What actually kills small-scale refinery projects (it's not the engineering)
Spent years around refinery projects, and the pattern is always the same: the engineering is rarely the reason a small-scale or modular refinery dies. It's one of three things:
Permitting sequencing — investors apply for the wrong permits in the wrong order and lose 6-12 months waiting on approvals that depended on approvals they hadn't started yet.
Capital structured for the wrong stage — raising construction-phase capital before feasibility is locked means investors get spooked by the first change order.
Feedstock contracts signed too early — locking supply before your throughput capacity is finalized leaves you either overpaying or short.
Modular refineries (5,000-30,000 bbl/day range) are genuinely viable right now for independent operators — the technology and financing options have both matured a lot. But the projects that make it to first barrel treat feasibility and permitting as the actual product, not a checkbox before the 'real' work starts.
If you're mapping out a project like this, happy to talk through what stage you're at.