Been deep in NFT/Web3 collecting long enough to watch a lot of "guaranteed" projects go to zero. Here's the filter I run every single project through before I even bother applying for a WL spot:

1. Does the team have skin in the game beyond the mint?

If the roadmap ends at "secondary market moon," that's a red flag. Real projects have a reason to exist post-mint — a product, a game, a protocol, a brand. If minting IS the business model, treat it like a lottery ticket, not an investment.

2. Is the utility already live, or is it all promises?

Anyone can put "gaming," "staking," or "IRL merch" on a roadmap slide. I want to see something functional — even an ugly MVP — before I put money in. Vaporware roadmaps are the #1 pattern behind rugs I've watched play out.

3. Who's actually holding, and are they talking or dumping?

Check the top holder wallets. Are the founders' wallets active in the community, engaging, building — or silent and slowly offloading? On-chain activity doesn't lie even when Discord hype does.

If a project passes all three, it goes on my watchlist. If it fails even one, I pass — no matter how loud the hype is.

Been building a small community around this kind of vetting + whitelist access for collectors who'd rather be right than early. Happy to answer questions on any project you're currently evaluating.