Trend Rebel

Midday read — Wednesday, August 26, 2026 · 12:05 PM ET

Flat and waiting. S&P 7,670.79 (−0.08%), Nasdaq 26,065.69 (−0.33%), Dow 53,469.27 (−0.20%). VIX 15.58.

PCE came in split. Headline rose 0.2% on the month and 3.7% over twelve, both a tenth hotter than forecast. Core — the number the Fed actually watches — matched at 0.2% and 3.3%, unchanged from June. Traders read the second one and moved on. September hike odds barely budged, the long end stayed put, and a mildly hot headline that would have moved this market two weeks ago did nothing.

That's the story of the session. Nobody is trading anything until 4:20 pm.

Nvidia reports tonight against roughly $92B in expected revenue and about $2.09 a share. The stock is −1.26% into it, giving back yesterday's chip rally. AVGO −1.61% and SMH −0.47% are soft with it, though MU +0.62% and AMD +0.79% are holding.

Meta is the day's oddity — +1.24% to $577 after agreeing to settle the social media addiction case for roughly $16.7 billion. A number that size getting bought tells you how badly the market wanted that overhang gone.

Elsewhere, AAPL +0.99% extends its defensive run while GOOGL −1.53% and TSLA −1.59% fund it. BSX −4.51% after disclosing a cyberattack hitting operations.

Warsh Friday. One event at a time.

🍌 See you all on the trading floor

Midday read — Tuesday, August 25, 2026 · 11:30 AM ET

Chips get bought back. S&P 7,667.85 (+0.20%), Nasdaq 26,101.90 (+0.47%), Dow 53,454.52 (+0.07%). VIX 15.64.

Complete inversion of yesterday. The group that got cleared out ahead of Nvidia is the group leading today: MRVL +6.32%, AMD +5.07%, MU +2.43% back over $930, SMH +1.45%, INTC +1.45%. NVDA itself +1.22% to $211.02.

Two sessions, opposite directions, same catalyst. That isn't conviction either way. It's a market with one position left to take and twenty-four hours to decide.

Consumer confidence landed at 89.4 in August, a seven-month low, missing the roughly 90.2 expected, with households more downbeat about the labor market and inflation further out. Nobody blinked. It's the fourth consumer datapoint this month pointing the same direction, and the tape has stopped pricing them.

Mega-cap is funding it. AMZN −0.61%, GOOGL −0.47%, AAPL −0.40% all red while the chips run. TSLA +1.33% and META +0.81% are the exceptions.

The index opened at its high of 7,686 and has faded since, so the green screen overstates the buying.

Nvidia lands tomorrow after the close with PCE the same morning, then Warsh at Jackson Hole Friday. Eight beats got punished this month. Everything about this week rests on whether the ninth breaks that pattern.

Midday read — Monday, August 24, 2026 · 2:15 PM ET

Mixed tape, one clear victim. S&P 7,657.08 (−0.23%), Nasdaq 26,044.44 (−0.52%), Dow 53,365.37 (+0.17%). VIX 15.73.

The chips are getting cleared out ahead of Nvidia Wednesday. SMH −2.17% to a three-week low, MU −5.19% back under $920, SNDK −6.26%, AMD −3.16%, MRVL −3.04%, AVGO −2.03%, and NVDA itself −2.33% to $209.72. Micron has now given back roughly 11% from last Monday's push through $1,000.

That's de-risking, not a verdict. Nvidia has to clear a bar that eight straight beats got punished for this month, and nobody wants to be long the read-through if it misses.

Everything else is fine, which is the tell. The Dow is green. META +1.55%, AMZN +1.53%, GOOGL +1.22% and MSFT +0.87% are all bid, and AAPL +0.75% keeps grinding. Money isn't leaving equities. It's leaving one crowded group.

The macro overhang is Iran. Washington rolled out an expanded sanctions campaign aimed at cutting off Tehran's remaining trade partners, and Iran has answered by threatening to halt oil exports outright. That's a live two-way risk on crude into a bond market where the 30-year still sits above 5%.

Three events left this week and they stack: Nvidia Wednesday, PCE, and Warsh at Jackson Hole Friday. Anything that moves the AI trade, inflation, or the long end lands in the next four sessions. Today is the market clearing its throat.

Character count: 1,412

🍌 See you all on the trading floor