Simple Option Strategies

4.6 (22 Reviews)
Simple Option Strategies is a team of experienced traders delivering real-time trade alerts across SPX 0DTE, Weeklies & Weekly options, and...
387 joined
Profile picture
Simple Option StrategiesProfile picture@simpleoptionstrategies·1d
When the Market Opens Somewhere Else

When the Market Opens Somewhere Else

Hannah's trade was fine on Friday afternoon. On Monday morning, before she'd had a chance to do anything, it wasn't.

She had a put spread on SPX, with her short strike about 120 points below where the market closed on Friday. That gave her plenty of room, and her plan said she'd adjust if the market came within 100 points. Friday's close was quiet. She turned off her computer and went to her nephew's soccer game.

Over the weekend, a surprise political headline came out of Europe. By Sunday evening, when S&P futures started trading again, they were already down 30 points. Through the night, as markets in Asia and then Europe opened, they kept sliding. By the time the U.S. market opened at 9:30 Monday morning, SPX was 80 points below Friday's close.

Hannah's 120 points of room had become 40. And she hadn't been able to do a thing about it.

The market never really closes

Here's what surprises a lot of newer traders: the stock market has opening and closing hours, but the idea of the market doesn't stop at 4:00 p.m.

S&P 500 futures — contracts that track the same index — trade nearly around the clock, from Sunday evening through Friday afternoon, with only short breaks. Markets in Tokyo, Hong Kong, London, and Frankfurt open and close while most Americans are asleep. News keeps happening. Opinions keep changing. And all of it shows up in futures prices overnight.

When the U.S. market finally opens in the morning, SPX doesn't start from where it closed. It starts from wherever the world has already moved it. If that's a big jump from the previous close, it's called a gap.

Why gaps are a special kind of risk

During regular hours, a move against your position usually happens over minutes or hours. You can watch it, and your plan can respond — an adjustment at a set distance, an exit at a set price.

A gap skips all of that. The market goes straight from one price to another while you can't easily act. A rule that says "adjust at 100 points" can't fire at 100 points if the market opens at 40. You're simply there, starting the day in a worse spot than any of your rules intended.

Gaps happen most often:

  • Over weekends, because there's more time for news to pile up.

  • Around overnight economic releases in other parts of the world.

  • After big earnings reports that come out after the close.

  • Around major unexpected events — political surprises, natural disasters, sudden policy changes.

How to live with overnight risk

You can't eliminate gap risk if you hold positions overnight. But you can plan for it:

  1. Give overnight positions more room. A position that has to survive a weekend should probably have more cushion than one that's closed by 4:00 p.m.

  2. Size for the gap, not just the day. Ask yourself: "If the market opened 2% against me tomorrow, would this position be survivable?"

  3. Use defined risk. With a spread, even a big gap can only cost so much. Without one, there's no ceiling.

  4. Watch the futures if you want a preview. S&P futures in the evening and early morning give a pretty good idea of where the market is likely to open. You won't always be able to act, but you won't be surprised.

How we think about it

This is one of the trade-offs between same-day trades and longer-dated ones. A position that opens and closes on the same day never has to sit through a night. Longer positions do, which is why they're built with more room and why every one of them is a defined-risk spread with a known worst case. We'd rather give up some premium for extra cushion than wake up to a gap our rules couldn't react to.

What Hannah did

At 9:31 Monday morning, she took a breath and looked at the position fresh. SPX was 40 points from her short strike, well inside her adjustment zone. So she followed the rule as if she'd just arrived — she adjusted the position, accepted that it would be a smaller winner or a small loser, and moved on.

That afternoon, she added a line to her trading plan: Every position I hold over a weekend gets at least 150 points of room.

The takeaway: the market keeps moving when you can't trade. If a position stays on overnight, give it enough room to handle a morning surprise.

Profile picture
Simple Option StrategiesProfile picture@simpleoptionstrategies·2d
Event Risk: When the Calendar Matters

Event Risk: When the Calendar Matters

Carlos thought Wednesday would be boring. By 1:30 in the afternoon, it was.

