Following up on the bias framework above — here's the exact template I fill out weekly so it's easy to steal:

Week of: [date]
1. Net liquidity trend (Fed BS + RRP + TGA): [rising / falling / flat]
2. DXY + real rates: [falling / rising / mixed]
3. Stablecoin supply delta (7d): [+X% / -X% / flat]
4. Exchange netflows (7d): [inflow / outflow / neutral]

If 3+ agree → directional bias (long/short)
If split 2-2 → neutral/range bias

Takes about 15 minutes a week once you have the data sources bookmarked. Way more consistent than vibes-based calls.

Been building a lot of macro bias frameworks lately, so wanted to share the actual checklist I use before calling a BTC/ETH bias for the week — steal this if it's useful.

The 4 things that actually move macro crypto bias (in order of weight):

1. Global net liquidity trend — not "is the Fed cutting," but the actual delta in the Fed balance sheet + RRP + TGA. Rising net liquidity = risk-on bias. This lags price by roughly 1-2 weeks, which is why it's predictive, not reactive.

2. DXY + real rates direction — a falling dollar with falling real yields is the single best environment for BTC. If DXY is ripping, don't fight it with a long bias no matter how bullish the on-chain data looks.

3. Stablecoin supply delta — net new USDT/USDC minted in the last 7 days tells you if fresh capital is entering the system. Flat or shrinking supply during a rally is a warning sign, not a confirmation.

4. Exchange netflows — sustained outflows = accumulation bias. Sustained inflows into exchanges = distribution risk, especially paired with high funding rates.

The mistake most people make: they weight price action and social sentiment the highest, when those are actually the most lagging signals in the list. By the time Twitter is unanimously bullish, the liquidity story that caused it is usually already 2 weeks old.

A simple rule that's saved me from bad calls: if liquidity and DXY disagree with exchange flows, default to "neutral/range" bias instead of forcing a directional call. Chop is a valid bias. Most people won't write "I don't know" in public, but it's often the correct answer.

Curious how others here weight these four inputs differently — anyone leaning more on funding rates or options skew instead?