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Fitch Ratings on Oil Prices – Latest View (as of June 2026) Fitch Ratings (a major global credit rating agency) does expect Brent crude oil to reach around $70 per barrel in August/September 2026.

Key Facts from Fitch:

Base Case Forecast: Fitch’s main 2026 average price assumption for Brent crude is $70 per barrel.
In their May 8, 2026 update, they specifically said:
Brent will stay high at $100–110/bbl during May–July 2026 (due to the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz from the Iran conflict).
Prices are then expected to fall to around $70/bbl by September, driven by returning supply and market oversupply.

This $70 level is seen as a more “normal” equilibrium price once the temporary geopolitical disruption eases and oversupply returns to the market.

Context & Drivers

Geopolitical Risk (Strait of Hormuz closure) has pushed prices higher in the short term.
Oversupply is the bigger long-term story — Fitch expects strong production growth (especially non-OPEC) to outweigh demand growth in the second half of 2026.
Their forecast assumes the Hormuz situation starts improving around July, leading to the price drop toward $70 by late summer.

Bottom Line for Investors

Fitch currently sees $70 as a realistic target for Brent in August/September 2026 in their base-case scenario.
This is lower than current prices (which have been elevated due to Middle East tensions) but still supported by some geopolitical premium.

Fitch Ratings' View on China's Oil Reserves (as of June 2026) Fitch Ratings has highlighted China’s very large oil inventories as a key factor that helps cushion global oil supply shocks (especially the recent Strait of Hormuz disruptions).

Key Points from Fitch:

In January 2026, China held approximately 1.2 billion barrels of crude oil stocks.
This represents about 15% of total global observed oil inventories (global total was 8.2 billion barrels).
Fitch noted that China’s reserves are large enough to cover its Hormuz-linked imports for over 8 months (until end-October 2026) if needed.

Context from Fitch:

China’s massive stockpiles (both strategic and commercial) give it significant energy security.
This large buffer allows China to continue importing even during major supply disruptions without immediate panic buying.
Fitch sees these high inventories as one reason why the global oil market can absorb short-term shocks relatively well before prices spiral out of control.

Summary (Investor-Friendly):

Fitch views China as having one of the world’s largest oil reserve cushions. This makes China more resilient to supply disruptions than most other major importers. Their large stockpiles (around 1.2 billion barrels in early 2026) act as a major stabilizing force in the current geopolitical environment.

China vs US Strategic Oil Reserves Comparison (as of June 2026) Here's a clear, up-to-date comparison between China’s oil reserves and the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR):

Current Inventory Levels

| Country - Government Strategic Reserves - Total Inventories (incl. Commercial) & Notes

| China ~360 million barrels ~1.4 billion barrels Largest in the world

| United States ~365 – 409 million barrels ~800 – 825 million barrels SPR is the main government reserve

Key Takeaways

China has significantly larger total oil stocks — roughly 3x the size of the US SPR in terms of government + commercial combined reserves.
China’s total inventories (1.4 billion barrels) can cover its imports for 8+ months even if all imports through the Strait of Hormuz were cut off.
The US SPR (government-controlled) is currently around 365 million barrels (as of late May 2026), down due to recent releases. It has a maximum capacity of ~714 million barrels.
China has been aggressively building reserves for years (adding ~1.1 million barrels per day in 2025).

Strategic Implications

China has a massive energy security buffer, giving it resilience during geopolitical shocks (like the current Hormuz situation).
United States has a smaller but very high-quality, easily releasable reserve (the SPR is designed for fast emergency drawdowns).
China’s commercial inventories are also much larger than the US commercial stocks.

Bottom Line:
China currently holds the world’s largest oil stockpiles, giving it a major advantage in terms of energy security compared to the United States.