$SPX / $ES_F Weekly Playbook | Week of Nov 9 to 13, 2026
These are my levels and my opinions, not financial advice. Trade your own plan and size for a full premium loss.
Where we are
SPX closed Friday at 7,376.86, down 2.68% on the week. Thursday lost the 7650 gamma wall and flushed to 7353. Friday held 7369, ran to 7444 and faded back to 7377. The hot jobs report (+165K vs 65K expected) has the market pricing a December hike, so this week's inflation numbers and Fed speeches will decide whether Friday's bounce was real.
Levels map (SPX)
7600 / 7650: the breakdown zone and gamma wall. Bulls only get back in control above here.
7485 / 7500: Thursday's failed bounce and the big open-interest strike. First real resistance.
7444 / 7450: Friday's high, where the recovery stalled.
7400 / 7420: the pivot. Above it, dips get bought. Below it, rallies get sold.
7350 / 7375: the floor that held twice on Friday.
7300 / 7320: next support if 7350 breaks (7320 was my ES line in the sand before the jobs report).
Scenarios
Bull: hold 7350, reclaim 7400/7420, then 7450 and 7485/7500. A soft CPI is the fuel. No chasing longs into 7500 without a reclaim.
Bear: lose 7350/7375 and negative gamma can feed the move toward 7300/7320. A hot CPI plus hawkish Fed speakers is the trigger. Last week's lesson still applies: the first bounce after a breakdown is not a reversal.
Chop: a 7375 to 7450 range into CPI. Smaller size, fewer trades, and wait for the break.
Event calendar (ET / IST)
US clocks are on standard time now, so IST is ET plus 10.5 hours. The market opens at 9:30 AM ET / 8:00 PM IST.
Mon Nov 9
Fed's Bowman 8:40 AM ET / 7:10 PM IST
Fed's Goolsbee 10:00 AM ET / 8:30 PM IST
Fed's Barkin 12:15 PM ET / 10:45 PM IST
Earnings after the close: Take-Two (TTWO)
Tue Nov 10 (the big day)
Fed's Waller 4:00 AM ET / 2:30 PM IST
October CPI 8:30 AM ET / 7:00 PM IST. Consensus is 0.3% m/m headline (prior 0.6%). There's no year-over-year rate this month because October 2025 data wasn't collected during the shutdown, so the monthly number carries all the weight.
Fed's Schmid 1:30 PM ET / 12:00 AM IST (Wed)
Fed's Paulson and Bowman 6:30 PM ET / 5:00 AM IST (Wed)
Earnings after the close: CoreWeave (CRWV)
Wed Nov 11
Veterans Day. Stocks are open but the bond market is closed, so expect thinner liquidity.
Thu Nov 12
Jobless claims 8:30 AM ET / 7:00 PM IST
Fed's Hammack 9:00 AM ET / 7:30 PM IST
Fed's Goolsbee 11:30 AM ET / 10:00 PM IST
Fed's Daly 1:10 PM ET / 11:40 PM IST
Earnings after the close: Cisco (CSCO) and Applied Materials (AMAT), calls at 4:30 PM ET / 3:00 AM IST (Fri)
Fed's Williams 6:30 PM ET / 5:00 AM IST (Fri)
Fri Nov 13
October PPI 8:30 AM ET / 7:00 PM IST. Consensus is 0.4% m/m, core 0.3% (prior 1.3% and 0.7%).
Fed's Daly 12:00 PM ET / 10:30 PM IST
Fed's Jefferson 7:00 PM ET / 5:30 AM IST (Sat)
Earnings to watch
None of my core names (QQQ, NVDA, TSLA, AAPL, META, MSFT, AMD, GOOGL) report this week. For $QQQ and $NVDA, the signal comes from Cisco and Applied Materials on Thursday night. NVDA is expected Tue Nov 17 after the close (an estimated date, not confirmed yet), so watch for positioning into it late this week.
My plan
Levels first, bias second. I'll sit on my hands into the CPI number, let the first 15 to 30 minutes show which side of 7400 wins, and size down on Tuesday and Friday.
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