Neil Mac's Soccer Bets

Norway vs England

Both teams to score: Yes and Over 2.5 Total Goals at 1.94 with Pinnacle / Bet105 - 2 units

• Ok let’s start with Norway, because Norway’s gameplan here is chaos, they create it, they benefit from it, and it’s why I want to be with goals tonight. Pinnacle pricing this combo at 1.94 tells you they already lean towards an open game, I just don’t think they’ve leaned far enough.

• Norway have scored 2.4 goals per game on 2.23 xG at this World Cup, and a heavily rotated side still generated 1.8 xG against a full-strength France. Only Argentina and France have scored more non-penalty goals at this tournament, this attack is operating at the level of the very best attacking teams in the competition.

• Their games have averaged 4.2 goals on 4.14 combined xG, so it’s not an accident that Norway matches see goals. Both ends are bang in line with the chances created, there’s no heater here waiting to cool off.

• We know how dangerous they can be with Haaland, who since the Brazil game has equaled R9 and Zlatan’s international goalscoring record, quite the feat at 25. He’s scored in four consecutive games at this tournament and his shot quality is absurd, twelve of eighteen on target.

• So we know Norway can score here, but this team also gives up chances to absolutely everyone: 2.27 xG to Brazil, 2.34 to Senegal, 1.77 to Iraq, 1.56 to Ivory Coast, and 1.6xG against France.

• Nobody has played Norway at this World Cup without creating at least a goal and a half of chances, England will get theirs.

• England’s defensive record doesn’t survive an audit. Two clean sheets all tournament, a Ghana side who offered nothing and a limited Panama who still worked up 1.17 xG, and the underlying numbers are nowhere near the other front runners, Spain concede 0.30 xG per match, Argentina 0.60, France 0.64, England 0.84.

• They also give up 10.4 shots a game, the most in the contender bracket, protection that has come from the quality of chances conceded rather than the quantity, and Haaland is exactly the striker who fixes chance quality for an attack.

• England’s backline is being held together with tape. Quansah is suspended, Tuchel’s “full choice” includes a Guehi who only returned to training on Friday after a hamstring problem, and the predicted XI has Stones and Konsa as the pairing with Spence and O’Reilly either side. Whichever combination walks out, it’s an unsettled defence getting Haaland’s channel runs as their welcome to a World Cup quarter-final.

• The case against this bet is England’s cross defence, they dealt with 38 Mexican crosses with 10 men at altitude, and Norway are nominally a cross-heavy side. But Norway’s goals haven’t come from crossing volume, they come from Haaland attacking the channels and Odegaard slipping runners in behind, which is a different question entirely for a rebuilt backline.

• The conditions lean our way as well. England went from altitude against Mexico to a 5pm kickoff in Miami, 33 degrees, heavy humidity and thunderstorms forecast, their second brutal climate adjustment inside a fortnight. Rice covers more ground than anyone in this England side and he's spent the week ill, so the midfield is set up to fade exactly when Norway's chaos does its best work.

• The market already leans towards goals here, I just think Norway’s end is still underpriced against this reshuffled defence. The only real out is a cagey 0-0, and nothing about either side suggests one.

Argentina vs Switzerland

Argentina -0.75 Asian Handicap at 1.92 with Pinnacle - Bet105 - 2 units

• Ok let’s deal with the elephant first, everyone has watched Cape Verde and Egypt put two past Argentina and decided this backline is gettable. Those two games produced four goals from 1.28 xG combined, opponents finishing at three times their chance quality against the second best defensive process at the tournament behind Spain.

• The attack needs no defending at all, 14 goals in five games, 2.8 per game from 13.5 xG, with 3.48 on Cape Verde, 3.21 on Egypt and 3.11 on Austria, all against packed defences. Both the creation and the finishing are elite. The jeopardy in those scorelines came entirely from the other end, and we’ve just covered why that ends.

• Switzerland’s numbers are flat-track numbers. 3.9 xG on Qatar, 2.6 on Algeria, 2.19 on Bosnia, then 1.02 against Canada and 0.58 across 120 minutes against Colombia, out created in both. The Switzerland that shows up against real opposition barely attacks at all.

• Their defensive headline is flattened by the same schedule. 0.87 xGA per game reads well until you see Canada got 1.60 and Colombia 1.47, the only proper attacks they faced both reached a goal and a half of chances. Argentina are a class above both

• Switzerland were taken all the way in their last game, 120 minutes and a shootout against Colombia, and they don’t have the depth the elite sides carry to absorb that. It gets worse, Manzambi, one of their best players at this World Cup, is out, and Aebischer and Jaquez are both doubts. A thin squad on heavy legs just got thinner.

