BTC ~$86,300, basically flat. Yesterday tagged $87,350 and got rejected. Today's high ~$86,850. No follow-through.

$85K held. Intraday low ~$85,100. The dump into the low $82s never showed.

Boxed $85K–$87,350. Supertrend still long ~$83,400, 4H EMA9 ~$84,500. RSI cooled off those hourly mid-80s.

Spot ETFs printed ~$999M Monday (~11,500 BTC). Real bid under the squeeze. Next supply is $88K–$91K. $90K is the magnet if we close a 4H through $87,350.

Bullish while $85K holds. Continuation needs that reclaim. Lose $85K and $84K then $83,400 is next.

Not financial advice. Just what I see on the chart.

BTC around $86,400, up ~6.5% after ripping through the $82K wall and tagging $87,350. First print above $87K since late January.

4H support is $85,000-$85,600 first. That's where the squeeze cooled. Lose it and $84,000 then the broken $82,000-$83,000 wall. Resistance is $87,000-$87,350, then $90,000. The old $83K-$86K supply shelf just got run.

Structure: the $80K-$82K box is dead. Spot and ETF buying punched $82K, then $449M-$648M in shorts got liquidated through $84K-$85K and the move accelerated. 4H is stretched, daily RSI ~73, hourly in the mid-80s, price sitting above the upper Bollinger. Weekly close above the 50-week MA is the bigger tell. Squeeze plus spot, not just a wick.

Bias: leaning bullish after the $82K close. I'm not chasing $87K. Need $85K to hold or this is just another squeeze high.

Watch for a 4H hold above $85K, or a rejection at $87,350 that dumps this back into the low $82s.

Not financial advice. Just what I see on the chart.

BTC around $81,200, basically flat. Briefly tagged $82,000 this morning and got slapped back.

4H support is still $80,000-$80,300 first. Lose that and $79,500 then the 50 EMA near $78,150. Resistance is $81,500-$81,900, then $82,000-$82,300. That's the wall that rejected the Sep 19 high at $81,914 and this morning's poke. Above that, $82,850 then $83K-$86K.

Structure: still boxed $80K-$82K. Second test of $82K failed to stick. 4H RSI is stretched in the mid-70s. Daily uptrend is intact above the MAs, but the 4H is just chopping under supply. US ETF books reopen today after a weekend with no flow.

Bias: still leaning bullish while $80K holds, but this is a range until $82K actually closes. Two rejections is not a breakout.

Watch for a 4H close through $82,200, or a loss of $80K that opens $78K.

Not financial advice. Just what I see on the chart.

BTC around $81,200, basically flat overnight after Friday's squeeze. $80K held.

4H support is still $80,000 first, then the Supertrend line at $78,677 and the 20-day SMA near $78,150. Resistance is $81,750-$82,200 (September 3 high / range ceiling), then $82,850. Above that, $83K-$86K is the real supply shelf. About 1.07M BTC was bought there.

Structure: the squeeze breakout is being digested, not extended. 4H Supertrend still bullish, but Aroon Up cooled from 100% to ~86%. Weekend books are thin with no US ETF flow. SOPR is above 1, so profit-taking is getting absorbed, but we have not taken the $82K wall yet.

Bias: still leaning bullish while $80K holds. This is a pause, not a reversal. Continuation needs $82K.

Watch for a 4H close through $82,200, or a loss of $80K that turns Friday into a squeeze wick.

Not financial advice. Just what I see on the chart.

BTC around $81,200, up ~6% after ripping from the $75,560 monthly low. Yesterday's $76,300 bounce just ran every level we were watching.

4H support is $80,000-$80,250 first. That's old resistance that has to hold or this is a squeeze wick. Lose it and $78,150 (20-day SMA) then $77,500-$77,700 are next. Resistance is $81,250-$81,350 (intraday high / upper BB), then $81,750-$82,000 at the September peak.

Structure: the descending channel from the ~$82K early-September high is broken. Two-leg advance through $78K and $80K, with ~$250M in shorts liquidated in four hours. 4H Supertrend flipped bullish and RSI is stretched in the mid-70s. Daily RSI ~63, not overbought yet. Squeeze breakout, not a slow grind.

Bias: leaning bullish after the channel break, but I'm not chasing $81K until $80K holds as support.

Watch for a 4H hold above $80K, or a rejection at $82K that dumps this back into the high $70s.

Not financial advice. Just what I see on the chart.

BTC around $76,300, up ~1% after holding $75K through the hike. Wednesday's $75,242 print is still the low.

4H support is $76,000-$76,300 first. Lose that and $75,000 is next, then $74,700 (lower Bollinger / 38.2% retrace). Below that, $73,500 and Glassnode's $71.3K STH cost basis. Resistance is $76,800-$77,000 (Bollinger basis, 100H MA ~$76,840), then the broken $77,100 range floor / 200H MA. Above that, $78,800-$79,000.

Structure: still inside the descending channel from the ~$82K early-September peak. Higher lows off $75K, but we're basing under a wall of MAs (50H4 ~$77,168, 100H4 ~$78,121). RSI 44-46, still under 50. Spot showed ~$15.5M net buying after the hike got priced in. ETF flows are still weak. Recovery attempt under a ceiling, not a breakout.

Bias: cautious-neutral until we reclaim $77,100. The bounce is real. The structure isn't.

Watch for a 4H close above $77,100 to kill the breakdown, or a loss of $76K that puts $75K back in play.

Not financial advice. Just what I see on the chart.