Trend Rebel

Midday read — Friday, August 28, 2026 · 11:55 AM ET

Warsh said nothing, and the market believed him. S&P 7,733.19 (+0.03%), Nasdaq 26,516.76 (−0.09%), Dow 53,637.59 (+0.13%). VIX 14.49.

The most anticipated speech of the year delivered exactly what the tape feared. No reaction function. No forward guidance. Warsh called himself impressed by the economy's strength, then said this summer's inflation readings — better than expected as they were — do not tell him underlying trends have meaningfully improved. His framing was blunt: market participants should not be looking primarily to the Fed for their next trade.

Watch the sparkline. The S&P jumped from 7,732 to 7,771 in the twenty minutes after he spoke, then bled the entire move back within the hour. Traders bought the absence of a hawkish surprise, then remembered that absence of guidance is the problem, not the relief. September odds sat near one in three going in, and nothing today moved them.

The rotation is the real story. Money left the AI winner and went straight back to the old guard: AMZN +3.61%, AAPL +2.25% clearing $321, MSFT +1.97%, GOOGL +1.97%. Against that, NVDA −2.60% giving back a third of yesterday's pop, MRVL −9.29%, SMH −2.53%, AMD −1.71%.

One day after the best AI print in history, the chips are the worst group on the board. That's what a market with no policy roadmap does — it takes profits and hides in the names that don't need cheap money.

Closing out August next week.

🍌 See you all on the trading floor

Midday read — Thursday, August 27, 2026 · 12:20 PM ET

The streak breaks. S&P 7,723.67 (+0.62%), Nasdaq 26,477.37 (+1.33%), Dow 53,627.00 (+0.31%). VIX crushed to 14.48.

Nine companies beat this month and got sold for it. Nvidia beat and got paid. Revenue $96.2B, up 106% year over year. Data center $89B, up 117% and past the roughly $86B expected. EPS $2.22 against $2.09. Gross margin held at 75%. And the guide is the part that mattered: about $108B for the current quarter versus roughly $104B expected — with no China data center revenue assumed in it at all.

NVDA +8.82% to $228.15 on volume already north of 160 million shares.

The line that reframes the whole AI debate: management sees capex among the five largest hyperscalers rising to roughly $1.3 trillion next year from about $800 billion this year. Every card since July 22 has tracked the market punishing companies for spending on AI. Nvidia just told everyone the spending accelerates from here, and the tape bought it.

Software came along for the ride. CRM +20.59% and CRWD +17.26% both reported strong and both got rewarded — the second and third confirmation that the punish-every-beat reflex has flipped.

The rotation inside is worth watching. AVGO +3.52% and SMH +2.49% joined, but MU −2.81% and AMD −1.96% are being sold to fund it. Money is concentrating into the winner, not spreading across the group.

Warsh at Jackson Hole tomorrow. The market just got its answer on AI demand. Tomorrow it asks about the cost of money.

🍌 See you all on the trading floor

Midday read — Wednesday, August 26, 2026 · 12:05 PM ET

Flat and waiting. S&P 7,670.79 (−0.08%), Nasdaq 26,065.69 (−0.33%), Dow 53,469.27 (−0.20%). VIX 15.58.

PCE came in split. Headline rose 0.2% on the month and 3.7% over twelve, both a tenth hotter than forecast. Core — the number the Fed actually watches — matched at 0.2% and 3.3%, unchanged from June. Traders read the second one and moved on. September hike odds barely budged, the long end stayed put, and a mildly hot headline that would have moved this market two weeks ago did nothing.

That's the story of the session. Nobody is trading anything until 4:20 pm.

Nvidia reports tonight against roughly $92B in expected revenue and about $2.09 a share. The stock is −1.26% into it, giving back yesterday's chip rally. AVGO −1.61% and SMH −0.47% are soft with it, though MU +0.62% and AMD +0.79% are holding.

Meta is the day's oddity — +1.24% to $577 after agreeing to settle the social media addiction case for roughly $16.7 billion. A number that size getting bought tells you how badly the market wanted that overhang gone.

Elsewhere, AAPL +0.99% extends its defensive run while GOOGL −1.53% and TSLA −1.59% fund it. BSX −4.51% after disclosing a cyberattack hitting operations.

Warsh Friday. One event at a time.

🍌 See you all on the trading floor

Midday read — Tuesday, August 25, 2026 · 11:30 AM ET

Chips get bought back. S&P 7,667.85 (+0.20%), Nasdaq 26,101.90 (+0.47%), Dow 53,454.52 (+0.07%). VIX 15.64.

Complete inversion of yesterday. The group that got cleared out ahead of Nvidia is the group leading today: MRVL +6.32%, AMD +5.07%, MU +2.43% back over $930, SMH +1.45%, INTC +1.45%. NVDA itself +1.22% to $211.02.

Two sessions, opposite directions, same catalyst. That isn't conviction either way. It's a market with one position left to take and twenty-four hours to decide.

Consumer confidence landed at 89.4 in August, a seven-month low, missing the roughly 90.2 expected, with households more downbeat about the labor market and inflation further out. Nobody blinked. It's the fourth consumer datapoint this month pointing the same direction, and the tape has stopped pricing them.

Mega-cap is funding it. AMZN −0.61%, GOOGL −0.47%, AAPL −0.40% all red while the chips run. TSLA +1.33% and META +0.81% are the exceptions.

The index opened at its high of 7,686 and has faded since, so the green screen overstates the buying.

Nvidia lands tomorrow after the close with PCE the same morning, then Warsh at Jackson Hole Friday. Eight beats got punished this month. Everything about this week rests on whether the ninth breaks that pattern.

Midday read — Monday, August 24, 2026 · 2:15 PM ET

Mixed tape, one clear victim. S&P 7,657.08 (−0.23%), Nasdaq 26,044.44 (−0.52%), Dow 53,365.37 (+0.17%). VIX 15.73.

The chips are getting cleared out ahead of Nvidia Wednesday. SMH −2.17% to a three-week low, MU −5.19% back under $920, SNDK −6.26%, AMD −3.16%, MRVL −3.04%, AVGO −2.03%, and NVDA itself −2.33% to $209.72. Micron has now given back roughly 11% from last Monday's push through $1,000.

That's de-risking, not a verdict. Nvidia has to clear a bar that eight straight beats got punished for this month, and nobody wants to be long the read-through if it misses.

Everything else is fine, which is the tell. The Dow is green. META +1.55%, AMZN +1.53%, GOOGL +1.22% and MSFT +0.87% are all bid, and AAPL +0.75% keeps grinding. Money isn't leaving equities. It's leaving one crowded group.

The macro overhang is Iran. Washington rolled out an expanded sanctions campaign aimed at cutting off Tehran's remaining trade partners, and Iran has answered by threatening to halt oil exports outright. That's a live two-way risk on crude into a bond market where the 30-year still sits above 5%.

Three events left this week and they stack: Nvidia Wednesday, PCE, and Warsh at Jackson Hole Friday. Anything that moves the AI trade, inflation, or the long end lands in the next four sessions. Today is the market clearing its throat.

Character count: 1,412

🍌 See you all on the trading floor