ week-over-week, +$1.32 year-over-year, +38¢ month-over-month)
Cheapest states: Texas ($3.95), Indiana ($3.96), Mississippi ($3.99), Louisiana ($4.03)
Most expensive: California ($6.23), Hawaii ($5.57), Washington ($5.54), Nevada ($5.36)
Crude oil: WTI ~$93/bbl, Brent ~$106/bbl (widest spread since May)
Diesel: $6.51–$6.53/gal, a US record

🔥 3 Things Driving Prices Right Now

Hormuz talks are real, but so are new attacks. US and Iranian negotiators in New York are discussing a phased deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if Washington lifts its blockade. Markets dipped on the headlines. The same week, Houthis fired missiles at Saudi targets including Yanbu, the kingdom's main Red Sea export hub. Diplomacy and drones are fighting each other for control of the price.

Gasoline supply is tightening while demand is still rising. EIA: demand ticked up to 8.84 million barrels/day (unseasonal for late September). Stocks fell from 207.7 million to 206 million barrels. Production slipped. That's the opposite of a typical autumn.

Diesel is now an inflation problem. Record diesel feeds into trucking, freight, farms, and store prices. Trump floated a possible US diesel export ban to cool domestic costs, which is one reason WTI is lagging Brent by about $13.

🌍 Find the Cheapest Gas Anywhere in the World

Our Smart Gas Finder works worldwide, not just the US. Type in Manila, London, São Paulo, Tokyo, or any city on Earth and instantly find the cheapest and nearest stations.

Pro members get full access to the Smart Gas Finder, detailed 2-week forecasts, regional breakdowns, and fill-up timing strategies.

👉 Upgrade to Fuel Planner Pro — stop overpaying at the pump.

Sheryl Mendoza

@sherylmendoza·Sep 18

⛽ Weekly Fuel Forecast: Sept 18–25 — National Average Jumps 16¢ to $4.44, Highest Ever for Mid-September

Fall is supposed to bring cheaper gas. Not this year.

The national average jumped 16 cents in a single week to $4.44 as of September 17 — more than $1.24 higher than a year ago and the highest mid-September price on record. AAA says pump prices are inching toward this year's peak of $4.56 (set May 21), while diesel just hit an all-time high of $6.31/gal.

Analyst Andy Lipow put it plainly: US gasoline prices are the highest ever recorded for this point in the calendar year.

📊 This Week's Numbers

National average: $4.44/gal (up 16¢ week-over-week, +$1.24 year-over-year)
Cheapest states: Indiana ($3.92), Texas ($3.93), Mississippi ($3.93), Louisiana ($3.97)
Most expensive: California ($6.08), Washington ($5.57), Hawaii ($5.48), Nevada ($5.19)
Crude oil: WTI at $102.43/bbl, Brent near $106/bbl
Diesel: $6.31/gal — a new US record

🔥 3 Things Driving Prices Right Now

Hormuz is still choked, and now the Red Sea is too. Iran continues to restrict tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This week, Iran-backed Houthis seized Perim Island at the Bab el-Mandeb strait and attacked Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline — the kingdom's main Hormuz bypass. Both of the world's critical oil chokepoints are under pressure at the same time.

Prices are rising in a season when they should be falling. Gasoline demand typically drops after Labor Day. This year it rose — from 8.55 million to 8.79 million barrels/day. Crude is stuck around $100/barrel, so the usual autumn dip never arrived.

OPEC+ can't (or won't) add supply. OPEC+ held October output unchanged. Even after restoring earlier production cuts on paper, actual barrels aren't reaching the market because of the war. Next meeting: October 4.

🌍 Find the Cheapest Gas Anywhere in the World

Our Smart Gas Finder works worldwide — not just the US. Type in Manila, London, São Paulo, Tokyo, or any city on Earth and instantly find the cheapest and nearest stations.

Pro members get full access to the Smart Gas Finder, detailed 2-week forecasts, regional breakdowns, and fill-up timing strategies.

👉 Upgrade to Fuel Planner Pro — stop overpaying at the pump.

