$40+ billion traded on prediction markets in 2025.

Election outcomes. Fed decisions. Bitcoin prices. Sports. Culture. Everything is a market now.

Most traders lose money because they bet on opinions. Winners trade on edges.

This playbook shows you how to find them.

What You’ll Learn

🎯 The Fundamentals

• How prediction markets actually work
• Why prices = probabilities
• Platform comparison (Polymarket vs Kalshi vs others)
• Getting started step-by-step

📊 Reading Markets

• Price vs probability analysis
• Finding mispriced markets
• Volume and liquidity signals
• Time decay and resolution mechanics

💡 Trading Strategies

• Event arbitrage (same event, different prices)
• News trading (speed wins)
• Contrarian betting (fading the crowd)
• Base rate analysis (history as your edge)
• Correlation trading (connected markets)

🔬 Advanced Tactics

• Order book analysis
• Whale tracking on-chain
• API trading basics
• Building simple bots
• Multi-market portfolios

⚠️ Risk Management

• Position sizing for binary outcomes
• The Kelly Criterion for predictions
• Correlation and portfolio risk
• Resolution risk (markets can resolve wrong)

🤖 The AI Edge

• Using LLMs for probability estimation
• News sentiment analysis
• 24/7 monitoring advantage
• Building your edge with AI