• We’ve already watched this movie twice this week. Morocco looked dead on their feet against France in their quarter-final, and Belgium faded badly late on against Spain yesterday, both squads without the depth to freshen things when it mattered. Switzerland fit the same profile exactly, and Argentina’s bench is built to punish it.

• And Argentina are exactly the wrong opponent to be tired against, because this is when they do their damage. Across this World Cup they’re scoring 1.4 goals per second half on 1.49 xG while conceding just 0.32. Their second goal against Austria arrived in injury time, and the entire Egypt comeback landed in the 79th, 83rd and stoppage time. Their goals cluster as opponents fade, and their bench is built to make sure the fading happens.

• Uncomfortable to write, but the officiating has been part of Argentina’s tournament. Messi planted his studs into Aissa Mandi’s calf at 1-0 against Algeria, escaped without even a yellow while VAR stayed silent, and stayed on to score a hat-trick. Then Egypt had a goal chalked off for a foul the length of the pitch back and a penalty appeal waved away minutes before the stoppage-time winner, you don’t need a conspiracy to notice the marginal calls keep landing on one side.

Spain vs Cape Verde

Spain 2.75 Asian Handicap at 1.92 with Pinnacle - 2 units

• Cape Verde have never been tested at this level: they have played some high-level African opposition since 2022 but nothing will compare to this

• In friendlies since qualification the best teams they faced were Egypt and Chile, neither close to Spain, and they conceded 5 goals and around 4 xGA in those games

• In qualification their toughest opponent was Cameroon, who beat them 4-1 in the first meeting and lost the 2nd meeting 1-0

• Looking at their squad you will see one player who makes up about 1/3 of their squad value: that player is Logan Costa (CB) who plays for Villarreal, but we should note he played just 35 mins across all competitions for Villarreal this season as he is coming off a cruciate ligament tear, and he hasn’t played a minute for the national team in about 16 months

• A useful strength comparison for Spain would be Georgia or Bulgaria, who sit around the same level as Cape Verde: in qualification Spain put up huge numbers against both, averaging an xG line of 3.32-0.27, so there’s a strong chance we see similar numbers

• Spain will likely line up here without Yamal but that wouldn’t put me off, and he will probably make a cameo in this game anyway

• Spain will want to do all they can to secure top spot in this group, as 2nd place will likely mean a R32 meeting with one of the favourites in Argentina, so goal difference could be a factor and they will want to run up the score

• Expect a dominant performance with Cape Verde pinned into their own half for the majority

Belgium vs Egypt

Belgium Over 1.5 Team Total Goals at 1.76 with Bet105- 2 units

• Egypt were not tested in qualification, so despite the 0.2 goals against I don’t think they will be able to hang with Belgium here: we should also note they overperformed by a big stretch in qualification

• Over their last 12 months of friendlies they took on two top-level sides in Brazil and Spain: Spain drew 0-0 with them while fielding a fairly weak XI yet still put up 2.37 xG and 20 shots, and Brazil beat them 2-1 recently

• In qualification Belgium played an almost identical Elo-strength side in Wales: Belgium put 8 goals past Wales across their two meetings with 6.3 xG

• I believe Belgium will benefit from less pressure at this World Cup: I can’t say for sure, but the “Golden Generation” talk has died down and with less weight on them I expect a better showing this time round

• Belgium have been really impressive under Rudi Garcia: since losing his first game in charge they are undefeated and have scored 3.46 goals per game across 13 matches

• Granted some of those were drubbings of Liechtenstein, but they also put 5 past the USA, 2 past Croatia, 3 past Ukraine, 5 past Tunisia and the 8 against Wales mentioned above

• They will line up here with CDK in attack, which is the right call: Lukaku is not only in decline, he has barely played this season

• In support they will have Doku, De Bruyne and Trossard, plus a very strong midfield in Onana and Tielemans

• I honestly cannot see a situation where Egypt contain this Belgium side, especially with confidence this high right now

Haiti vs Scotland

Scotland to win + Switzerland to win 1st half at 2.45 with Bet105 - 2 units

• Please look at the previous post or my Twitter for the reasoning behind the Swiss. With potential heat in San Francisco, expect them to be a lot sharper early and to want to wrap this game up as soon as possible

• There has been a lot of commotion about Haiti leading up to this tournament. Many will point to their 4-0 demolition of New Zealand as evidence that this team can hang with the best, and to be honest that is pretty naive

• That was a warm-up friendly and New Zealand decided to engage them in an end-to-end game and got ripped apart. Scotland won’t be so naive. They won’t engage in a gung-ho, balls-to-the-wall approach, they will be measured and they will get this over the line

