In 2017 we backtested a simple S&P 500 EMA crossover strategy over

nine years and 4,918 trades. On paper it returned +13,430% — €1,000

into €2.69M, straight to the top-right corner.

Then we added six pips of cost per round trip. The spread a broker

actually charges. Nothing exotic.

Same code. Same data. Same rules. The result: −99.90%. The account

was zeroed.

This 10-page report is the full autopsy — both equity curves, the

side-by-side numbers, the year-by-year breakdown, and the single

metric that explains the entire €2.71M gap between fantasy and

reality. No theory. Just the data, and what it means for any

backtest you'll ever read.

This is the first report in a series. We publish every result —

the strategies that work, the ones that don't, and the ones that

looked perfect until costs were modeled honestly.

WHAT'S INSIDE

— The +13,430% backtest and the chart that nearly went live

— The six-pip reveal: −99.90%, step by step

— Side-by-side metrics: profit factor, win rate, avg PnL per trade

— Year-by-year: why "good in aggregate" hid a strategy that failed

— Three checks you can apply to any backtest before you trust it

WHO IT'S FOR

Anyone who reads backtest results — and wants to know whether the

number on screen means anything before risking capital on it.

Enter your email to unlock the report. You'll also get a short

follow-up series unpacking the lessons in more depth. No spam,

unsubscribe anytime.