He had a same-week credit spread on SPX, sold a comfortable distance below the market. The morning had been about as calm as markets get. SPX drifted up a few points, down a few points, and spent most of the day within a range you could have drawn with a ruler. Carlos had his lunch at his desk and barely looked at the screen.

At exactly 2:00 p.m., the Federal Reserve released its interest-rate decision.

In the next ten minutes, SPX dropped 35 points. Then it jumped 45. Then it fell again. By 2:30, it had moved more than it had in the previous two days combined. Carlos's comfortable spread suddenly looked a lot less comfortable, and he spent the last two hours of the day with his heart pounding.

He hadn't done anything wrong with the trade itself. He'd just forgotten to look at the calendar.

Some days are scheduled to be different

Most market days are a mix of random news, earnings, and general mood. But some days come with a big, known event at a known time. The most important ones for index traders include:

  • Federal Reserve announcements, usually at 2:00 p.m. Eastern, followed by a press conference.

  • Inflation reports like CPI, usually released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, before the market opens.

  • The monthly jobs report, also typically at 8:30 a.m. on the first Friday of the month.

  • Big earnings reports from the largest companies in the index, which can move the whole market.

On these days, the market often sits still beforehand, waiting. Then, when the number comes out, it reacts all at once. That's event risk: a sudden, outsized move tied to a specific, scheduled moment.

The market knows, too

Here's something useful: the options market usually sees these events coming. In the days leading up to a big announcement, option prices tend to rise because traders expect a bigger move. That means the credit for selling an option is often higher right before an event.

That higher credit isn't free money. It's the market charging extra for extra risk. If you sell premium ahead of a major announcement, you're being paid more because a big swing is genuinely more likely. Sometimes the move is smaller than expected and the seller does well. Sometimes it's bigger, and the extra premium doesn't come close to covering it.

What a calm morning hides

The trap Carlos fell into is a subtle one. On event days, the hours before the news often look unusually calm. That quiet makes positions feel safer than they really are, and it can tempt traders to sell closer to the market or trade bigger than usual.

But a quiet morning before a Fed decision isn't a sign of low risk. It's the market holding its breath.

How to plan around events

There's no single right way to handle event days, but there are a few good habits:

  1. Check the calendar every week. A free economic calendar will show you the big releases and their exact times. It takes two minutes.

  2. Know what's inside your trade's lifetime. If you sell a spread that expires Friday, look at everything scheduled between now and Friday.

  3. Decide your approach ahead of time. Some traders reduce size on event days. Some give their strikes extra room. Some simply wait until the announcement is out and the dust settles before entering. Any of these can be reasonable — the mistake is not deciding at all.

  4. Expect the first move to be unreliable. The market's first reaction to news often reverses within minutes. Decisions made in the first few seconds tend to be the worst ones of the day.

How we approach it

We pay attention to the calendar as part of every trade decision. The rules for each position — how much room it has, when it gets adjusted, when it gets closed — are set before we enter, so they don't change in a panic when a headline hits. And because we only trade defined-risk spreads, even a wild event-day swing has a ceiling on how much it can cost. That ceiling is what lets us sleep on nights before a big announcement.

What Carlos did

His spread survived. The market's swings settled down in the last hour, and the trade eventually expired worthless. But Carlos didn't feel like he'd won. He felt like he'd gotten lucky.

So he printed out the month's economic calendar and taped it next to his monitor. Every big release got a red circle. On red-circle days, he either trades smaller or waits until the news is out.

The takeaway: the market tells you in advance when some of its biggest moves might come. Check the calendar, and plan for those days before they arrive.

Profile picture
Simple Option StrategiesProfile picture@simpleoptionstrategies·3d
Fees Are Part of the Trade

Fees Are Part of the Trade

Jenna's best month of trading was also the month she learned to read her statement.

She'd been trading small credit spreads, a lot of them. The strategy was simple: collect a modest credit, take profits early, repeat. By her count, she'd closed 80 trades that month for a total profit of $2,000. She was thrilled. She told her sister. She started thinking about what she'd do with the money.

Then the monthly statement arrived. Her account was up $1,520.

Where did $480 go?

The line items nobody reads

It was all right there, in a section of the statement Jenna had never paid attention to: commissions, exchange fees, regulatory fees, clearing fees. Each one was small. A dollar here, fifty cents there, a few pennies on top. But they were charged on every contract, on every leg, every time she opened and every time she closed.

