Monte-Carlo Simulation by Aethel lets you stress-test any trading strategy before and during live trading — in your browser, in seconds.
Upload your trades CSV, set your parameters, and run up to 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations to see every possible future your strategy could produce.
📊 What the simulator shows you:
Equity curves across P5 / Median / P95 scenarios
Van Tharp SQN score distribution
Max drawdown: median, best and worst case
Consecutive loss streak analysis
Return distribution histogram
Profit Factor, Kelly Criterion, Expected Value
Ruin probability (% of simulations ending negative)
Recovery factor📚 Every metric includes a built-in explanation icon — hover to instantly understand what each number means and how to read it.
⚡ Stress Testing Engine: Simulate real trading conditions — bad slippage, missed winners, human error, fatigue decay. See if your edge survives when things go wrong.
🔴 Bonus Feature - Live Trading Checker: Already trading live? Load your real trades and instantly compare your actual results against simulation benchmarks. See whether you're tracking the median scenario, outperforming, or falling behind — after just 20-30 live trades.
Simulations: Run from 500 to 10,000 scenarios. More simulations = more accurate probability distribution.
Who it's for: Forex, futures and crypto traders who want statistical proof their strategy works — not just a backtest.