Most NFL pick sellers only track win rate. That's a mistake — win rate alone doesn't tell you if your business is healthy.

Here are the 3 numbers that actually matter if you're running a subscription, not just a Twitter account:

1. ROI%, not just win rate. A 55% win rate on -110 plays is break-even-ish. A 52% win rate hitting mostly plus-money dogs can be way more profitable. Track ROI% (return vs. risk), not just wins/losses.

2. Trial-to-paid conversion. If you offer a free trial, this number tells you whether your first impression actually converts. Most sellers never measure it and just guess. Anything under 30% usually means your trial window doesn't line up with a live game, or your onboarding doesn't set expectations fast enough.

3. Weekly churn%. Cancellations / active members. If this creeps above 8%/month, it's almost never a "picks" problem — it's an onboarding or communication problem. People don't cancel after a loss, they cancel when they feel ignored.

Track these three weekly in a simple spreadsheet and you'll know within a month whether you're building a real business or just getting lucky some weeks.

Happy to answer questions on how to set this up if anyone's building their own.