What is the Alpha Model?

It’s Effie’s super secret betting strategy!

It’s a Positive Expectation Value (+EV) model, which detects miscalculations in bookmaker odds. In the world of sports betting, +EV models are your golden ticket to consistent profitability.

The basic concept (without giving the model away) is that Effie uses Pinnacle’s odds as a benchmark in her statistical analysis to identify undervalued or mispriced bets in the market.

Why Pinnacle?

We use Pinnacle as our reference because they are known to offer the sharpest odds globally. This stems from their unbeatable low-margin model and lack of limiting, which attracts the best professional bettors worldwide. As a result, Pinnacle get the best and most diverse pool of data for odds calculation. Consequently, their odds are very close to the fair odds of an event (so much so that they will often predict the outcomes of events properly!).

Effie, a true scholar, knows to calculate the fair odds from pinnacle odds, using an empirically derived formula. These are then used in her data analysis to spot mispricings in other bookmakers!

With a couple more statistical conditions and checks, this creates the +EV alpha model. Over a large number of trials, probability dictates that the average return will be positive (hence +EV) i.e. you make money!

Pros:

✅ High Profit Margins

✅ Proprietary Model - likely less saturated market

✅ Easy to use (only one outcome to bet on for each opportunity)

Cons:

❌ More risk than with arbitrage betting - if you don’t bet consistently you could run into periods of loss despite them eventually turning into gains as dictated by probability in the long run.