Space Bounty Sports

New feature: Moneyball v2.1 now calculates Model Edge against Kalshi prediction markets by converting live orderbook contract prices directly into market-implied probabilities. The model then compares these live market implied probabilities directly against its own 10,000-trial physics simulation probabilities. The resulting Model Edge % highlights the exact mathematical expected value (+EV) or percentage edge Moneyball holds over the Kalshi orderbook consensus, allowing bettors to instantly spot mispriced prediction market contracts.

Tier 2 dominated yesterday's slate!

MODEL ACCURACY REPORT (2026-09-04) [TIER ACCURACY RATES] - Tier 1: 8.3% (2.4x MLB baseline — Colson Montgomery #11) - Tier 2: 31.3% (8.9x MLB baseline — Miguel Vargas, Vinnie Pasquantino, Rafael Devers, Bobby Witt Jr., Cal Raleigh, Francisco Lindor, Max Muncy, Spencer Torkelson, Zack Gelof, Mickey Gasper) - Tiers 1 & 2 Combined: 25.0% (1 in every 4 top picks homered — 7.1x MLB baseline) - Tier 3: 8.3% (2.4x MLB baseline — Eugenio Suárez, Josh Bell, Iván Herrera, Ben Rice) - Tier 4: 10.9% (3.1x MLB baseline — 12 HRs from 10 power/value bats including Francisco Alvarez 2HR, Brayan Rocchio 2HR) - Tier 5: 9.3% (2.6x MLB baseline — 10 HRs from deep power bats including Michael Busch, Braden Montgomery, Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette) [SIGNAL & BADGE ACCURACY RATES] - Blowup / Pitcher Vulnerability: 87.5% (35 of 40 HRs hit off target blowup starters or fatigued bullpens) - Power Baseline (EV90 ≥ 94mph / Bat Speed ≥ 74mph): 82.5% (33 of 40 HR hitters held elite hard-hit profiles) - Arsenal Damage / Elite Pitch Mix: 77.5% (31 of 40 HRs hit by batters with ≥42% DMG or Fav/Elite mix) - Positive Pull Tailwind Vectors (≥+2mph out): 70.0% (28 of 40 HRs)

Small slate today, only 16 home runs total, but the model still performed!

MODEL ACCURACY REPORT (2026-09-03) [TIER ACCURACY RATES] - Tier 1: 16.7% (4.8x MLB baseline — Pete Crow-Armstrong #2) - Tier 2: 7.1% (2.0x MLB baseline — Carter Jensen) - Tiers 1 & 2 Combined: 10.0% (1 in every 10 top picks homered — 2.9x MLB baseline) - Tier 3: 19.2% (5.5x MLB baseline — Zack Gelof 💎, Roman Anthony 👑, Christian Encarnacion-Strand 🚀, Agustín Ramírez 🚀, Heriberto Hernández 👑) - Tier 4: 2.8% (0.8x MLB baseline — Pete Alonso, Andrew Vaughn) - Tier 5: 5.4% (1.5x MLB baseline — 6 HRs from deep power bats including Adley Rutschman 2HR, Nick Sogard, Jose Altuve, Corey Seager, Luis Robert Jr., Donovan Walton) [SIGNAL & BADGE ACCURACY RATES] - Blowup / Pitcher Vulnerability: 81.3% (13 of 16 HRs hit off target blowup starters or fatigued bullpens) - Power Baseline (EV90 ≥ 94mph / Bat Speed ≥ 74mph): 87.5% (14 of 16 HR hitters held elite hard-hit profiles) - Arsenal Damage / Elite Pitch Mix: 75.0% (12 of 16 HRs hit by batters with ≥42% DMG or Fav/Elite mix) - Positive Pull Tailwind Vectors (≥+2mph out): 62.5% (10 of 16 HRs hit in wind-boosted conditions)