A credit spread has two legs. Opening it is two transactions; closing it is two more. In Jenna's example, all-in costs came to about $1.50 per contract per leg, so each round trip on one spread cost around $6. That doesn't sound like much until you multiply it by 80. Then it's $480 — almost a quarter of her profit.

(The exact amounts depend entirely on your broker and the product you're trading. The point isn't the specific number — it's that there is a number, and it's bigger than most people think.)

Why small trades feel it most

Here's the uncomfortable math. Fees are mostly fixed per contract. They don't shrink when your profit shrinks.

If you're aiming to make $200 on a trade, $6 in fees is 3% of your profit. Barely noticeable. If you're aiming to make $25, that same $6 is 24% of your profit. Trade enough small-target positions and you can end up working very hard mostly to pay your broker.

This is especially important for anyone who trades a lot. High-frequency, small-profit strategies can look great on paper and disappointing in real life, almost entirely because of costs that never show up in the paper version.

Fees are a cost of doing business — so treat them like one

No business ignores its expenses. A restaurant knows what it pays for ingredients, rent, and staff, and it prices its menu around them. Trading is no different. Fees aren't a surprise or a penalty. They're a known, predictable cost, and the only real mistake is leaving them out of the plan.

A few habits help:

  1. Know your all-in cost per round trip. Look at an actual statement, not the broker's advertising. Include every leg, both opening and closing.

  2. Compare it to your typical profit. If fees are eating more than about 10-15% of your average winner, the strategy may need bigger targets, fewer trades, or a different structure.

  3. Fewer, better trades usually beat more, marginal ones. Every trade has to clear the fee hurdle before it makes you anything. A trade that's only "probably okay" may not clear it.

  4. Don't let fees push you into bad habits either. Sometimes paying a fee to close a trade early is exactly right, because it removes risk you don't want. Fees are a reason to plan, not a reason to hold on to a position you'd otherwise close.

How we think about it

When we evaluate a trade, we look at what it's likely to make after the costs of getting in and out. A strategy that only works before fees doesn't really work. This is part of why we trade defined-risk spreads with meaningful credits rather than chasing tiny premiums over and over — each trade needs room to pay its own way.

It's also why we log every trade with its real numbers. If costs ever start eating more than they should, we want to see it in the records, not discover it in a statement months later.

What Jenna did

She went back through three months of statements and added up every fee. Then she looked at which trades had made the least money and realized that about a fifth of them had barely covered their own costs. She stopped taking those — the tiny-credit, "might as well" trades.

The next month, she placed 55 trades instead of 80. Her profit before fees was a little lower. Her profit after fees was higher.

The takeaway: fees are part of every trade. Know exactly what yours are, and make sure your trades are big enough to pay for themselves.

Profile picture
Simple Option StrategiesProfile picture@simpleoptionstrategies·4d
Slippage: The Cost Nobody Talks About

Slippage: The Cost Nobody Talks About

Ken's spreadsheet said he was a profitable trader. His account said he wasn't. For three months, he couldn't figure out why.

He was careful. Before every trade, he'd write down the credit he planned to collect: $2.50 for a spread, say. He'd write down his profit target and his exit plan. At the end of each trade, he'd record whether it worked. And by his spreadsheet's math, the strategy was making money.

But his account balance kept coming up short. Not by a lot on any day. Just consistently.

The missing money

One Saturday, Ken sat down with his actual trade confirmations — the records from his broker showing what each order really filled at — and compared them, line by line, to his spreadsheet.

The planned credit was $2.50. The actual fill was $2.40. Another one: planned $2.45, filled at $2.30. Another: planned to close at $0.50, actually closed at $0.62. Over and over, the real price was a little worse than the one in his plan. Usually by a dime. Sometimes by more.

That difference has a name: slippage. It's the gap between the price you expect and the price you actually get.

Where slippage comes from

Slippage isn't a scam, and it isn't a broker stealing from you. It happens for a few ordinary reasons:

  • The market moves while you're deciding. The price you saw a minute ago isn't the price now. In fast markets, a few seconds can matter.

