The 70% rule almost killed my first flip (here's the fix nobody tells beginners)
Everyone tells new flippers to use the 70% rule: max offer = (ARV × 0.70) − repair costs. Solid starting point. Nobody tells you the two ways it screws beginners:
You lowball your repair estimate because you've never actually rehabbed a house, so the "70%" math looks amazing on paper and falls apart the second a contractor opens a wall.
You use it in markets where it doesn't apply. The 70% rule was built for higher-margin, lower-price markets. Try it in a $600k ARV market and you'll never win a bid — sellers will laugh at your offer.
What actually works for a first deal: run the 70% rule as a sanity check, not gospel. Then get THREE contractor walkthroughs before you ever submit an offer close to your max number. Takes longer. Saves you from losing your shirt on deal #1.
Happy to answer questions if anyone's stuck evaluating their first deal.