Trend Rebel

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Trend Rebel

@trendrebel·1d

MIDDAY MARKET RECAP — Friday, October 9, 2026

S&P 500: 7,800.33, +0.45%

Nasdaq: 27,324.47, +131.13, +0.48%

Dow: 51,486.93, +255.29, +0.50%

Green across the board and almost perfectly even — all three indexes within five basis points of each other. VIX down 3.2% to 14.92. On the surface, a clean bounce after two down days.

Underneath it, silicon did not come along. Micron is down 1.61% to $1,019.17, its third straight loss, and the four-figure handle I have been pointing at for two weeks is nineteen dollars away. AMD off 1.46%. Taiwan Semi off 1.37%. SMH down 0.61% on a day the Nasdaq is up half a percent. SanDisk red again, Intel red again. Three consecutive sessions of the chip complex lagging — and today it is lagging into strength, which is the version that matters.

The lifting is coming from software and mega-cap. Oracle up 4.89% to $141.80, best large-cap on the board. Palantir up 3.45% at $205.64, second straight day ignoring the rest of tech. Amazon +2.43%, Microsoft +2.19%, Alphabet +0.85%. Money is not leaving technology. It is moving from the companies that build the hardware to the ones that rent the output.

Everything else is quietly participating. Caterpillar, Deere and Eaton all green — Wednesday’s industrial wreckage is two days into repair. Energy holds, Exxon +0.99%. Gold +1.43%. Goldman and JPMorgan green. A broad, low-volatility advance with one conspicuous hole in it.

The S&P opened 7,786.36, dipped to 7,782 early, and has climbed a steady staircase since, tagging 7,805 before settling just under 7,800. The year high at 7,844.52 is half a percent overhead.

Into the close I want one thing: does MU hold four figures. A close under $1,000 after three down days turns a pullback into a trend, and it happens with the index near its high. That divergence does not resolve quietly.

The index is healing. The chips are not. Watch which one blinks.

Trend Rebel

@trendrebel·2d

Whoops! Did I say 70 Billion, LMAO I meant 50 Billion. Sorry bout that!

Trend Rebel

@trendrebel·2d

MIDDAY MARKET RECAP — Thursday, October 8, 2026

S&P 500: 7,771.42, -0.39%

Nasdaq: 27,357.15, -181.54, -0.66%

Dow: 50,995.92, -0.36%

Yesterday I said industrials were being repriced and memory was being accumulated. Today the tape ran that in reverse, and the answer was uglier than I wanted.

Memory is the worst group on the board. SanDisk is down 3.38% to $1,635.23, handing back every bit of yesterday's gain and more. Intel off 3.59%. Seagate off 2.58%. Micron down 2.11% to $1,065.05, still above the four-figure handle but no longer comfortably. One session of strength on a red day looked like sponsorship. The next morning it looks like a bounce that got sold. That is the whole difference between accumulation and a dead cat, and you only find out which one you had on the follow-through day.

Meanwhile yesterday's wreckage barely moved. Caterpillar is down 0.86% after a 6.5% hit. Eaton is green. Goldman off 0.79%, JPMorgan 0.89%. Yesterday got absorbed, not extended — which tells you it was a repricing event, not the start of a trend.

The real leadership is energy. Crude up 4.3%, XLE up 3.0%, Exxon up 2.93% at $168.86, Chevron 3.06%, ConocoPhillips 3.28%. The whole complex moving together is what a genuine sector bid looks like. Palantir is up 2.44% at $198.85, breaking ranks with a Nasdaq down two-thirds of a percent.

The index has been orderly. Opened 7,778.45, rallied to 7,792 by 10:30, faded the whole thing, grinding near the lows since 11:15. VIX 15.49, up 2.7%. Two down days off a record and the S&P has given back less than a percent. Nobody is panicking.

Into the close: does memory find a bid in the last hour or close on its lows. A low close in SNDK and MU says yesterday was noise. Energy I want to see hold — a crude-led tape changes which groups work for the rest of October.

Yesterday's leader is today's laggard. Respect the rotation, don't marry it.