  • You're crossing the bid-ask spread. If you use market orders, or you keep lowering your price to get filled, you give up a little of the gap between the bid and the ask every time.

  • Your size is bigger than what's on offer. If someone is only bidding for 2 contracts at the best price and you're selling 10, the rest fills at the next-best price, and the next.

  • Stop and exit orders often fill worse than their trigger. When something is moving fast enough to hit your stop, it may be moving fast enough to blow past it.

Why it's so easy to ignore

Ken's slippage was usually about $0.10 per share on each side of a trade — about $0.20 per spread, round trip. Times 100 shares per contract, times 4 contracts, that's $80 a trade.

Eighty dollars doesn't feel like much. It doesn't even feel like a loss — the trade still "worked." But Ken was placing about two trades a week. That's $640 a month. Over a year of 100 trades, it's $8,000.

For a strategy that collects premium in small, steady amounts, that can be the difference between a good year and a flat one. Ken wasn't a bad trader. He was a good trader with a leak.

How to plug the leak

You can't eliminate slippage entirely, but you can shrink it a lot:

  1. Measure it first. Most traders never check. Pull your actual fill prices and compare them to your planned prices for a month of trades. The number might surprise you.

  2. Use limit orders. A limit order puts a floor (or ceiling) on your price. You might occasionally miss a fill, but you'll never get a nasty surprise.

  3. Avoid the most chaotic moments. The first few minutes after the open, and the minutes around major announcements, tend to have the most slippage.

  4. Trade liquid products. The more buyers and sellers, the less any one order moves the price.

  5. Build it into your plan. If you know you typically lose a dime on each side, plan for it. A trade that only works if you get a perfect fill isn't a good trade.

How we approach it

We pay a lot of attention to this in our own process. Closing orders are placed at a specific, predetermined price rather than chasing the market wherever it happens to be. We'd rather occasionally wait for a fill than routinely hand over a little more than the plan allows. It's not glamorous, but small, repeated costs are exactly where good strategies quietly bleed out.

What Ken did

He added a column to his spreadsheet called "Real Fill" right next to "Planned." The first month, the gap averaged $0.20 per spread. After switching to limit orders and skipping the first few minutes of the open, it dropped to $0.06.

Same strategy, same market, same trader. About $5,600 a year he got to keep.

The takeaway: the price you planned isn't the price you got. Measure the difference, then work to shrink it — it's one of the few edges you control completely.

Profile picture
Simple Option StrategiesProfile picture@simpleoptionstrategies·5d
The Gap Between the Bid and the Ask

The Gap Between the Bid and the Ask

Rosa had done everything right. She'd picked her strike, checked the distance from the market, and decided the trade was worth taking. The screen showed the option she wanted to sell at $1.20.

She clicked "sell," chose "market order" because it was the default, and confirmed.

The order filled instantly — at $1.00.

Rosa stared at it. Twenty cents per share might not sound like much, but options cover 100 shares each, and she'd sold 5 contracts. That was $100 gone in one click, on a trade where she was hoping to make $600. She hadn't even placed a bad trade. She'd just placed a good trade badly.

Every option has two prices

What Rosa saw as "$1.20" wasn't actually a price anyone was offering. It was the midpoint — halfway between two real prices that every option has at every moment:

  • The bid: the highest price someone is currently willing to pay. If you want to sell right now, this is what you'll get.

  • The ask: the lowest price someone is currently willing to sell for. If you want to buy right now, this is what you'll pay.

The gap between them is called the bid-ask spread. On Rosa's option, the bid was $1.00 and the ask was $1.40. A market order says "fill me right now at whatever price is available" — and for a sale, the price that's available is the bid. So she got $1.00.

The person on the other side of her trade, often a market maker whose job is to stand in the middle, effectively collected that gap.

Why the gap exists

Market makers aren't villains. They're the reason you can trade at all. They're willing to buy when you want to sell and sell when you want to buy, at almost any moment of the trading day. The bid-ask spread is how they get paid for taking that risk and providing that convenience.

How wide the gap is depends mostly on how actively something trades. Very popular options, with lots of buyers and sellers, tend to have tight spreads — sometimes just a nickel or a dime. Rarely traded options can have huge ones. The gap also tends to widen when markets are moving fast, right at the open, and near big news events, because that's when market makers are taking the most risk.

