The Trading Orbit 🚀🌖

🚨 $INFQ Macro Thesis: The Time & Value Sniper Setup 🚨

Wall Street is currently throwing $21 price targets at $INFQ, but our structural analysis suggests they may be missing the bigger picture.

Here’s the blueprint for how we’re looking at the deep-tech quantum cycle over the next 4 years:

📉 THE TRAP — Now to March 2027

Currently sitting around $12.13, $INFQ could remain dead money in the near term. Our EV model suggests we’re still stuck in the “Fundamental Grind.”

The biggest risks are the SPAC dilution overhang and a potential required capital raise by mid-2027.

Our approach: Don’t buy the current dip. Let the market absorb the cash burn and dilution risk first.

🎯 THE ENTRY — The Sniper Zone | March ’27 – Nov ’27

Between Fib 13 and Fib 21, we expect the potential capital raise to create maximum fear and dilution pressure.

Our Monte Carlo model targets a possible capitulation zone around:

🎯 $8.90 – $10.00

This 8-month window is where we would look to aggressively accumulate if the thesis continues to play out.

We’re waiting to buy max fear — not chasing today.

🚀 THE RE-RATING — Nov ’27 – Dec ’28

By Fib 21 (Nov ’27), the balance sheet could be repaired and the market may begin front-running the major 2028 DARPA/NVIDIA software catalysts.

If $INFQ successfully pivots from lower-margin hardware toward higher-margin software, we could see a significant multiple re-rating.

Targets from our planned entry zone:

🔹 T1 — Sell 30%: $20.78 | +71%

🔹 T2 — Sell 40%: $25.23 | +108%

🛸 THE MOONSHOT RUNNER — 2030+

The final 30% stays as a long-term runner with a trailing stop.

If the company successfully reaches 50+ Logical Qubits by 2030, the Fib 34–55 expansion opens the door toward:

🎯 $28.38+ | +134%

TL;DR: We’re avoiding $INFQ at current levels. The plan is to stay patient, let the potential 2027 capital raise wash out weak hands, look to accumulate around $9–$10, and position for the potential 2028 software re-rating.

Time the value. Don’t chase the story. 🎯

$CRM 200C 8/21 Trade Recap 📈

This is how D and Pump analyzed $CRM last week and executed the trade on Thursday.

They waited for the setup, followed the plan, and let price come to them. No chasing, just disciplined execution.

Those who left runners and held overnight were rewarded with 100%+ gains. 🚀

This is exactly what TTO is about: plan first, execute second.

🌾 $ADM — Archer-Daniels-Midland | Asymmetric Turnaround Thesis

ADM is the invisible giant of the global food supply chain, buying raw crops like corn and soybeans and processing them into key ingredients, animal feeds, and biofuels used in everyday supermarket products.

📈 Bull Thesis

The opportunity lies in buying this essential company at a bargain price following a recent accounting scandal that is now settled.

The scandal discount continues to weigh on the stock even as the operational and legal risks have largely faded, creating an attractive setup where downside appears limited relative to the potential upside.

🎯 The Most Probable Path

The stock is most likely to climb toward:

🟢 $103 by late 2026 — +29%

🟢 $142 by 2027 — +78%

🚀 $159 by 2028 — +98% Bull Case

The potential recovery is supported by several catalysts:

🌾 Crop-Processing Recovery — A recovery in ADM’s core crop-processing profits could drive earnings higher.

🥗 Plant Protein Demand — Food companies buying more plant proteins to serve changing consumer diets, including demand tied to the growing adoption of weight-loss drugs.

🇪🇺 European Regulation — Strict new European shipping rules could create additional barriers for smaller competitors and strengthen ADM’s competitive positioning.

💰 Risk / Reward Profile

🔴 Downside Risk: -15%

Bear floor near $68, around tangible book value / scandal-low territory.

🟢 2026 Base Case: +29%

$103 target — ~2:1 Reward-to-Risk

🟢 2027 Base Case: +78%

$142 target — ~5:1 Reward-to-Risk

🚀 2028 Bull Case: +98%

$159 target — ~6.5:1 Reward-to-Risk

🛡️ Downside Protection

ADM has hard-asset backing and 51 consecutive years of dividend increases, with an approximately 40% payout ratio, providing additional support to the long-term thesis.

🌾 The Bottom Line

ADM represents a classic asymmetric turnaround: a market leader whose scandal discount persists even after much of the operational and legal uncertainty has faded.

With stacked catalysts driving a potential earnings recovery and a roughly 5:1 reward-to-risk profile through 2027, ADM offers compelling risk-adjusted value.

Every $1 of downside risk is balanced by roughly $5 of base-case upside through 2027. 🌾📈

📊 Wall Street Updates: $FSLR + SpaceX

☀️ First Solar ($FSLR) — Baird Upgrades to Outperform

Baird upgrades First Solar $FSLR to Outperform, raising its price target to $318 from $205.

Baird cites a strong utility-scale solar market, removal of the Section 232 overhang, better-calibrated estimates, and potential clarity on capital allocation.

The firm says the 232 resolution should help restart bookings for 2029–2030, potentially at higher ASPs.

⸻

🚀 SpaceX — Morgan Stanley Maintains $300 Target, $600 Bull Case

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas keeps his SpaceX target at $300, with a $600 bull case, and says Cursor could become a major part of the upside case as SpaceX builds a broader AI platform.