🍌 See you all on the trading floor

Trend Rebel

@trendrebel·3d

Trend Rebel

@trendrebel·3d

MIDDAY MARKET RECAP — Wednesday, October 7, 2026

S&P 500: 7,776.20, -0.55%

Nasdaq: 27,419.76, -0.65%

Dow: 50,985.59, -535.69, -1.04%

Yesterday the S&P and Nasdaq both printed record closes. Today the Dow is paying the bill, and the split matters more than the size. A half-percent pullback off a record is noise. A Dow losing twice what the S&P loses is a rotation, and the names doing the damage name it for you.

Caterpillar is down 6.48% to $807.50, the worst in the index by a wide margin. Eaton off 3.85%. Deere off 3.37%. Honeywell, GE, 3M all red. That is the heavy-machinery and electrical-equipment complex getting repriced in one session, with the 10-year already at 5.27% coming into today. Long project cycles do not like that math, and the tape is finally saying so out loud. Goldman is down 2.58%, JPMorgan 1.30% — higher rates are only the banks' friend when the move is slow.

Here is the part worth your attention. Memory did not participate. Micron is up 2.30% at $1,069.58, holding the four-figure handle. SanDisk up 2.93%. Dell and HPE both green. That group has been unwinding for two weeks, and today, on a broad red tape, it bid. When the selling is indiscriminate and one group refuses to go with it, that group has real sponsorship underneath.

The S&P opened at 7,792.98, sold immediately, and has spent the session in a 30-point box below the open. No flush, no capitulation volume. VIX 15.64, up 4.2% — higher, nowhere near stress. This is a repricing, not a break.

Into the close I want two things: can the S&P reclaim the open, and does memory hold its gains once the index names stop falling. Green closes in MU and SNDK on a red day is a tell. A last-hour fade is a different story.

Industrials are being repriced. Memory is being accumulated. Don't confuse the two.

🍌 See you all on the trading floor

Trend Rebel

@trendrebel·4d

Trend Rebel

@trendrebel·4d

Trend Rebel

@trendrebel·4d

Midday read — Monday, October 5, 2026 · 11:55 AM ET

Fresh record on the Nasdaq. S&P 7,761.10 (+0.50%), Nasdaq 27,397.65 (+206.78, +0.76%), Dow 51,166.55 (−10.41, −0.02%). VIX 15.57.

The Nasdaq printed an all-time high of 27,407.52 this morning, clearing its September 23 peak, and it's holding near the top of the range rather than fading it.

Worth putting this in context. Thursday the S&P broke below its 50-day for the first time since August and I flagged the 200-day at 7,217 as the next real level. Three sessions later the index is 103 points above that 50-day and 0.71% from its own record. The break lasted a day.

Today's shape confirms it: opened at 7,730.86, low of 7,727.59 in the first five minutes, and it has climbed in a near-straight line since. That's two sessions in a row where the open was the low — the inverse of the fade pattern that ran through late September.

Mega-cap is doing the work. META +2.21% to $744 is the leader, TSLA +1.75% clearing $377, MSFT +1.74% to $526.55, NVDA +1.17% to $236.70 for a sixth green session. GOOGL +0.46% and AMZN +0.21% modestly higher, AAPL −0.03% flat.

The chips are not participating. INTC −1.69%, MU −0.96% at $1,064, AMD −0.26%, SNDK −0.32%, and SMH +0.16% is flat only because Nvidia and AVGO +1.64% are carrying it. The memory complex has been unwinding for two weeks straight while the index recovers.

The Dow is the one red index again, which is now the default — it has no mega-cap software weight and the old-guard names aren't getting bid.

New quarter, new high, and the leadership has rotated out of silicon and into the names that sell the software.

🍌 See you all on the trading floor

Trend Rebel

@trendrebel·5d

Trend Rebel

@trendrebel·5d

Midday read — Monday, October 5, 2026 · 11:55 AM ET

Fresh record on the Nasdaq. S&P 7,761.10 (+0.50%), Nasdaq 27,397.65 (+206.78, +0.76%), Dow 51,166.55 (−10.41, −0.02%). VIX 15.57.

The Nasdaq printed an all-time high of 27,407.52 this morning, clearing its September 23 peak, and it's holding near the top of the range rather than fading it.

The Dow is the one red index again, which is now the default — it has no mega-cap software weight and the old-guard names aren't getting bid.

New quarter, new high, and the leadership has rotated out of silicon and into the names that sell the software.

🍌 See you all on the trading floor