Millennials Capital

5.0 (8 Reviews)
Investor since 2019. Sharing my real portfolio, market updates and investment journey.
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Giannis LappasProfile picture@glappas10·Aug 28

Warsh just sent a pretty clear message to the markets:

Don’t expect interest rate cuts anytime soon.

The Fed Chair said that if he doesn’t see clear and sufficiently fast progress in bringing inflation back toward the 2% target, then the Fed still “has work to do.”

In simple terms?

He is leaving the door open even to another interest rate hike from the current 3.50%-3.75% range.

He also made it clear that he does not believe current interest rates are putting significant pressure on the U.S. economy.

So, at this point, he does not see a strong reason to rush into cutting rates.

The message to the market is essentially this:

Inflation needs to come down. Otherwise, rates could stay higher for longer — or even move higher.

In the short term, this is not particularly positive for stocks, especially growth and tech companies, as higher interest rates tend to put pressure on their valuations.

From here, the next inflation reports become even more important.

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Giannis LappasProfile picture@glappas10·Aug 26

Today is one of the most important days of the month for the markets.

We have two major events:

1️⃣ U.S. PCE inflation data

This will give us a clearer picture of where inflation is heading and what it could mean for the Fed and interest rates.

2️⃣ Nvidia earnings after the market close

I’ll mainly be watching:

Data Center growth → Blackwell/Rubin demand → hyperscaler spending → guidance → 2027 outlook.

The positive part is that we’re entering today with a relatively better backdrop, as oil prices have moved lower and bond yields have eased.

Today, I care less about what the market does in the first few hours.

What matters more is what the data tells us.

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Giannis LappasProfile picture@glappas10·Aug 26

Are you ready for Nvidia today?


Probably the most important earnings report of this Quarter for the markets once again.

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Giannis LappasProfile picture@glappas10·Aug 12

Nebius didn’t suddenly appear on my radar because it reported strong results today.

I’ve been following the company for months as part of a much bigger investment thesis:

the AI infrastructure buildout.

When people think about AI, most immediately think of ChatGPT, applications and software.

I prefer to look at the entire value chain.

Chips.
Data centers.
Cloud infrastructure.
Energy.
Networking.

This is essentially the “AI Cake” framework I use as a guide to understand where the massive amounts of capital surrounding artificial intelligence are actually flowing.

And Nebius ($NBIS) sits right in the middle of that story.

In today’s results, the company reported:

• $582.3 million in revenue, +454% YoY
• $236.2 million in Adjusted EBITDA
• 4 major AI Cloud deals, with an average value of more than $1 billion each
• a 5 GW contracted power target
• more than $9 billion in customer prepayments for 2026

But for me, the most important part isn’t one strong quarter.

It’s that an investment thesis we’ve been following for quite some time is beginning to be validated by actual results.

At Millennials Capital, we don’t simply look at which stock went up today.

We try to understand:

where capital is flowing,
which industries are benefiting,
which companies are seeing real demand,
and which data points can either confirm or invalidate our original thesis.

NBIS is a great example of that process.

Not because we “picked a winning stock.”

But because the real work happens long before the result shows up on the chart.

Returns are the outcome.
The process is what I’m trying to build every single day.

This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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Giannis LappasProfile picture@glappas10·Aug 12

In other news, July inflation data came in exactly in line with expectations, with no negative surprises.

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Giannis LappasProfile picture@glappas10·Aug 12

We are witnessing one of the biggest investment bets in history.

And that bet is AI.

Hyperscalers have committed roughly $2.6 trillion in future spending on data centers, power infrastructure, equipment, and services.

The most striking part?

A large portion of these obligations relates to agreements that have not even started yet and are disclosed mainly in the footnotes of financial statements.

Google stands out with around $896 billion in total commitments.

Oracle, on the other hand, has approximately $292 billion.

And this is, in my opinion, where the really important part begins.

The world’s largest technology companies are not simply spending a few billion dollars to experiment with AI.

They are committing capital and infrastructure for years.

Data centers.
Energy.
Chips.
Networking.
Cloud infrastructure.

The AI buildout is becoming one of the largest long-term investment cycles we have ever seen.

And as this infrastructure continues to expand, one question becomes increasingly important for investors:

Which companies will ultimately manage to turn these trillions of dollars in investment into real profits?

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Giannis LappasProfile picture@glappas10·Aug 12

NBIS up nearly 10% and breaking above $210 ahead of earnings

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Giannis LappasProfile picture@glappas10·Aug 11

Meta unveiled a new AI model, while Mark Zuckerberg called for fewer restrictions on open-source and open-weight models in the U.S., arguing that this would help American companies compete more effectively with China.

The most important takeaway is not the model itself, but the broader trend: competition between Meta, Google, OpenAI, and Chinese AI companies continues to intensify.

This means even more investment in computing power—and therefore greater demand for AI infrastructure.

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Giannis LappasProfile picture@glappas10·Aug 11

Tomorrow brings the most important economic data release of the week: July’s U.S. inflation report.

Economists expect approximately:

  • CPI: 3.4% year-over-year

  • Core CPI: 2.5% year-over-year

The announcement has become even more important following last week’s weak employment data. At the moment, the market sees roughly a 50/50 chance of an interest rate hike in September.

  • Lower CPI → relief for the markets.

  • Higher CPI → increased odds of another rate hike and potentially greater volatility.

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Giannis LappasProfile picture@glappas10·Aug 10

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) announced that its July sales increased by approximately 45% year over year, reaching $14.5 billion. The main driver was the enormous demand for chips used in AI.

TSMC is arguably the most important chip manufacturer in the world. Companies such as Nvidia and Apple design their own chips, but rely heavily on TSMC to manufacture them.

During the first seven months of 2026, the company generated approximately $89.1 billion in revenue, representing a 37% increase compared with the same period last year.

Most importantly, the company does not appear to expect a slowdown. Instead, it raised its 2026 investment plan to a record $60–64 billion. In other words, TSMC is investing enormous amounts in new factories, equipment and production capacity because it expects demand to remain strong.

For the full year of 2026, the company expects sales growth of slightly more than 40%, while the market currently estimates growth of approximately 47% for the current quarter.

Another interesting point is that TSMC’s shares in Taiwan have risen approximately 50% since the beginning of the year, compared with around 20% for Nvidia.

The key takeaway is that, so far, there are no signs that the AI infrastructure boom is coming to an end. On the contrary, the company that essentially “makes the picks and shovels” for a large part of the industry continues to see tremendous growth in orders.