The underwriting mistake that kills most first-time value-add deals
Most new multifamily operators underwrite the renovation. Almost nobody underwrites the lease-up sequencing.
Here's the thing: you can have a perfect budget — $9,500/unit, 15% contingency, standardized finish package — and still lose money if you renovate faster than you can lease.
Vacancy is the hidden cost that doesn't show up in a spreadsheet until it's already hurt you. Every unit sitting empty during a turn is negative cash flow, full stop — it doesn't matter how nice the new flooring is.
The fix is boring but it works: sequence your unit turns around actual lease expirations, not around contractor availability. Only pull the trigger on the next batch of turns once you have committed leases (or at minimum strong showings) on the current batch.
It's slower. It's also the difference between a value-add deal that pencils and one that quietly bleeds cash for 18 months.
Curious how others here are sequencing turns on their current deals — what's your rule of thumb for how many units you'll have vacant at once?