How the gap adds up

One trade, $100. It's annoying but survivable. The problem is that the gap is there on every trade, both when you open and when you close. If Rosa traded like that twice a week for a year, she'd be handing over something like $10,000 just in the space between bid and ask — on top of any actual losses.

With spreads, this matters even more. A credit spread has two options, so it has two bid-ask gaps. Trade a four-leg position and you've got four. The costs stack.

How to keep more of the gap

The fix is surprisingly simple:

  1. Use limit orders. A limit order says "fill me at this price or better." Rosa could have offered to sell at $1.20, the midpoint. Often, especially in liquid products, an order near the middle gets filled within a few seconds to a few minutes.

  2. Be willing to walk the price. If the midpoint doesn't fill, nudge your limit a penny or two at a time toward the bid. You'll usually end up somewhere better than a market order would have gotten you.

  3. Trade liquid products. Some underlyings have far more trading activity than others, which keeps spreads tighter. This is one reason we trade SPX options — they're among the most actively traded options in the world.

  4. Be careful at the open. The first few minutes of the day often have the widest spreads. A little patience frequently gets a noticeably better price.

The bigger lesson

There's a pattern here that shows up all over trading: the costs that hurt most are the ones you don't see. Nobody shows the bid-ask spread on a profit chart. It doesn't feel like a loss. It just quietly makes every win a little smaller and every loss a little bigger.

The traders who last tend to sweat these small details — not because any single one is a big deal, but because they show up on every trade, forever.

What Rosa changed

She went into her platform settings and switched the default order type from "market" to "limit." It was a 20-second fix. She figured it was worth about $100 a trade.

The takeaway: the price on the screen isn't the price you'll get unless you ask for it. Use limit orders, and know both sides of the market before you click.

Profile picture
Simple Option StrategiesProfile picture@simpleoptionstrategies·Oct 30
Simple Beats Clever

Simple Beats Clever

Ethan was an engineer, and he traded like one.

His trading screen had four monitors. One showed price charts with seven different indicators layered on top: moving averages, momentum oscillators, volume bands, a custom line he'd coded himself that combined three of the others. Another monitor showed his options positions, which usually involved five or six different legs at different strikes and expirations, carefully balanced so that the overall position made money in a very specific set of scenarios.

It was beautiful. He'd spent months building it. And at the end of the year, it had made him about $40.

The experiment

What made Ethan's year interesting is that he'd accidentally run an experiment. His wife had asked him, back in January, to set up a small account for her too. She didn't want anything complicated. So Ethan gave her the simplest thing he could think of: one credit spread on SPX at a time, a set distance from the market, a set size, with a written rule for when to take profits and when to step in and manage it. No indicators. No custom lines. He spent about ten minutes a week on it.

By December, her simple account was up $880. His clever one was up $40.

Ethan did what engineers do. He went looking for the bug.

What he found

It took him a few evenings, but he found it. There wasn't one bug. There were dozens.

Every one of his indicators gave a signal now and then that conflicted with the others, and he had to decide which one to trust. Usually he trusted the one that agreed with what he already thought. His multi-leg positions had so many moving parts that when the market did something unexpected, he couldn't tell right away whether he was winning or losing, let alone what to do about it. Every complex position also meant more contracts, more fills, more slippage, and more fees — small costs that piled up quietly all year.

Worst of all, the complexity made every decision a judgment call. Some months his judgment was great. Some months it wasn't. You can see it in the orange line on the chart: big up months, big down months, and almost nothing to show for it in the end.

His wife's account had none of that. There was only one decision, and the rule already made it.

Why simple works better than it should

Complexity feels like an edge. If a strategy is hard to understand, it seems like it must be sophisticated, and sophisticated seems like it must be better. But in trading, complexity tends to add three things, and none of them help:

  1. More ways to be wrong. Every extra indicator or leg is another assumption that has to hold up. The more assumptions, the more likely one of them breaks.

  2. More room for your own bias. When the rules are fuzzy, you fill the gaps with feelings — and feelings are at their worst when money is moving.

