How to find expected value when betting on sports

To stand any chance of becoming a profitable gambler, you need a responsive online betting app, well-researched picks and predictions, a solid staking plan, and a proven betting strategy. But all those are worth nothing without knowing how to get the expected value each time you gamble. To make a profit, you must bet at the best odds available, sometimes known as value-hunting.

Finding the expected value and making sure your stake works as hard as possible on your behalf is easier said than done. The leading gamblers and professional bettors only risk their stake when they’re getting the odds they believe they deserve. They use their experience, skills, hacks, and industry secrets to bolster their chances of landing a winner. 

Are you looking for advice on how to elevate your gambling game, copy the professionals, and secure the expected value every time you bet on sports? You’ve found the right page. 

The latest article published in Whop’s popular gambling series has everything you need to get the value. We explain why getting the value is important, where to find the best odds, and more. It’s all in one place.

Expected value explained

What is the expected value in betting? It’s an interesting subject, but in simple terms, it’s getting the odds you deserve each time you gamble and making sure your potential returns from a bet are as high as possible. Finding a winner when betting on sports isn’t easy, and when you do beat the bookies, you want to be paid the right amount.

Knowing how to get the value every time you gamble is to understand how betting odds work in the sportsbook market. If you look at any popular market, you’ll find traders working at the top betting apps offer slightly different odds on the same outcome. 

One bookmaker may consider a team certain to win and keep their odds as low as possible while ensuring they’re competitive in the market. A competitor may see the event as a little more open and make their odds more balanced.

When gambling on a sports event and making your predictions, you shouldn’t take the first odds offered to you. It’s advisable to shop around - known as line shopping - to compare all offers and bet with the bookie giving the highest odds. 

Backing a sports winner is great, but how happy would you be if you bet $10 at odds of +1,000 when you could’ve bet $10 at odds of +2,000 with another app? Bookmakers already hold all the aces and have the advantages stacked in their favor. The house wins even when it loses.

That’s why it’s important not to give them another edge by taking smaller odds than you deserve for your prediction. Betting on a pick at odds of +1,000 when there’s +1,100 available may not seem like a big deal, but those small margins soon add up over time and could be the difference between profit and loss at the end of the year or the season. 

Professional and profitable gamblers ensure they get the best odds each time they gamble, and that’s a simple rule you can follow, even when betting for fun.

Expected value example

To help you better understand how betting odds work and why it’s important to always look for value, I’ll highlight the Super Bowl betting odds available in December 2024. We’ll use the betting favorite, the Detroit Lions, as our example.

Check out the table below:

As you can see from the five major bookmakers used in the example above, the general price for the Detroit Lions to win the 2025 Super Bowl is +275, meaning a $10 bet would return $37.50. But if you shop around, you could get $40 or even $45 for the same wager on the same team. 

Why would you want $37.50 instead of $45 for doing the same job? You wouldn’t, and that’s why you must do the homework needed to ensure you are getting the most for your money when betting on sports.

Finding the betting value

Now we know why it’s important to get the value each time you risk your stake by gambling on sports, let’s move on to finding the value. You want the best and biggest odds each time you wager, but where do you find that information? 

There are several approaches, but some work better than others. If you’re eager to save time, you can adopt a few tricks of the trade. 

Your first option is to choose the team you wish to bet on and visit as many of the leading sportsbooks as possible. Write down the odds they offer on your pick or add them to a spreadsheet, and then use an odds calculator to see which offer has the highest possible returns for your stake. When you have that information, you know which bookie to bet with to get the value. You can then register an account, deposit funds, and wager.

Line shopping around all your favorite betting apps is a sound approach, but do you have the time to visit multiple betting apps and record the odds? What if the price changes in the time it takes you to research all odds? What if you miss one app from your list, or you’ve left it late and the game is about to begin? 

There’s got to be a better way, and I’m glad to report that there is a simpler approach.

Professional gamblers ensure they always get the highest odds and the expected value by using a betting odds comparison app. There are a few available, but it pays to use the right one. A betting odds comparison site must be responsive, quick, and accurate to ensure you have the latest and most reliable information. 

A great site to use when searching for the best betting is Oddschecker. There, you’ll find a list of respected bookmakers available in your area with details of the prices available. You can then browse the options and see which is the highest offer.

In the screenshot above, we see betting on the Oleksandr Usyk vs Tyson Fury world heavyweight championship boxing match from the Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. As expected, there’s a range of odds available on both fighters and the draw. 

We see as short as 1.57 (-175 American Odds) and as high as 1.72 (-139) on Usyk to win the fight. Bet $100 at the shortest price and get back $157. Make the same bet at the bookie with the highest odds and get $172 back. That’s a difference of $15 for every $100 bet on the same selection. If you took a $15 loss on every bet you placed, that would soon add up to a sizeable loss.

As you can see, bettors sometimes lose even when they win, and that’s why you must pay close attention to your bets and the odds offered.

Right stake for the right odds

Finding the expected betting value doesn’t just give you a chance at landing a higher return when backing a winner. It also allows you to adjust your stake and still have the opportunity to earn a decent profit.

You must get the right stake for the right bet. You want the risk to be as low as possible for the greatest return. That’s especially important when you’re working off a staking plan. If you bet on a betting favorite to win at odds of +100, you need a decent-sized stake to make it work. But if you find the same pick at odds of +200, you can risk less.

Staking plans are crucial to online bettors who are serious about making a profit. Getting the best odds allows you to protect your stake. My helpful article for Whop explains all about creating a staking plan.

