The purchase price is the easy number. ARV is where deals die.

Comps from 8 months ago, a renovated kitchen two streets over, and a Zestimate are not an after-repair value. Independent investors still run this by hand in a spreadsheet, then talk themselves into the number they wanted.

Three rules that keep you honest:

1. Comps must have closed in the last 90 days, same bed/bath count, within a half mile.

2. If you have to explain why a comp "still counts," it does not count.

3. Haircut the ARV 5–8% before you underwrite. That is your margin for being wrong.

If the deal only works at the optimistic ARV, it is not a deal.