“Cursor’s journey from ‘harness’ to ‘frontier’ model may be a major factor bridging the 330% upside to our $600/share bull case.”

Jonas sees the combined platform extending well beyond coding:

🤖 Grok — Intelligence layer

📡 X — Real-time data

🖥️ SpaceXAI — Compute

🛰️ Starlink — Connectivity

🚗 Tesla — Potential path into physical AI

“As code generation becomes more commoditized, we think value may accrue to the layer that owns the data and deployment, which is where Cursor sits today.”

Morgan Stanley estimates Cursor ARR could reach $8B by year-end and ~$33B by 2030, while noting that its $33B estimate does not assume any upside from the broader SpaceX ecosystem.

Jonas also says very few investors he speaks with are bullish on SpaceX’s AI business beyond neocloud, leaving what he sees as an “upside skewed catalyst path” as more details emerge around Cursor, Grok, and future model releases.

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📊 $MITK 8/6 Post-ER Review

Result: A Bullish Plot Twist 🟢

1. AI Cost Squeeze — Wrong (In a Good Way)

The concern was that building AI security tools would become expensive and eat into profitability. Instead, overall spending actually declined slightly while revenue grew 18%, keeping margins strong. Rather than AI R&D draining cash, disciplined spending helped expand non-GAAP gross margins.

2. Slowing Identity Fraud Growth — Investors Didn’t Mind

Identity security sales did slow compared to last quarter. However, investors focused on the 36% YoY growth in total software subscription revenue, showing that MITK’s subscription model continues to scale.

3. Dying Check Business — Wrong (AI Saved It)

The legacy check-processing business didn’t shrink — it surged 24%. By integrating new AI-powered fraud protection into its existing products, MITK secured adoption from a top-5 U.S. bank and other major financial partners.

The supposed “dying legacy” business may actually be becoming an AI Trojan Horse, giving MITK an established distribution channel for its newer fraud-prevention technology.

4. Stock Buybacks — Forgiven (Market Preferred a Cash Fortress)

Instead of aggressively buying back shares, management added $25 million in fresh cash to the balance sheet. That strengthens MITK’s financial position and gives the company more flexibility to fund future AI growth, pursue strategic opportunities, or deploy capital when the timing is right.

🚀 Bottom Line:

The quarter challenged several parts of the bearish thesis. AI investment hasn’t crushed margins, subscription revenue continues to scale, and the legacy check business is showing unexpected strength as AI fraud protection creates new opportunities.

What looked like potential weaknesses going into earnings may actually be turning into strengths for the broader MITK story.

📈 $MU Trade Recap

MoonWalker and Pumpdae both traded $MU today and executed the setup beautifully.

Moon caught the move first, entering near the bottom and taking a quick scalp. Later, Pump identified a bull schematic forming, waited patiently for the retracement, and entered as price pulled back into his planned area.

Check out the video below to see exactly how Pump read the setup, timed his entry, and managed the trade from start to finish.

Preparation. Patience. Execution. 🚀🌕

📈 $NVDA Trade Recap

This is how Pump played $NVDA using HeastSeeker.

He entered calls before Tuesday’s market close, positioning ahead of the move. By the next morning, those contracts had exploded for up to 600% overnight. 🚀🌕

📊 $OSS Post-Earnings Review

One Stop Systems delivered a strong quarter, growing revenue to $9.35 million, achieving record new orders, and raising its full-year revenue outlook.

The weak headline earnings were largely driven by a one-time legal settlement and temporary margin pressure as newly awarded contracts begin ramping into production. These factors weighed on reported profits but do not reflect a deterioration in the underlying business.

The market’s pullback into the $13 range appears to be pricing in a non-recurring expense while overlooking a company that is fundamentally stronger than it was just one quarter ago, when shares traded around $15.

Bottom line: The long-term thesis remains intact. Revenue growth is accelerating, demand continues to strengthen through record bookings, and the recent weakness appears to be driven by temporary factors rather than a change in the company’s underlying fundamentals. 🚀🌕

📊 $MITK Earnings Preview

Mitek is in the middle of transforming from a legacy mobile check deposit company into an AI-powered identity verification and cybersecurity platform.

🤖 AI Identity Business Replacing Legacy Business (85% Probability)

The key question is whether Mitek’s AI identity segment can continue growing fast enough to offset the decline in its legacy check deposit business.

Last quarter, total revenue still increased—showing that the AI business is already generating more revenue than the legacy segment is losing. As Identity becomes the majority of the business, it should become the primary growth engine going forward.

The biggest metric to watch is Identity revenue growth. If growth remains in the mid-to-high 20% range, the long-term bull thesis remains intact and the stock could see a meaningful re-rating.

💰 Development Costs Under Control (30% Probability)

The challenge is profitability.

Mitek is competing against increasingly sophisticated AI-driven fraud, forcing the company to invest heavily in AI talent, cloud infrastructure, and computing power. While these investments strengthen the platform, they also pressure margins.

If management demonstrates that spending is becoming more disciplined without slowing Identity growth, investor confidence should improve. However, another quarter of margin compression would likely weigh on the stock despite solid revenue growth.

Bottom line: This quarter is less about headline earnings and more about whether AI Identity continues becoming the dominant growth engine while margins begin stabilizing. If both happen, the long-term thesis strengthens considerably. 🚀🌕