Having the best odds working in your favor has many benefits. It improves your chances of cashing out for a profit, places you in a stronger position when betting on the futures markets, and makes it easier to cover your bet to guarantee a return. Getting the top offer - no matter how small the difference - is one of the most important and sensible things you can do when gambling on sports.

Bagging the value in parlays

Finding the value when betting on singles is simple. Here’s a recap of how to ensure you get the best deal every time:

1. Choose the team or player you wish to bet on.
2. Visit a betting odds comparison app to see which bookie has the best odds.
3. Join or log in to that sportsbook and place your bet.
4. If your pick wins, you get the highest returns possible for that selection.

Things get a little more complicated when gambling on parlays. But it’s still possible to ensure you get the price you deserve. Here’s how to get the expected value on parlays:

1. Choose the teams or players you wish to bet on.
2. Search your preferred gambling odds comparison app for the best prices.
3. Find the bookie that’s biggest on most of the legs in your parlay.
4. Visit that sportsbook and create your parlay.

Getting the value on parlays takes just a little more time as you must check the best odds on each selection and then find the app that’s biggest on the majority of your legs. It’s unlikely you’ll find a bookmaker with the biggest odds on each prediction, but it is possible. If not, you find an app that gives you the best overall odds, even if they’re not best on some legs.

Sports high in betting value

Which sports traditionally offer the highest betting value? That’s an important question, as many bettors like to gamble on the sports they enjoy watching and following most.

But what if there was another way?

What if you loved the NFL and watched every game live on television, but you could make a regular profit by line shopping and gambling on another sport you have no interest in, like cricket, for example? You can then watch football as a fan and bet on cricket to increase your chances of getting the value and making a profit. 

Knowing which sports have the best gambling value is a useful tool in your quest to beat the bookies and end the year in profit. I gathered some information on the general odds available in the most common sports covered by bookies and added my findings to the table below. You can start betting on these sports now and will enjoy competitive odds.

Desktop vs app for value

When searching for the value, is it better to use a desktop computer and betting websites or your smartphone and gambling apps?

The platform you use to bet is a matter of personal preference, and both have advantages. When studying the odds, stats, results, and promotions, it pays to use your laptop's bigger screen. You can take your time browsing the options before deciding on your pick and finding the best odds.

Many gamblers prefer to gamble using an Android or iOS smartphone by downloading the betting app, meaning they’re always just a few clicks away from a wager. As betting odds can move fast and respond to public reaction, timing is key to securing the best odds. Having the convenience of a smartphone app in your pocket allows you to get your stake down at the right time, securing the best odds even when you’re on the move.

Testing if a promo is value

The online gambling market is awash with promotions and special offers. There’s cashback, profit boosts, extra places each way, parlay insurance, risk-free bets, deposit-matched free bets, and more. But not every betting promo is as good as it seems. 

Suppose you visit your usual betting app and notice an eye-catching promotion that offers enhanced odds on your favorite team or the favorite in the Kentucky Derby. It looks like a generous offer, and you quickly deposit funds, input your stake, and confirm the bet. You’re now on at a price that’s bigger than was available yesterday. But is that price really value?

Many betting promos, like enhanced odds, are little more than marketing tools to encourage you to place a bet. Bookies use favorites in big races or events to excite the gambler and convince customers they’re getting the value. But betting on the favorite in a huge event like the Kentucky Derby isn’t always the best approach. 

When taking enhanced odds on a pick, you must ask yourself a question: Would you have bet on the same selection if the bookie hadn’t boosted the odds? If the answer is no, you probably shouldn’t allow yourself to be talked into gambling at the higher offer.

If you do fancy the bet and want to get your stake down at the enhanced odds, you must first check if the offer is as generous as it claims to be. The easiest way to do that is to check your selection using a betting odds comparison app. Is the enhanced odds the best available in the market, or is another bookie offering better without selling it as a price boost?

I’ve already said it in this article, and I make no apologies for repeating myself, as it’s important: Do as much homework as necessary before risking your cash on a bet.

Trust Whop to boost your bets

You know now the importance of getting the best price and expected value every time you gamble on sports. But it’s only useful if you can find winning picks. Backing an overpriced loser is of no use to anyone. That’s why you must fully research your bets or follow the professionals.

Beating the bookies takes hours of research, checking the stats, league standings, head-to-head scores, player injuries, weather, a team’s schedule, and plenty more. Do you have the time to dive into the numbers every time you gamble on sports like football, horse racing, and soccer? Giving bets anything less than your full attention gives your betting app another strong advantage, making it even more difficult to earn a regular profit.

Thankfully, there’s another way, and I want to share that information with my readers.

The Whop sports picks category is home to several respected and profitable gamblers who are happy to do the research and groundwork on your behalf. There’s a list of winning bettors you can follow on several sports, markets, and types of bets, from super singles to parlays with big odds attached.

Ready to get serious about beating the bookies and making your sports bets pay? Join the sports betting communities at Whop and follow the experts.

Whop brings you experience

As legalized and regulated sports online betting continues to stretch across the United States, millions of citizens are discovering the thrill of a wager. Beating the bookies is the main aim, but making a regular profit from your bets is no mean feat. There’s much more to being a wise bettor than simply picking winners.

Betting can be a daunting and confusing place, especially if you lack experience using betting apps and sportsbook websites. That’s why Whop has enlisted the help of betting industry expert, reliable tipster, and former professional sportsman Frank Monkhouse.

Frank competed at a high level in sports before retiring and starting a successful career in the sports betting industry. He has worked in many important roles, including content editor at a major sportsbook, manager at a high-street sportsbook in the United Kingdom, and a freelance betting writer. He now shares his in-depth bookie reviews, gambling guides, and experience with Whop readers.