Been tracking product trends for resellers and dropshippers for a while now, and the #1 mistake I see is people chasing a viral video instead of the underlying demand curve. A video can get 5M views and generate zero repeat searches. Here's what actually separates a real trend from a spike:

1. Search velocity, not search volume. A product with 2,000 monthly searches growing 40% week-over-week beats one with 50,000 searches that's flat. Volume tells you the market size. Velocity tells you if you're early or late.

2. Cross-platform confirmation. If something is only moving on TikTok, it's a content trend, not a product trend. I want to see it start showing up in Pinterest saves, Google Shopping impressions, and Amazon 'also bought' data within 2-3 weeks of the TikTok spike. That lag is your entry window.

3. Supplier lead time vs. hype decay. This is the one nobody talks about. If your supplier needs 3 weeks to fulfill and the trend historically decays in 5 weeks, you're selling into a dead market by the time inventory lands. Always check how fast similar past trends died before committing budget.

Most sellers find out a trend existed after it peaked. The gap between 'first mover' and 'bag holder' is usually about 10-14 days — and it's almost entirely about which signals you're watching, not luck.

I write these breakdowns weekly over at NextWave Trends if you want the specific niches I'm tracking right now.