Sheryl Mendoza

@sherylmendoza·May 22

⛽ Weekly Fuel Forecast: May 22–29 — Memorial Day Gas Hits $4.56, Highest in 4 Years & Over $4 in All 50 States

It's official: every single US state is now above $4/gallon heading into Memorial Day weekend. The national average hit $4.56 as of May 21 — the highest Memorial Day price since 2022 and $1.38 more than last year.

AAA's headline says it all: "Memorial Day Weekend Gas Prices Reach Four-Year Highs."

A record 39.1 million Americans are expected to hit the road this weekend despite these prices. Here's what's behind the surge.

📊 This Week's Numbers

National average: $4.56/gal (up 3¢ week-over-week, +$1.38 year-over-year)
Cheapest states: Mississippi ($4.01), Georgia ($4.03), Indiana ($4.04), Louisiana ($4.05)
Most expensive: California ($6.14), Washington ($5.78), Hawaii ($5.64), Oregon ($5.35)
Crude oil: WTI at ~$98/bbl, Brent at ~$105/bbl

🔥 3 Things Driving Prices Right Now

Iran is literally charging tolls on the Strait of Hormuz. Iran launched the "Persian Gulf Strait Authority" on May 18, imposing a permit-and-toll regime on ships passing through the strait. Over 11 million barrels/day of Gulf crude remain curtailed. Wood Mackenzie warns oil could hit $200/barrel if disruptions extend through year-end.

Memorial Day demand is slamming into shrinking supply. Gasoline inventories fell to 214.2 million barrels — well below the 5-year average. Meanwhile 39.1 million drivers are hitting the road this weekend. The IEA warns oil markets could enter a "red zone" by July.

Peace talks are stalling. The US and Iran have signaled progress, but they're deadlocked over Iran's uranium stockpile and who controls Hormuz. Don't count on a quick deal to bring relief.

🌍 Find the Cheapest Gas Anywhere in the World

Our Smart Gas Finder works worldwide — whether you're filling up in Manila, Tokyo, London, São Paulo, or anywhere across the US. Just type in your location and instantly find the cheapest and nearest gas stations.

Pro members get full access to the Smart Gas Finder, detailed 2-week price forecasts with regional breakdowns, and fill-up timing strategies.

👉 Upgrade to Fuel Planner Pro — stop overpaying at the pump.

Sheryl Mendoza

@sherylmendoza·May 15

⛽ Weekly Fuel Forecast: May 15–22 — National Average Dips to $4.53 But Don't Celebrate Yet

Gas prices dipped slightly this week — the national average fell to $4.528 as of May 15, down about 3 cents from last week's $4.56. But AAA says the relief is already fading: "Little Relief for Drivers as National Average Dips then Rises Again."

Here's why you shouldn't relax just yet:

📊 This Week's Numbers

National average: $4.53/gal (down ~$0.03 week-over-week)
Cheapest states: Mississippi ($4.00), Louisiana ($4.01), Texas ($4.01), Oklahoma ($4.02)
Most expensive: California ($6.15), Washington ($5.77), Hawaii ($5.65)

🔥 3 Things Driving Prices Right Now

The Strait of Hormuz crisis isn't over. The EIA's May Short-Term Energy Outlook revealed disruptions are far worse than initially estimated — 10.5 million barrels/day shut in during April (up from the 9.1M estimate). The strait is assumed closed through late May. If it stays shut through June, oil prices could spike $20/barrel higher.

Memorial Day is about to hit. A record 45 million Americans are expected to travel, with 39.1 million hitting the road. That surge in demand could push prices back up fast.

UAE left OPEC. As of May 1, the UAE is no longer bound by OPEC production quotas. This could mean more supply eventually — but the short-term impact is uncertain.

🌍 Find the Cheapest Gas Anywhere in the World

Our Smart Gas Finder works worldwide — whether you're filling up in Manila, London, São Paulo, or right here in the US. Just type in your location and get real-time prices for the cheapest and nearest stations.

Pro members get full access to the Smart Gas Finder, detailed 2-week price forecasts, regional breakdowns, and fill-up timing strategies.

👉 Upgrade to Fuel Planner Pro to stop overpaying at the pump.

