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The biggest mistake people make when following world events: they read the news like it's a story with good guys and bad guys.

Geopolitics doesn't work that way. Every state actor is pursuing interests — security, economic leverage, regional influence, domestic stability. Once you learn to read events through the lens of interests rather than narratives, the world starts making a lot more sense.

Three things I look at before forming any analysis:

1. Who benefits from the status quo? The actors fighting hardest to maintain or disrupt the current order tell you everything about the power dynamics.

1. What are the second-order effects? A ceasefire in one region changes the calculus for allies and adversaries three borders away. Always zoom out.

1. Follow the resources, not the rhetoric. Energy routes, trade corridors, rare earth minerals — these are the real drivers. Speeches are for domestic audiences.

I break this down in weekly briefings at The Geopolitical Brief. Free to join.