  3. More friction. More legs means more commissions and wider combined bid-ask costs, every single time.

A simple strategy, on the other hand, is something you can actually follow, especially on a bad day. And a strategy you follow consistently will beat a brilliant one you only follow when you feel like it.

What "simple" doesn't mean

Simple isn't the same as careless. Ethan's wife's account had clear rules about size, about distance from the market, about when to take profits and when to adjust. The thinking was done up front. It just didn't need to be redone every day.

That's how we try to approach our own trading. We don't use a wall of indicators, and we don't build trades that need a diagram to explain. We sell defined-risk credit spreads, we know the maximum loss before we enter, and the rules for managing them are written down in plain language. The goal is a process someone could explain to a friend in a few minutes — and follow on their worst day.

What Ethan did

He didn't quit coding. He just pointed it at something different. Instead of building more indicators, he wrote a little program that checked his wife's simple account every morning and told him whether any of the rules needed attention. Most days, it said nothing.

Then he moved his own money into the same strategy and turned off three of the four monitors.

The takeaway: a strategy only works if you can follow it. The simpler the rules, the more likely you'll follow them when it counts.

Profile picture
Simple Option StrategiesProfile picture@simpleoptionstrategies·Oct 29
The Money Is Already Gone

The Money Is Already Gone

Priya had a rule for her car. If a repair cost more than the car was worth, she'd stop fixing it. It was a good rule. She never followed it.

Her old sedan had needed a transmission, then brakes, then a new radiator, and every time she'd said the same thing: "I've already put so much into it." By the time it finally died in a parking lot, she'd spent more on it in two years than it would have cost to buy something reliable.

She didn't realize she was about to do the exact same thing with a trade.

The trade

On Monday, Priya sold a call spread on SPX for $2.50 per contract. The spread was 25 points wide, so the most she could lose, if the market ran straight through both strikes, was $2,250 per contract. The most she could make was the $250 she collected up front.

By Thursday, the market had rallied hard. The spread that she sold for $2.50 now cost $8.50 to buy back. If she closed it, she'd lock in a $600 loss.

Six hundred dollars. Priya looked at that number for a long time. "I can't close it now," she told herself. "I'd be throwing away $600."

The question she was really answering

Here's the thing about that $600: it was already gone.

Whether Priya closed the trade or held it, she was down $600 on Thursday morning. That wasn't a decision anymore. It was a fact. The only decision in front of her was about what happened next — and the $600 had nothing to say about that.

Economists call this the sunk cost fallacy. Money, time, or effort that's already spent and can't be recovered is "sunk." The fallacy is letting sunk costs drive future choices. It's why people finish movies they hate because they paid for the ticket, and why Priya kept fixing a car that had stopped making sense.

Look at the chart above. Priya's real choices on Thursday were these:

  • Close now: take a $600 loss and move on.

  • Hold, and the market comes back: best case, the spread expires worthless and she keeps the full $250.

  • Hold, and the market keeps going: worst case, she loses $2,250.

The right answer depended on where the market was, how much time was left, and what her plan said. It did not depend on the $600. That number sits underneath every one of the choices equally. It can't make one of them better than another.

Why it feels so different from the inside

If sunk costs are so obviously irrelevant, why does almost everyone fall for them?

Partly because closing a losing trade turns a paper loss into a real one, and that feels like admitting a mistake. As long as the trade is open, there's hope. Closing it ends the story with us on the losing side.

And partly because our brains keep score in a strange way. Losing $600 by choosing to close feels much worse than losing $600 by letting the market do it. One feels like our fault. The other feels like bad luck. So we hold on, and we let the market make the decision for us — often at a worse price.

The fresh-eyes test

There's a simple question that cuts through all of it:

If I had no position right now, would I open this exact trade, at this price, today?

On Thursday, the answer for Priya was clearly no. Nobody looking at that chart fresh would sell a call spread with the market charging right into it. Which meant the only reason she was still holding was the $600 — and the $600 was the one thing that couldn't be changed.

How we think about it

This is one reason we decide our exits before we enter. When the plan for a losing trade is written down ahead of time — an exit level, or a rule to adjust the position at a certain distance — there's no Thursday-morning debate. Nobody has to stare at a red number and decide how they feel about it. The plan already made the call, back when the money wasn't on the line.

