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Tobias Lynge

@cbcfounder·7h

Bitcoin is back inside the bull market support band. Will the recent lows hold?

With the U.S. midterm elections taking place today, I’m expecting sharp swings over the coming days and into next week.

Bitcoin is testing the upper bull market support band around $76.7K. The lower boundary sits around $73.0K, with the 200-day average nearby at roughly $73.2K in this chart snapshot.

My base case is a deeper pullback into the band, potentially with another test of the recent lows.

If those lows break and Bitcoin fails to recover them, that would strengthen my downside case and bring the lower band and 200-day average into sharper focus.

If buyers defend the lows and Bitcoin reclaims the upper band, that would strengthen the case for a medium-term low forming within this pullback. A bounce alone wouldn’t confirm it; I want to see whether buyers can sustain the recovery.

The candles are 1H; the support band is weekly and the 200-day average uses daily data.

What would convince you the lows are holding: a successful retest, sustained closes above support, or something else?

Tobias Lynge

@cbcfounder·1d

Bitcoin: a bounce is one thing. A recovery needs more.

Bitcoin is trading above the bull market support band, but remains below its 50-day simple moving average.

For me, a sustained short-term recovery means buyers defending that band, the 20-week SMA and 21-week EMA, then reclaiming the 50-day SMA and holding it.

Touching a level isn’t the same as establishing support. I’m interested in what happens after the initial reaction: do buyers keep showing up, or does the move fade?

These are the conditions I’m watching, not a claim that a recovery is confirmed. Even if they align, they won’t guarantee further gains.

What would you need to see before calling a bounce a more durable recovery?

Tobias Lynge

@cbcfounder·4d

Binance hacked: what could this mean for the crypto market?

Binance estimates the impact of its overnight security incident at $6.3 billion, with roughly $3 billion frozen. Frozen does not mean recovered.

The exchange says it will cover losses through SAFU and company funds. That is a commitment, not confirmation that customers have already been repaid. As of its 30 October update, Binance says deposits operate normally while withdrawals remain paused.

Bitcoin briefly approached $76,000 during 29–30 October, before recovering some ground.

How can an exchange hack affect the wider market?

• Confidence: uncertainty can make investors more cautious about exchange custody and taking risk.

• Access to funds: paused withdrawals restrict traders’ ability to move assets between platforms.

• Liquidations: falling prices can force leveraged long positions to close, potentially adding selling pressure.

An exchange breach does not, by itself, establish a failure of Bitcoin’s underlying network. The investigation, safe withdrawal restoration and delivery on Binance’s coverage commitment remain important to watch.

CBC's view: I see this incident as a catalyst for the sell-off, although the chart alone cannot establish how much of the move it caused. We intend to use this weakness as an opportunity to work toward our planned target allocations, positioning for a potential next leg up.

That is our outlook, not a confirmed bottom. Prices could fall further, and we will reassess if the investment case changes.

Does this dip fit your existing plan, or has the incident changed your investment case?

Tobias Lynge

@cbcfounder·6d

Rate cut, hold or hike: what changes for crypto?

The Fed decides on rates today, 28 October. Here’s the simple connection to crypto.

The Fed changes a target for overnight borrowing between banks. That influences wider financing costs and the returns available on cash and short-term government debt.

• A cut can make borrowing cheaper and encourage investors to take more risk, including in crypto.

• A hold keeps the target unchanged, but guidance about future rates can still change expectations.

• A hike can raise financing costs and make interest-paying alternatives more attractive, creating a tougher backdrop for crypto.

My interpretation: the reason matters as much as the direction. Cooling inflation could allow easier policy. A cut responding to a sharp slowdown could instead leave investors worried about growth.

An expected decision and a surprise can also get different reactions. A cut alone does not guarantee a Bitcoin rally.

What would matter most to your Bitcoin outlook in the Fed’s explanation of its decision?

Tobias Lynge

@cbcfounder·Oct 26

Bitcoin this week: $82K above, $77K below

My Bitcoin view for the week of 26 October:

Price closed last week near $80K. The 20- and 50-day SMAs sit near $82K, while the bull market support band’s upper edge is around $77K.

I think short-term price action is weakening, and a test of that band looks likely. If weakness continues through it, the 200-day SMA near $73K becomes another reference.

That’s my interpretation, not a forecast the chart can prove. Moving averages follow price; the band’s name doesn’t make it a guaranteed floor. Weekly candles are shown with daily SMAs, and the newest candle is still forming.

Wednesday brings the Fed decision. Thursday brings September PCE inflation and the first Q3 GDP estimate. PCE comes after the Fed decision, but can still change expectations for future rates. The US midterms follow on 3 November.