• Haiti are really poor in build-up and will likely turn the ball over quite a bit, which will give Scotland plenty of looks

• Haiti also play a pretty high line, which could end up being suicidal for them here

• In the warm-ups we also saw Scotland take on two similar-strength sides in Curacao, who they beat 4-1 (but a red card skews the result), and Bolivia, who they also beat 4-0

• Curacao had one decent attempt in the game, which they converted, and it came before the red card. We should also note that Curacao beat Haiti 5-1 in qualification, and while Haiti have recruited some players since then, the level of play during that game was truly shocking

• I have watched all the Haiti qualification highlights I can find and they look pretty susceptible to set-pieces, and their GK (38-year-old playing in the French 3rd division) seems like a real weak link

• I don’t think Scotland need to do anything special here. A conservative game plan should still see them create ample opportunities to win this match

Double: Jordan and Qatar not to qualify at 1.95 - 2 units with Bet365

Qatar

• Qatar had a nightmare World Cup when they hosted in 2022. Over a decade of preparation and squad-building, and they got humiliated by all three teams they faced in the group stage. By far the worst host nation in the history of the competition.

• People often say “but they won the Asian Cup twice”. Yes, and they overperformed in both tournaments with a lot going their way. It’s also the Asian Cup, a different planet from World Cup competition.

• In round three of AFC qualifying they were underwhelming. Across 10 matches they won just four games, posted a goal difference of minus seven, and finished fourth, scraping into the playoff.

• In the fourth round playoff they had home advantage in Doha and squeezed past UAE and Oman. Hardly a convincing route through.

• They are now under the management of Julen Lopetegui. Not the profile you want for an Asian minnow at a World Cup. He is not the manager to grind out results with a side that cannot compete physically or technically with European or South American opposition.

• From the 10 matches he has taken charge of, Qatar have won just two. A 1-0 over Iran and a 2-1 over UAE. The Iran result flatters the record. Iran had already qualified, rested their European-based starters, and had a man sent off in the first half.

• Qatar face hosts Canada, a Switzerland side that are genuine dark horses and favourites to top the group, and a battle-hardened Bosnia and Herzegovina who will look at the Qatar fixture as three easy points.

• Qatar are not going to show us anything new. Same old faces: Almoez Ali, Akram Afif, Hassan Al-Haydos. These players are decent at the Asian level but cannot compete outside Asia. We saw that at the 2019 Copa America and we saw it in their pre-tournament friendlies before the home World Cup.

• The 2023 Gold Cup was a similar story. Lost to Haiti in the group, then got dismantled 4-0 by Panama in the quarter-finals.

• Bosnia sit 30 places higher than Qatar in the Elo rankings with a squad value roughly six and a half times larger. The pedigree gap is real, and that should mean the Asian minnows finishing bottom of the group.

• NB: We don’t necessarily even need them to finish bottom, just not qualify which is very much on the cards in my opinion.

Jordan

• Jordan are a fun side and were very profitable for us at the Asian Cup, but they won’t go far here. Unlike Qatar they have a fiercely difficult group with Argentina, Austria, and Algeria.

• Both Algeria and Austria have a squad value roughly 16 times that of Jordan, and both come into this tournament off strong campaigns.

• Algeria went 8-1-1 in qualification, dominating everyone, and had a reasonably good AFCON, only being bested by an in-form Nigeria.

• Austria won their group ahead of Bosnia and Romania, and have looked decent in recent friendlies, beating Ghana and Korea.

• In terms of raw talent they might be (along with Qatar) the worst in the tournament. They have one baller, Musa Al-Taamari at Rennes. The rest play mostly domestically in Jordan and Iraq.

• Jordan overperformed their xG in both attack and defence to get here. The underlying numbers don’t back up the qualification narrative.

• In particular, they massively overperformed in front of goal. For context, Iran put up 34.51 xG in Asian qualifying, Japan 34.48. Jordan scored 32 goals off just 22.51 xG. Their total xG was comparable to Palestine's, the worst of any Asian nation that qualified.

• Since World Cup qualification, Jordan have played a string of friendlies that don’t look great. (I’ll ignore the Arab Cup as that’s a tournament more for local players and B teams.)

• They lost to Bolivia in Istanbul. Losing to Bolivia at sea level is a red flag. They also lost 4-2 to Albania, 3-2 to Tunisia, drew 2-2 with Costa Rica, and drew 2-2 with Nigeria.

• This really comes down to Algeria avoiding defeat against Jordan, because I think Argentina and Austria will get past Jordan with ease. Algeria’s first game is against Argentina, a match they’ll likely lose, so they’ll be eyeing the Jordan fixture as a must-win three-pointer.