You can pick winners and still go broke
Most recreational bettors do not lose because they cannot pick a side. They lose because the stake is random.
A $50 win on Saturday and a $200 chase on Sunday is not a bad run. It is no system.
Three rules that stop that:
Pick a unit before you pick a game. 1% of bankroll. If you have $1,000, a unit is $10. Every play is 1, 2, or 3 units. Never "this one feels bigger."
Cap the day. Three units max, even if a fourth look is screaming. Sitting out is a decision. It is not missing out.
Shop the line or skip the bet. A 1.90 and a 2.05 on the same side are not the same bet. If you cannot get your number, pass.
Track closing line vs the price you took. If you keep beating close, the process is working even on a red week. If you keep taking worse numbers, the picks were never the problem.
Process first. Picks second.