Sheryl Mendoza

@sherylmendoza·May 8

⛽ Weekly Fuel Forecast: May 8–15 — Prices Hit $4.56, Highest Since 2022

The national average just hit $4.56 per gallon — up $0.26 in just one week and marking the second straight week of 25-cent jumps. We haven't seen prices this high since the summer of 2022, when gas peaked at $5.01.

Here's what's driving the surge:

🛢️ Strait of Hormuz Crisis Continues

The US-Iran blockade has now persisted for over two months, keeping roughly 20% of the world's oil supply bottlenecked. While crude oil dipped below $100/barrel this week (WTI settled at $95.08), gasoline prices haven't followed — supply chain disruptions take weeks to unwind.

📉 Supply Is Shrinking

The EIA reports domestic gasoline supply dropped from 222.3 million to 219.8 million barrels last week. Production also fell, averaging just 9.6 million barrels/day. Less fuel on hand = higher prices at the pump.

💰 The Damage by State

Most expensive: California ($6.16), Washington ($5.76), Hawaii ($5.66)
Cheapest: Oklahoma ($3.98), Mississippi ($4.00), Louisiana ($4.02)
Year-over-year: You're paying $1.40 more per gallon than last May

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The average driver fills up ~60 gallons/month. At today's prices, that's $84 more per month than last year — over $1,000/year in extra fuel costs.

Want to know exactly when to fill up, which days are cheapest, and where prices are headed the next two weeks?

🌍 Not Just the US — Our App Works Worldwide

Pro members get access to the Smart Gas Finder, which finds the cheapest and nearest gas stations anywhere in the world. Whether you're driving in Europe, Asia, South America, or anywhere else — just type in any location and instantly compare fuel prices near you. Rising fuel costs aren't just a US problem, and neither is our tool.

👉 Upgrade to Fuel Planner Pro — get the full regional forecast, worldwide gas price search, optimal fill-up timing strategy, and price alerts that save you real money every week.

Sheryl Mendoza

@sherylmendoza·May 8

⛽ Weekly Fuel Forecast: May 8–14 — Prices Spike to $4.55, Here's What to Do

National Average Hits $4.55 — Up $0.50 in Two Weeks

The AAA national average hit $4.558 as of May 7 — that's a 25-cent jump for the second straight week. Prices are now $1.40 higher than this time last year.

What's Driving the Spike?

Geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran developments sent crude oil prices soaring. Despite earlier forecasts calling for sub-$3 averages this year (GasBuddy projected $2.97), reality has diverged sharply.

Cheapest States Right Now

Mississippi, Oklahoma, Texas — still under $3.50
Gulf Coast states remain your best bet

Most Expensive

California — pushing past $5.25+
Washington, Hawaii, Nevada — all above $4.20

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🔮 What Happens Next Week?

Our Pro members get the full 2-week price trend forecast, station-by-station price alerts, and optimal fill-up timing recommendations.

This week's Pro forecast correctly anticipated the spike before it hit.

👉 Upgrade to Fuel Planner Pro for $9.99/mo and stop overpaying at the pump.

Sheryl Mendoza

@sherylmendoza·May 8

The $500/year mistake most drivers make at the pump

Most people fill up when the tank hits empty. That's the worst strategy.

Here's what the data actually shows:

Gas prices follow weekly cycles. In most US cities, prices are lowest on Mondays and Tuesdays, and peak on Thursdays and Fridays before the weekend. That pattern alone can save you 10-15 cents per gallon.

Stations within 2 miles of each other can differ by 30+ cents. The station on your commute isn't always the cheapest — it's just the most convenient. A 2-minute detour can save you $4-6 per fill-up.

Prices trend predictably. Crude oil futures, refinery output, and seasonal demand create patterns that repeat. If you know a price spike is coming in 3 days, you fill up now. If prices are dropping, you wait.

The average American spends $2,800/year on gas. Most of that is overspending by $400-600 just from bad timing and not comparing prices.

I built Strategic Fuel Planner to fix this. The free tier finds you the cheapest stations nearby. The Pro tier ($9.99/mo) adds AI price predictions so you know exactly when to fill up.

The math is simple: if it saves you $40+/month, it pays for itself 4x over.