Losses that are handled by the plan stay small. Losses that are handled by hope have a way of growing.

What Priya did

She closed the trade. It stung. Over the next week, the market kept climbing, and the spread would have hit its maximum loss.

That evening she thought about the old sedan, and wrote a new rule on the inside cover of her trading notebook: Ask what to do next. Not what it cost to get here.

The takeaway: money you've already lost can't vote on your next decision. Decide what to do from here, as if you'd just walked in.

Profile picture
Simple Option StrategiesProfile picture@simpleoptionstrategies·Oct 28
Yesterday Isn't a Forecast

Yesterday Isn't a Forecast

Marcus kept a notebook. He'd started it to get more disciplined, and in a way it worked — it just taught him the opposite lesson from the one he expected.

It was early spring, and the market had gone up three days in a row. Not big moves, but steady ones. Marcus was sure he saw a pattern. "When it gets going like this," he told a friend, "it keeps going." On the fourth morning, he skipped his usual plan and placed a bigger, more one-sided trade, betting the run would continue.

The market dropped 40 points before lunch.

That night, annoyed, he flipped back through his notebook. He'd been writing down market moves for almost a year. And on a whim, he did something he'd never done before: he went through and found every time the market had gone up three days in a row, then looked at what happened on the fourth.

There were 20 of them. Eleven times the market went up the next day. Nine times it went down.

Marcus stared at it. Eleven and nine. That wasn't a pattern. That was a coin flip with a little extra weight on it — the kind of slight upward tilt the market has over most stretches of time anyway. Three up days hadn't told him anything about the fourth.

Why the brain loves recent history

Our brains are pattern-finding machines. That's a gift most of the time. It's how we learn which foods make us sick and which roads have traffic at 5 p.m. But markets are noisy, and a pattern-finding machine pointed at noise will find patterns that aren't there.

The most powerful of these is what researchers call recency bias — giving too much weight to what just happened. A few strong days and the market feels unstoppable. A few weak days and it feels like it's breaking. The last thing we saw becomes the thing we expect to see next.

But the market doesn't remember yesterday the way we do. Thousands of buyers and sellers show up every morning with new information, new orders, new reasons. Yesterday's move is already in the price. It doesn't push today in any particular direction.

The two ways it costs you

Recency bias tends to hurt in two ways.

First, it makes you change your plan based on a few days of evidence. Marcus didn't just have an opinion — he acted on it, with a bigger and more lopsided trade than his rules allowed. A plan built on months of thinking got thrown out because of 72 hours.

Second, it makes you too confident at exactly the wrong time. After a run of calm, up days, it feels safe to sell options closer to the market or trade a little bigger. After a sharp drop, it feels dangerous to trade at all. Both feelings come from the last few days, and neither one is a measurement of actual risk.

What to look at instead

The way out isn't to ignore what the market did. It's to look at the right things and at the right time scale.

  • Volatility, not direction. A string of up days tells you little about tomorrow's direction. But how much the market has been moving — how big the daily swings have been — does tell you something useful about how much room a trade needs.

  • Your rules, not your read. If your plan says sell a spread a certain distance away, at a certain credit, that plan already accounts for the market going either way. That's the point of it.

  • A big sample, not a small one. Marcus's notebook only became useful when he looked at 20 cases instead of one. If you think you see a pattern, write it down and test it before you trade it.

How this fits the way we trade

A big reason we sell credit spreads instead of betting on direction is that we don't think anyone — us included — can reliably call the next day's move. We set up trades that can win if the market goes up a little, sideways, or even down a little. We don't need yesterday to repeat itself, and we don't need to guess whether it will.

That's freeing, actually. You don't have to have an opinion about whether three up days means a fourth.

What Marcus changed

He kept the notebook, but he added a page at the front titled "Patterns I Thought I Saw." Every time he felt sure about what the market would do next, he wrote it down instead of trading it. A month later he'd go back and check.

The page filled up fast. The hit rate hovered around half.

The takeaway: yesterday is already in today's price. Trade your plan, not your memory of the last three days.