The alternative is that October’s short-term low is forming already. Holding recent lows and recovering around $82K would challenge my cautious view.

What would convince you that the low is in?

Tobias Lynge

@cbcfounder·Oct 25

15, 30, 50 coins. Diversification or "spray and pray"?

For me, the issue is whether every position can be properly followed: why it belongs, what could go wrong, and what would change the case.

My altcoin filter is real revenue, how the token benefits, and performance against Bitcoin. The ETH/BTC chart shows what that benchmark looks like.

If the case weakens, I reassess, including whether to take profits or rotate. That needs a defined process, not a reaction to one red candle. Revenue doesn't guarantee returns, and fewer coins can increase concentration risk.

What must a coin prove before it earns a place in your portfolio?

Tobias Lynge

@cbcfounder·Oct 24

Bitcoin holding up better than metals is interesting. Oil above $116 is another part of the picture.

The attached indicative Brent reference chart is dated through 23 October. Higher energy costs can sustain inflation pressure, squeeze spending and complicate the case for lower interest rates.

My interpretation: strength against a difficult backdrop deserves attention, but it needs supporting evidence.

I'm CBC's founder. Market Pulse separates Trend, Sentiment, Capital Flows and Participation so we can ask whether the wider evidence supports a resilient price chart.

Which would you check first: sustained buying, broader participation or a change in the macro backdrop?

CBC Market Pulse is free to try during launch:

https://whop.com/cbccrypto/market-pulse-free-preview/

Chart: Trading Economics, data through 23 October 2026. USD/barrel; indicative OTC/CFD reference prices, not official settlement prices.

Source: https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil

Tobias Lynge

@cbcfounder·Oct 24

A safe haven can still have a bad week.

When investors need cash, they may sell liquid assets rather than only the assets they dislike. Expectations of higher interest rates can also pressure gold.

My interpretation: those mechanisms help explain why a familiar investment label doesn't guarantee a particular short-term result. This chart alone doesn't prove either mechanism caused the selling.

Bitcoin holding up better than metals is interesting. It doesn't automatically mean Bitcoin has taken over gold's role.

What would you look at before deciding that an asset's role in a portfolio had genuinely changed?

Chart: StreetStats, late-August–October 2026. Metals dated 23 October; Bitcoin updated 24 October at 02:45 EDT. Different trading cutoffs.

Source: https://streetstats.finance/liquidity/gold-silver-bitcoin

Tobias Lynge

@cbcfounder·Sep 22

EVERYONE IS TALKING ABOUT BITCOIN’S STRENGTH.

And honestly, I understand why.

That is exactly why I’m paying closer attention.

Think about what the market has absorbed recently:

→ The CLARITY Act failing to advance

→ The Fed raising interest rates

→ Inflation remaining elevated

→ Treasury yields approaching 5%

→ Brent oil above $100

→ Continued geopolitical uncertainty

And Bitcoin has still pushed above $85,000.

I find that pretty remarkable. These are significant headwinds, yet the market has climbed higher.

To me, that is worth paying attention to. Price holding up when the news is difficult tells us something about the market’s willingness to look beyond it.

The harder question is how much of that optimism is justified.

Are investors looking ahead to better conditions? Is demand strong enough to keep absorbing the pressure? Or are expectations running ahead of the evidence?

Personally, I want to see whether Bitcoin can hold these gains and whether demand continues to support the move.

If it can, that would strengthen the case for this recovery. If the gains quickly disappear, that would give me a different picture.

For now, I think the strength deserves recognition. I also think we should stay curious about what is supporting it.

What surprises you more: Bitcoin’s rise, or how little these headwinds seem to be slowing it down?

For more Bitcoin market context, explore CBC through my profile.

#Bitcoin #CryptoEducation #Macroeconomics

Tobias Lynge

@cbcfounder·Sep 17

The Fed raised rates. Does Bitcoin have to fall?

Not necessarily. Here’s how I look at it.

On September 16, the Fed raised its target rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.75%–4%, citing elevated inflation. Fed statement

Higher rates make borrowing more expensive. They can also make cash and short-term government debt more attractive, giving investors less reason to take additional risk.

That makes conditions tougher for crypto. But it does not tell us where Bitcoin goes next.

What investors already expected matters. So does demand for Bitcoin and whether more rate increases follow.

The Fed’s projections suggest another hike could come this year, but that is not a commitment. Fed projections

Personally, I’m watching whether inflation stays stubborn or starts cooling. That could change how long this pressure lasts.

One headline is useful information. Understanding how it connects to the wider market is what helps us assess it.

That is what I focus on at CBC: explaining Bitcoin and market conditions so you can build your own decision process.

Explore CBC through my profile if that is what you want more of.