MODEL ACCURACY REPORT (2026-08-30) [MONEYLINE ACCURACY RATES] - Overall Moneyline: 71.4% (10 of 14 Games Won — +3.42u net profit — PHI ML -161, LAD ML -146, BAL ML -147, ATL ML -235, CLE ML -174, PIT ML -119, MIN ML -113, TB ML -153, MIA ML +108, HOU ML +114) - High-Edge Best Bets: 66.7% (6 of 9 Won — +1.85u net profit) - Value Dog of the Day: 100.0% (Houston Astros ML +114 outright winner @ NYM) [RUN LINE ACCURACY RATES] - Overall Run Line (+/- 1.5): 57.1% (8 of 14 Games Covered — +1.18u net profit — PHI -1.5, LAD -1.5, BAL -1.5, HOU +1.5, NYY +1.5, SD +1.5, MIN +1.5, CIN +1.5) - Plus-Money / Best Bet Run Lines: 50.0% (2 of 4 Best Bets Covered — PHI -1.5, HOU +1.5) [GAME TOTALS ACCURACY RATES] - Over/Under Totals: 50.0% (6 of 12 Graded Totals Hit — 6 Over Hits: BOS/NYY 17 runs, BAL/ATH 13 runs, KC/CLE 12 runs, CIN/CHC 12 runs, TEX/MIL 11 runs, PIT/STL 9 runs — 2 Games Passed: SD/TB & HOU/NYM) [COMPOSITE SLATE SCORE] - Top Edge Slate Recommendations: 75.0% (9 of 12 Top Edges Hit)

MODEL ACCURACY REPORT (2026-08-30) [TIER ACCURACY RATES] - Tier 1: 33.3% (9.5x MLB baseline — Pete Crow-Armstrong 2HR #8, Sal Stewart #6, Coby Mayo #7, Esmerlyn Valdez #12) - Tier 2: 11.1% (3.2x MLB baseline — Junior Caminero #14, Juan Soto, Kazuma Okamoto) - Tiers 1 & 2 Combined: 17.9% (1 in every 5.5 top picks homered — 5.1x MLB baseline) - Tier 3: 17.4% (5.0x MLB baseline — Gunnar Henderson 2HR, Francisco Lindor, Joc Pederson, Tyler Stephenson, Sean Murphy, Jared Triolo, Brian Serven, Héctor Rodríguez) - Tier 4: 8.0% (2.3x MLB baseline — 7 HRs from power/value bats including J.T. Realmuto, Nathaniel Lowe, Edmundo Sosa, Gary Sánchez, Paul Goldschmidt, Jeremy Peña, Teoscar Hernández) - Tier 5: 9.2% (2.6x MLB baseline — 13 HRs from deep power/lottery bats including Austin Wells 2HR, Dane Myers, Ezequiel Duran, Alejandro Kirk, José Ramírez, Jonny DeLuca, Jake McCarthy, Heliot Ramos, Luke Keaschall, José Caballero, Otto Lopez, LaMonte Wade Jr.) [SIGNAL & BADGE ACCURACY RATES] - Blowup / Pitcher Vulnerability: 86.5% (32 of 37 HRs hit off target blowup starters or fatigued bullpens) - Power Baseline (EV90 ≥ 94mph / Barrel ≥ 10% / Hard Hit ≥ 38%): 83.8% (31 of 37 HR hitters held elite hard-hit profiles) - Arsenal Damage / Elite Pitch Mix: 81.1% (30 of 37 HRs hit by batters with ≥42% DMG or Fav/Elite pitch mix) - Positive Pull Tailwind & Environmental Boost (Env Δ > 0% / Wind Out): 75.7% (28 of 37 HRs)

GAME ML, RL & TOTALS ACCURACY REPORT (2026-08-25) [GAME MODEL PERFORMANCE] - Moneyline (ML): 40.0% (6 of 15 Games — Outright Underdog Hits: Royals +116, Pirates +115; Favorite Hits: Red Sox -144, Guardians -142, Orioles -111, Giants -106) - Run Line (+1.5 Spread Covers): 73.3% (11 of 15 Games — Covered 1.5 spread threshold across underdog matchups) - Over/Under (Totals): 53.3% (8 of 15 Games — Correctly projected High-Scoring Overs on TEX@CWS 18, BAL@STL 14, CLE@LAA 14, BOS@MIA 10 & Pitching Unders on MIN@ATH 6, PHI@SEA 5, KC@TOR 8) [SIMULATION ENGINE ACCURACY RATES] - Pitcher Factor Alignment (xERA / TTO Vulnerability): 80.0% (12 of 15 games aligned with starting pitcher ERA/xERA regression vectors) - Park Factor Impact (Dome / Weather Adjustments): 73.3% (11 of 15 game totals aligned with stadium environment deltas) - Bullpen Rating Impact (Pen Q50-Q100): 66.7% (10 of 15 games decided in late-inning bullpen leverage situations)

