$40+ billion traded on prediction markets in 2025.

Election outcomes. Fed decisions. Bitcoin prices. Sports. Culture. Everything is a market now.

Most traders lose money because they bet on opinions. Winners trade on edges.

This playbook shows you how to find them.

What You'll Learn

🎯 The Fundamentals

• How prediction markets actually work

• Why prices = probabilities

• Platform comparison (Polymarket vs Kalshi vs others)

• Getting started step-by-step

📊 Reading Markets

• Price vs probability analysis

• Finding mispriced markets

• Volume and liquidity signals

• Time decay and resolution mechanics

💡 Trading Strategies

• Event arbitrage (same event, different prices)

• News trading (speed wins)

• Contrarian betting (fading the crowd)

• Base rate analysis (history as your edge)

• Correlation trading (connected markets)

🔬 Advanced Tactics

• Order book analysis

• Whale tracking on-chain

• API trading basics

• Building simple bots

• Multi-market portfolios

⚠️ Risk Management

• Position sizing for binary outcomes

• The Kelly Criterion for predictions

• Correlation and portfolio risk

• Resolution risk (markets can resolve wrong)

🤖 The AI Edge

• Using LLMs for probability estimation

• News sentiment analysis

• 24/7 monitoring advantage

• Building your edge with AI