Monte-Carlo Simulation by Aethel lets you stress-test any trading strategy before and during live trading β in your browser, in seconds.
Upload your trades CSV, set your parameters, and run up to 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations to see every possible future your strategy could produce.
π What the simulator shows you:
Equity curves across P5 / Median / P95 scenarios
Van Tharp SQN score distribution
Max drawdown: median, best and worst case
Consecutive loss streak analysis
Return distribution histogram
Profit Factor, Kelly Criterion, Expected Value
Ruin probability (% of simulations ending negative)
Recovery factorπ Every metric includes a built-in explanation icon β hover to instantly understand what each number means and how to read it.
β‘ Stress Testing Engine: Simulate real trading conditions β bad slippage, missed winners, human error, fatigue decay. See if your edge survives when things go wrong.
π΄ Bonus Feature - Live Trading Checker: Already trading live? Load your real trades and instantly compare your actual results against simulation benchmarks. See whether you're tracking the median scenario, outperforming, or falling behind β after just 20-30 live trades.
Simulations: Run from 500 to 10,000 scenarios. More simulations = more accurate probability distribution.
Who it's for: Forex, futures and crypto traders who want statistical proof their strategy works β not just a backtest.