OrcaLayer

🐋 Someone is on the other side of your trade.

Take this one: $22,053,933 realized profit, 85.7% win rate, 11,920x profit factor, 343-day typical hold. Rank #2 on the leaderboard.

Every position, every entry, every market it ever touched — public on the Polygon chain. We just read it and put it on one page.

Right now across the platform: $47.8M tracked in 24h, 2,053,234 trades today, 780 active whales.

1.5B fills indexed · 1.8M wallets ranked · free, no signup, no wallet connection.

Open it here → whop.com/joined/orcalayer/orca-layer-NEi6bmu84YbsQt/app/

Eighty-five million dollars is the figure people now quote for one French trader's profit on the 2024 US election. The first count, drawn from four accounts, came to forty-eight million.

The trading did not change between those two numbers. The number of accounts being counted did.

After that trade, prediction-market leaderboards started getting read as shopping lists. Polymarket runs one, and it lets you rank by profit over a day, a week, a month, or all time.

The case for reading the daily version is real. A large one-day move usually means a large position, and size is where information shows up first, if it shows up at all.

Size and record are two different things, though. A wallet can top a single day's table on one lucky resolution with nothing behind it, and a wallet with years of patient work can miss that table entirely because it never has a big enough day.

So the record axis gets its own list. A wallet joins it with ten closed markets behind it, a win rate above 55 percent, a lifetime result in the black, and an average buy price low enough to rule out farming.

Between yesterday's daily snapshot and today's, the twenty largest one-day P&L moves we track included exactly two wallets from that second list. Eighteen carried no tag at all.

Across the past week that daily count has stayed at six or lower, which leaves at least fourteen of any day's twenty sitting outside the filter.

The filter is narrow on purpose, and missing it is not a verdict. A wallet can be millions of dollars up over its life and still fall out, because the filter also asks about win rate and about where that wallet tends to buy.

Every one of these lists prints the money. Which window it came from is the part the reader has to supply.

The second list is what the leaderboard shows by default: a record filter rather than a day's scoreboard. Its four thresholds are printed above the first row. orcalayer.com/leaderboard

Polymarket airdrop checker. paste an address, no wallet connect, no login.

it scores that wallet against the eight metrics that showed up most often across fifteen published airdrop formulas. farmer risk sits as a separate number instead of being folded into the score, so a big volume wallet cannot hide behind it. every weight is printed on the page.

the no-connect part sounds obvious until you count how many polymarket airdrop pages ask you to connect first. some of those drain you.

it will not tell you what you would receive. nobody can, the criteria do not exist yet. it tells you where a wallet sits among 1,848,077 wallets that have actually traded.

built it a few weeks back, the numbers above are what came out of it. free, no account.

https://orcalayer.com/airdrop

On Polymarket you can trade anonymously. You cannot trade invisibly.

Two federal cases this year made the difference obvious — and in both, the trades were never hidden. They couldn't be.

Every position is written to a public chain the second it's made. 🐋

That chain is what we read — every wallet, every position, no signup: orcalayer.com

Fourteen of the twenty highest-volume markets on our board are trading outside the 5 to 95 cent band at any given moment. That is the average across 56 snapshots of Polymarket taken over two days.

Those fourteen carry 76 percent of the dollar volume on the list. The markets where the outcome is still in doubt carry about one dollar in five.

A volume ranking is mostly a record of things that are already over.

🌡️ One thermometer decides the whole market.

Every Polymarket temperature market settles on a single number — the official METAR reading at one reference station. One instrument, standing in a field at an airport.

And there are 51 of them: 51 cities, 33 time zones, 214 live events, a market open in every one.

The weather desk tracks all 51 on one screen, refreshed every 30s, with six months of history behind it — 63,298 settled markets with forecast and outcome.

Open it here → whop.com/joined/orcalayer/orca-layer-NEi6bmu84YbsQt/app/

🌍 New: the weather desk is live.

Polymarket runs a temperature market in 51 cities every day — 214 live events, $3.5M in 24h volume — and it's the least-tooled corner of the platform.

What's in it: → All 51 cities on one screen, refreshed every 30s — day high/low, leading bucket, price, book volume, station local phase → Six months of history: 63,298 closed temperature markets with forecast and outcome → Planet view: real satellite clouds from 4 weather satellites, hourly, every dot a live market → City pages: live observations, forecast range, order-book depth, trader track records

The model-vs-market column is new, unvalidated, and filled for 22 of the 51 cities so far — an empty cell means no forecast yet, not a zero. A wide gap often has a boring cause: station bias, a rounding boundary, or a max that's already been observed. Triage list, not a trade list.

Open it here → whop.com/joined/orcalayer/orca-layer-NEi6bmu84YbsQt/app/

🔧 Service restored after a hardware failure
Early Sunday morning the primary database drive on our server failed and had to be physically replaced at the datacenter. The database has been rebuilt from backups.
Everything is back: all 1.44 billion indexed trades, leaderboards, whale analytics, market pages, ISW territory monitor and the weather markets tracker. The indexer has caught up to the chain head — data is live and current.
One thing needs your attention 👇
Personal alert settings in our Telegram bot did not survive the failure. If you had watched whales, watched markets, muted addresses or custom filters, those lists are now empty — the bot still works, but it sends you general alerts only.
To restore your setup:

1. Open @orcalayer_bot
2. Send /start — re-linking takes a second
3. Re-add your whales and markets in /settings

Not affected: your account, plan, subscription and API keys. Billing data was restored in full — nothing to do on your side.
Sorry for the interruption. The backups did their job, and we've since widened what they cover so this particular gap can't repeat.

Polymarket's crowd pays 40 cents for Ethereum falling to $1,500 this year.

Smart wallets moved $67,000 through that market in six hours. About $1,300 of that bought the fall.

The crash is a crowd trade.

🐋 We made a nature documentary about the order book.

In the shallows, the crowd feeds — safe in numbers. In the deep, the orca doesn't chase. It lets the crowd come to it. By the time the shoal reacts, the position is already taken.

Same law in crypto. Right now:
→ "Bitcoin reaches $90,000 by Dec 31" — the market says 21%
→ 57% of verified profitable wallets are on YES (218 vs 164)

Every creature in Sonar is a real trade. Plankton = small fills, whales = $100K, orcas = $500K+.

Open Sonar right here → whop.com/joined/orcalayer/orca-layer-NEi6bmu84YbsQt/app/