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🐧 Daily Recap 🚀 October 13th UP +6.58u

That’s +13.62u the past 2 days 😮‍💨

Yesterday was a BANGER!! 🤑

Imagine if Boldy didn’t miss 5 shots 🤩😂

2 leg parlay (+150) 3u ✅

Cardiff v Watford BTTS

Stoke v Middlesbrough BTTS

UCL 3 legs (-105) 5u ❌

Sporting Lisbon TT Over 0.5 goals

Inter v Club Brugge Over 2.5 goals

RB Leipzig v PSV Eindhoven Over 2.5 goals

Tampa Bay Rays ML (-130) 1u ✅

NHL 🏒 Frozen Frenzy🧊🤩

2 leg parlay (+101) 3u ✅

FLA Matthew Tkachuk point

COL Nathan MacKinnon point

SEA Bobby McMann 3+ shots (-115) 2u ❌

Matt Boldy & Kyle Connor Ladder 🪜

3+ shots each (+103) 3u ❌

4+ shots each (+295) 1u ❌

5+ shots each (+840) .5u ❌

6+ shots each (+2700) .1u ❌

🪜 Macklin Celebrini & Evan Bouchard🪜

1+ point each (+100) 3u ✅

2+ points each (+770) 1u ✅

This weekend's NFL and NHL model picks are locked in.

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VIP Week 6 Edge: NFL Line Moves and Model Notes

Wednesday board check. Sharp money has already moved several Week 6 numbers. Below is the market map, where our model still sees edge, and how to size it.

Unit rule: 1u is a small lean. 3u is a core. 5u is only when line, injury, and model all agree. Do not chase a number after it has already moved past our edge.

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Market that already moved (do not chase)

DAL @ GB (Sun 8:20 p.m. ET)

Opened Dallas -1.5. Now Green Bay -1 to -1.5. Implied win % for GB jumped from about 47% toward 52% (Elo still closer to 60% GB).

Read: This is a true flip, not noise. Value on Dallas at -1.5 is gone. Pass unless GB -1.5 or worse comes back. 0u.

CHI @ ATL (Sun 1:00 p.m.)

Opened CHI -1.5, now CHI -3. Home implied % for ATL dropped ~5 points.

Read: Steam followed Chicago. Model still likes the Bears, but -3 is the key number. CHI -3: 2u only if you still have -2.5. If you are looking at -3.5, pass.

BAL @ CLE (Sun 1:00 p.m.)

Opened BAL -3, now -4.5.

Read: Ravens money is real (BAL 4-1). Buying -4.5 after a 1.5-point move is paying the steam. BAL -3 was the number. Current: 1u max on BAL -4.5, or 0u. Prefer live if Cleveland keeps it close early.

HOU @ JAX, London (Sun 9:30 a.m.)

Spread stuck around JAX -3 / -2.5. Prediction markets drifted toward Houston even as books held.

Read: Divergence is the edge. Books lag prediction markets. HOU +3: 3u. Do not lay JAX -3.

ARI @ LAR

Opened LAR -10.5, now -13.5. Three-point move in a few days.

Read: That is blowout pricing. Fade the move: ARI +13.5: 2u. Model does not need the Rams to cover a two-score-plus number.

BUF @ LV

Opened BUF -4.5, now -6. Total still the week high (~53.5).

Read: Bills are the better team. -6 is a different bet than -4.5. BUF -6: 1u. Prefer Under 53.5: 2u if the total is still juiced from last week’s scoring narrative.

LAC @ KC

Opened KC -7.5, now -8.5. Chargers still winless in the public script.

Read: No model edge at -8.5. 0u.

CAR @ PHI

PHI opened -2.5, now -1 / -1.5. Eagles have dropped three straight.

Read: Market is losing confidence in Philly. CAR +1.5: 2u if you can still get plus money on the dog.

NO @ NYG

Favorite flipped: NO -1.5 to NYG -1.5.

Read: Coin-flip after the flip. 0u until Sunday injury reports.

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Core card (high conviction)

TNF note: SEA @ DEN Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET. Seattle opened -1.5, printed -3, settled near -2.5. Away dogs/favorites of 1.5–3.5 historically cover a bit over 54% ATS since 2021. This is a 2u, not a 5u.

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Model tracking (through Week 5)

We grade closes, not opens.

• Sides that beat the close: treat as hits even if you got a better number.

• Chased steam (paid 1.5+ after the move): tracked separately. Those have been the leak.

• Key-number discipline (3, 7, 10): still the highest ROI bucket.

If you are down this month, it is almost always unit size after a losing TNF, not the model. Cap the card at 10u combined. No 5u this week. No parlays of these sides.

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What I need from you

Lock numbers before Thursday kick. Screenshot your ticket in replies if you want it graded with the group. Injury designations Friday/Saturday can kill BAL, PHI, and GB. If a starter is out, we kill the play, we do not average down.

Protect the bankroll. The 46% churn in this room is people sizing 5u on moved lines. Stay at 1–3u and we will still be here in December.