MODEL ACCURACY REPORT (2026-08-25) [TIER ACCURACY RATES] - Tier 1: 25.0% (7.1x MLB baseline — Pete Alonso #3, Rafael Devers #2, Cal Raleigh #7) - Tier 2: 15.4% (4.4x MLB baseline — Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Daylen Lile, Luis Robert Jr., Jake Burger) - Tiers 1 & 2 Combined: 18.4% (1 in every 5.4 top picks homered — 5.3x MLB baseline) - Tier 3: 14.3% (4.1x MLB baseline — Oneil Cruz, Francisco Lindor, Hunter Goodman, Justin Foscue, Tristan Peters, Sal Stewart) - Tier 4: 11.9% (3.4x MLB baseline — 10 HRs from 8 power/value bats including Vaughn Grissom 2HR, Mickey Gasper 2HR) - Tier 5: 5.1% (1.5x MLB baseline — 7 HRs from deep power bats including Yainer Diaz 2HR, Jarren Duran, Danny Jansen, Cody Bellinger, Carlos Cortes, Max Clark) [SIGNAL & BADGE ACCURACY RATES] - Blowup / Pitcher Vulnerability: 88.9% (24 of 27 HRs hit off target blowup starters or fatigued bullpens) - Power Baseline (EV90 ≥ 94mph / Bat Speed ≥ 74mph): 81.5% (22 of 27 HR hitters held elite hard-hit profiles) - Arsenal Damage / Elite Pitch Mix: 77.8% (21 of 27 HRs hit by batters with ≥42% DMG or Fav/Elite mix) - Positive Pull Tailwind Vectors (≥+2mph out): 66.7% (18 of 27 HRs)

Sneak peak of the new re-design, new logo, and some of the app features. The front end is still a work in progress.

I've been working on improving the front end web ui and player cards.

MODEL ACCURACY REPORT (2026-08-23) [MONEYLINE ACCURACY RATES] - Overall ML: 73.3% (11 of 15 games — +2.53u net profit) - Starred 3-Star Best Bets (Edge ≥ 8.0%): 83.3% (5 of 6 wins — TB ML +101 #1, NYY ML -122 #2, MIA ML -158 #3, TEX ML -154 #4, CLE ML -158 #5 — +2.93u net profit) - Home Team ML: 70.0% (7 of 10 wins) - Away Team ML: 80.0% (4 of 5 wins) [RUN LINE ACCURACY RATES] - Overall RL (+/- 1.5): 53.3% (8 of 15 games — +1.28u net profit) - 3-Star Best Bet RLs: 57.1% (4 of 7 wins — TB -1.5 +153, NYY -1.5 +162, MIA -1.5 +130, ATH +1.5 -136) - Cover Margin: +2.4 avg run cover margin on winning RL picks [TOTALS O/U ACCURACY RATES] - Over/Under Totals: 45.5% (5 Wins, 6 Losses, 2 Pushes) - Over Picks Accuracy: 54.5% (5 of 9 Overs hit — TOR/NYY Over 8 [11 runs], STL/PHI Over 8 [10 runs], ATH/HOU Over 8.5 [13 runs], CHC/SEA Over 7.5 [21 runs]) - Push Rate: 15.4% (2 of 13 Totals pushed on 8.0 — WSH/MIA 8, LAA/TEX 8) [SIMULATION & DIVERGENCE ACCURACY] - Monte Carlo 10,000-Trial Sim Accuracy: 86.7% (13 of 15 game score differentials fell within ±1.5 runs of sim projection) - High Divergence Plays (Edge ≥ 10.0%): 100.0% Win Rate (3 of 3 — MIA ML -158 [+15.2% Edge], TEX ML -154 [+14.6% Edge], NYY ML -122 [+12.4% Edge])