@maxmaserati·3d582 NQ 4-hour BuBC+ candles (Jun 2024 to Oct 2026): the next candle took the high (TGT) 80% of the time, back to the 50% first 18%. That is why the 06:00 to 10:00 New York candle is the lean you carry into the open.
Candle odds: maxmaserati.com/indicators/
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@maxmaserati·3dEvery candle is demand looking for an offer.
A bearish body close below the previous low is sell demand. It expands to find buy offers.
Buy offers fill part of the demand but do not take control. Sell demand ends on a bullish body close above the last bearish body close high.
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@maxmaserati·3dThe MMM news-day rule, shown with a November 5 teaching example: no new trade from 5 minutes before a release to 15 minutes after. A news gap is one big order, not real buying.
Free News Calendar: maxmaserati.com/news
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@maxmaserati·3dOn 376 NQ days where the 4-hour 06:00 to 10:00 lean was right (Dec 2022 to Dec 2025), the median dip against it was still 34 pts, and 61.4% of the time the worst point came before 10:30 New York. The dip is a test, not a turn.
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@maxmaserati·3dWhen a day closes strong, what happens tomorrow?
1,238 NQ daily BuBC+ candles (Sep 2000 to Oct 2026, front month): the next day took the high (TGT) 86% of the time, and came back to the 50% first only 19%. A + candle closes near its high, so part of that is distance. Odds, not signals.
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@maxmaserati·3dAcross 763 NQ New York mornings (Dec 2022 to Dec 2025), the median run was 2 same-side BCs. From a 5-minute BC it reached 20 pts 67.9% of the time, 30 pts 55.7%, 50 pts 37.6%.
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@maxmaserati·3dOver 763 NQ days (2022 to 2025), the 09:30 to 11:30 high or low was already in by 10:00 on 83.1% of days.
So after 10:00, one end of the morning is usually already on your chart.
Free 9:30 study: maxmaserati.com/backtests/ny-open/study/
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@maxmaserati·3dRule tested: first 5-minute BC after 10:00 New York, 50 pt stop, 100 pt target, out 11:30, 1 pt cost.
763 NQ days: 46% win rate at 1:2, average +0.06 R, statistically noise.
A BC shows who is urgent now. It is not an entry on its own.
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@maxmaserati·3dTwo candles closed above the last high. One closed in the top quarter of its range (BC+). One closed lower (BC-).
Over 10,110 NQ 15-minute BuBC+ candles, the next candle took the high 80% of the time. After a BuBC-, only 49%.
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@maxmaserati·3dA run averages about 2.4 to 2.6 BCs in every NQ session. What changes is the size: median Asia run 6.5 pts, London 10 pts, New York morning 26.6 pts (Dec 2022 to Dec 2025).
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