Profile picture
Al LosadaProfile picture@allosada·Oct 27
Seeing What You Want to See

Seeing What You Want to See

Lisa had a ritual. Every morning before work, she poured a coffee, opened her trading account, and then opened the news.

She had sold a put spread on SPX a week earlier, with her short strike 150 points below the market. It was a good trade when she placed it. Plenty of room, a fair credit, a clear plan. The plan even had a rule written on a sticky note on her monitor: If SPX gets within 100 points of the short strike, act.

Then the market started to slip.

The first day it fell 12 points, Lisa found an article titled "Why This Dip Is a Buying Opportunity." She read every word. The next day it fell another 17, and she found a strategist on TV saying the economy was stronger than people thought. She watched the whole clip twice.

There were other headlines too. A story about slowing earnings. A chart showing the market had broken below a level it had held all month. Lisa saw them. She just didn't click on them. They felt like noise. The bullish stories felt like information.

By the following Tuesday, SPX was 84 points above her short strike. The sticky note said act at 100. Lisa read three more articles that morning about why the selling was almost over, and did nothing.

What was happening in Lisa's head

Lisa wasn't foolish. She was doing what every human brain does once it has made a commitment: looking for proof that the commitment was right.

Psychologists call this confirmation bias. Once we hold a position — in the market, in an argument, in an opinion about a restaurant — we notice the evidence that supports it and quietly brush off the evidence that doesn't. A headline that agrees with us feels important. One that disagrees feels like somebody who doesn't understand the situation.

Here's the thing Lisa missed: none of those articles changed the odds of her trade. Not the bullish ones, not the bearish ones. The only fact that mattered was sitting right there on her screen. SPX was getting closer to her strike every day, and her own rule had already told her what to do about it.

The news made her feel better. It didn't make her safer.

Why it's so hard to catch

Confirmation bias doesn't feel like bias. It feels like research. Lisa wasn't ignoring her position — she was reading about the market every single morning. She would have told you she was being diligent.

That's what makes it dangerous. The more you read, the more material your brain has to cherry-pick from. Someone, somewhere, is always making the case for exactly what you want to happen. If you go looking for that person, you'll find them every time.

What a rule does that a feeling can't

The sticky note on Lisa's monitor was the most valuable thing on her desk. She wrote it on a calm day, before the trade was on, when she had no reason to fool herself. That's exactly when good rules get made.

A rule doesn't read the news. It doesn't care how persuasive the strategist on TV was. It looks at one thing — how far the market is from the strike — and gives you an answer.

This is why we manage our longer-dated positions by distance, not by opinion. When the market gets within a set number of points of a short strike, the position gets adjusted. We don't wait for a headline to tell us it's okay. We don't wait for the market to "prove" itself. The distance is the signal.

How to catch yourself

A few habits help:

  1. Write the rule before the trade. Your judgment is best before you have money on the line. Use that version of you to make decisions for the later version.

  2. Read the other side on purpose. If you're short puts, go find the most convincing bearish argument you can. If it doesn't change anything, fine. But you should know what it says.

  3. Ask the honest question. "If I didn't have this trade on, would I open it right now, here?" If the answer is no, you're holding it for reasons that aren't about the market.

What happened to Lisa

Two days later, SPX dropped another 30 points in a morning. Lisa finally adjusted — at a worse price, with less time, and a lot more stress than if she'd followed the note the week before. The trade ended up as a modest loss. It could have been a small one.

She kept the sticky note. She added a second line underneath: The news doesn't get a vote.

The takeaway: once you're in a trade, your brain becomes its lawyer. Set your rules before you're in, and let them be the judge.

Profile picture
Christina Battell@christinabattell·Oct 27

👍❤️

Profile picture
Simple Option StrategiesProfile picture@simpleoptionstrategies·Oct 26
Averaging Down: Doubling a Mistake

When a trade moves against you, adding more at a "better price" can feel smart. Usually it just makes a losing position bigger.

Averaging down turns one decision into two, and the second one gets made under pressure, when judgment is at its worst.

The original plan set a size for a reason. Adding to a loser quietly throws that plan away and replaces it with hope.

If the trade no longer makes sense, the answer is to manage it or close it — not to double the bet that it'll come back.