Most coaches track "did they do it" as a yes/no. That's why retention feels random.

After running morning routine mentorship for a while, here are the 3 numbers that actually predict whether someone sticks past week 3:

1. Consistency Score (not streak length)

Streaks feel good but they break, and when they break people quit. Consistency Score = % of days hit over a rolling 7-day window. One missed day doesn't wreck the whole system — it just dips the score slightly. Way more forgiving, way more sustainable.

2. Priority Task Completion Rate

Forget "did you wake up at 5am." Track whether they completed their ONE stated priority task before 10am. This is the metric that actually correlates with them feeling like the routine is "working" — because it's tied to outcomes, not just ritual.

3. Trend Arrow (7-day vs previous 7-day)

A client at 60% consistency who was at 40% last week is winning. A client at 80% who was at 95% last week is quietly slipping and needs a check-in before they fully drop off. Absolute numbers lie. Trend direction doesn't.

If you're coaching mornings (or building your own routine), stop asking "did I do it today" and start asking "what's my 7-day trend." Completely changes how you intervene.

Built a full tracker + dashboard system around this if anyone wants to see the structure — happy to share more in comments.