Every new wholesaler learns "ARV x 70% - repairs = max offer" and then gets confused when their offers keep getting rejected or their buyers keep passing.

Here's what that formula doesn't tell you:

The 70% isn't fixed. It's a stand-in for "cash buyer's target margin + holding costs + closing costs." In a $80k ARV market, 70% might leave a flipper with only $8-10k of room — not enough. In a $400k ARV market, 70% could leave $50k+ on the table you could've captured as a bigger wholesale fee. Adjust the percentage to the price band, not a universal number.

Repair estimates from photos alone will burn you. Photos hide foundation issues, old galvanized plumbing, and roof age. If you can't get a contractor walkthrough before signing, add a 15-20% contingency buffer to whatever number you land on from photos.

Your buyers list determines your real ceiling, not the formula. If you've got 3 solid cash buyers who close fast, you can push offers higher because you know exit velocity. If you're cold-calling buyers after every contract, price conservatively — you need more margin to cover the risk of a slow or failed assignment.

The fastest way to lose deals: over-formula, under-relationship. Sellers sell to people they trust closed fast last time, not the person with the "best" number. Track your actual close rate by lead source and by offer-to-list ratio — that data will tell you more than any spreadsheet formula.

Built a tool for my own deal analysis workflow if anyone wants to compare notes on how you're running your numbers.