The Trading Orbit 🚀🌖

🔔 Last 2 Hours (2–4 PM): What Big Money Did Into the Close · Fri Oct 16

SPY fell about 1.3% today (open ~$773, low $760.68). Only trades that look like real bets are shown. Spreads, multi-leg trades and deep in-the-money trades are filtered out.

⚖️ SPX — big money hedged BOTH ways into the weekend

Bullish: $25M of Dec $7,600 calls and $12.6M of Nov $7,775 calls bought (2:16–3:14 PM).

Bearish: about $16M of Monday/Tuesday $7,540–7,550 puts and $12.5M of Dec $7,700 puts bought.

SPX closed ~$7,661. Big funds protected both sides. No clean direction, but expect a volatile Monday.

🟢 SPY — dip buyers showed up late

After heavy put buying at 1 PM ($38.7M puts vs $11.3M calls in that hour), the tone shifted. 2–4 PM saw $25.3M of calls bought vs $11.8M sold, led by $5M of March $770 calls.

SPY closed ~$763.50.

Watch: back above $769 and the dip buyers are right. Below $760 (today's low) and the morning put buyers win.

🔴 AMD — puts after yesterday's long-term calls

$11.5M of puts bought (2:28–3:51 PM), the biggest being $3.9M of Feb $540 puts plus Jan $500–530 puts.

AMD closed ~$529. Yesterday someone bought $11M of Jan 2028 calls, so this may be a hedge on those. Below $520 the put buyers are winning.

🟢 Single big call bets

SIMO: one $4.65M buy of Dec $250 calls (stock ~$213, needs a 17% rally).

SPCX: $3M of next Friday's $146 calls plus $1.2M of $144 calls. Closed ~$146, so it needs to hold $144.

TQQQ: $3.9M of Jan $87 calls (a leveraged bet on a Nasdaq rebound).

DELL: $2M of Jan $500 calls · MSFT: $2.1M of Nov $530 calls.

🛡️ Protection buyers

HYG (junk bonds) $2.1M of puts, a credit-stress hedge. SMH $3M of Dec $540 puts. PLTR $2.75M of Sep '27 $175 puts. Volatility hedges in UVXY / VXX calls.

These are mostly insurance, not bets on a crash.

🚨 $INFQ Macro Thesis: The Time & Value Sniper Setup 🚨

Wall Street is currently throwing $21 price targets at $INFQ, but our structural analysis suggests they may be missing the bigger picture.

Here’s the blueprint for how we’re looking at the deep-tech quantum cycle over the next 4 years:

📉 THE TRAP — Now to March 2027

Currently sitting around $12.13, $INFQ could remain dead money in the near term. Our EV model suggests we’re still stuck in the “Fundamental Grind.”

The biggest risks are the SPAC dilution overhang and a potential required capital raise by mid-2027.

Our approach: Don’t buy the current dip. Let the market absorb the cash burn and dilution risk first.

🎯 THE ENTRY — The Sniper Zone | March ’27 – Nov ’27

Between Fib 13 and Fib 21, we expect the potential capital raise to create maximum fear and dilution pressure.

Our Monte Carlo model targets a possible capitulation zone around:

🎯 $8.90 – $10.00

This 8-month window is where we would look to aggressively accumulate if the thesis continues to play out.

We’re waiting to buy max fear — not chasing today.

🚀 THE RE-RATING — Nov ’27 – Dec ’28

By Fib 21 (Nov ’27), the balance sheet could be repaired and the market may begin front-running the major 2028 DARPA/NVIDIA software catalysts.

If $INFQ successfully pivots from lower-margin hardware toward higher-margin software, we could see a significant multiple re-rating.

Targets from our planned entry zone:

🔹 T1 — Sell 30%: $20.78 | +71%

🔹 T2 — Sell 40%: $25.23 | +108%

🛸 THE MOONSHOT RUNNER — 2030+

The final 30% stays as a long-term runner with a trailing stop.

If the company successfully reaches 50+ Logical Qubits by 2030, the Fib 34–55 expansion opens the door toward:

🎯 $28.38+ | +134%

TL;DR: We’re avoiding $INFQ at current levels. The plan is to stay patient, let the potential 2027 capital raise wash out weak hands, look to accumulate around $9–$10, and position for the potential 2028 software re-rating.

Time the value. Don’t chase the story. 🎯

$CRM 200C 8/21 Trade Recap 📈

This is how D and Pump analyzed $CRM last week and executed the trade on Thursday.

They waited for the setup, followed the plan, and let price come to them. No chasing, just disciplined execution.

Those who left runners and held overnight were rewarded with 100%+ gains. 🚀

This is exactly what TTO is about: plan first, execute second.

🌾 $ADM — Archer-Daniels-Midland | Asymmetric Turnaround Thesis

ADM is the invisible giant of the global food supply chain, buying raw crops like corn and soybeans and processing them into key ingredients, animal feeds, and biofuels used in everyday supermarket products.

📈 Bull Thesis

The opportunity lies in buying this essential company at a bargain price following a recent accounting scandal that is now settled.

The scandal discount continues to weigh on the stock even as the operational and legal risks have largely faded, creating an attractive setup where downside appears limited relative to the potential upside.

🎯 The Most Probable Path

The stock is most likely to climb toward:

🟢 $103 by late 2026 — +29%

🟢 $142 by 2027 — +78%

🚀 $159 by 2028 — +98% Bull Case

The potential recovery is supported by several catalysts:

🌾 Crop-Processing Recovery — A recovery in ADM’s core crop-processing profits could drive earnings higher.

🥗 Plant Protein Demand — Food companies buying more plant proteins to serve changing consumer diets, including demand tied to the growing adoption of weight-loss drugs.

🇪🇺 European Regulation — Strict new European shipping rules could create additional barriers for smaller competitors and strengthen ADM’s competitive positioning.

💰 Risk / Reward Profile

🔴 Downside Risk: -15%

Bear floor near $68, around tangible book value / scandal-low territory.

🟢 2026 Base Case: +29%

$103 target — ~2:1 Reward-to-Risk

🟢 2027 Base Case: +78%

$142 target — ~5:1 Reward-to-Risk

🚀 2028 Bull Case: +98%

$159 target — ~6.5:1 Reward-to-Risk

🛡️ Downside Protection

ADM has hard-asset backing and 51 consecutive years of dividend increases, with an approximately 40% payout ratio, providing additional support to the long-term thesis.

🌾 The Bottom Line

ADM represents a classic asymmetric turnaround: a market leader whose scandal discount persists even after much of the operational and legal uncertainty has faded.

With stacked catalysts driving a potential earnings recovery and a roughly 5:1 reward-to-risk profile through 2027, ADM offers compelling risk-adjusted value.

Every $1 of downside risk is balanced by roughly $5 of base-case upside through 2027. 🌾📈