Welcome aboard. You now have access to quantitative prediction market plays backed by CLV analysis. Here's how to get the most out of your membership.

How This Works

Every evening, we publish Nightly Plays — our top prediction market positions across Kalshi and Polymarket for the next 24-48 hours. Each play includes:

• The contract — Exact market and position (YES/NO, price target)

• Entry price — Where we're getting in

• Thesis — The quantitative reasoning behind the trade

• Suggested sizing — Based on conviction level and bankroll management principles

• CLV tracking — After resolution, we document closing line value so you can see the actual edge

Your Daily Routine

1. Check Nightly Plays each evening — New plays drop between 7-9 PM ET

2. Read the Nightly Recaps — Every morning we break down what happened, what hit, what missed, and the CLV numbers

3. Track your own results — We recommend keeping a simple spreadsheet: entry price, closing price, outcome, P&L

Bankroll Rules We Live By

• Never risk more than 5% of your bankroll on a single play

• Start with flat sizing until you're comfortable with the flow

• Don't chase — if you miss an entry, wait for the next one. There's always another edge.

Upgrading Your Access

Your current tier gives you Nightly Plays and Recaps. Higher tiers unlock:

• Premium — Additional high-conviction plays + direct chat access

• VIP — Exclusive plays with deeper analysis + VIP chat

• Platinum — Everything + 1-on-1 access and first-look plays

Questions?

Drop a comment below. Let's build that bankroll.

— SportsGeekHQ

Most people approach prediction markets like gambling. They chase headlines, bet on vibes, and wonder why their bankroll evaporates.

The problem isn't the markets. It's the lack of edge quantification.

What is CLV (Closing Line Value)?

CLV measures whether you consistently buy contracts at better prices than where they settle before resolution. It's the single most reliable indicator of long-term profitability in any prediction market — Kalshi, Polymarket, or otherwise.

Here's why: markets get more efficient as they approach resolution. If you're consistently entering positions at prices that move in your favor before the event resolves, you have genuine edge. If you're not, you're paying the market's vig and bleeding out slowly.

A Simple Example

Say you buy YES on "Fed holds rates in March" at 62¢ on Kalshi. By the time the event locks, that contract is trading at 71¢. Your CLV is +9¢ per contract — regardless of whether the Fed actually holds.

That +9¢ is your edge. Over hundreds of trades, positive CLV compounds into real profit. Negative CLV compounds into blown accounts.

Why This Matters More Than Win Rate

A 60% win rate means nothing if your average entry is worse than closing. You can win 60% of your trades and still lose money if your sizing and entry prices are off.

Conversely, you can run a 45% hit rate and be deeply profitable if your CLV is consistently positive and your position sizing is disciplined.

The Three Pillars

1. Entry price vs. closing price — Are you getting in before the market catches up?

2. Position sizing — Are you scaling into high-CLV spots and trimming low-conviction plays?

3. Bankroll management — Are you surviving the variance to let your edge compound?

Most traders track none of these. They screenshot winners and delete losers.

We track all of them. Every play we publish at SportsGeekHQ includes the entry price, the thesis, and — after resolution — the CLV analysis. Full transparency, no cherry-picking.

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If you want to see how quantitative CLV analysis works in real-time across Kalshi and Polymarket, check out our membership tiers. We publish nightly plays with full documentation.

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